Heath Haussamen
Until reform gives third-party candidates a realistic chance to become viable, perhaps spoilers are our best hope of keeping the two-party system in check.
After securing the Libertarian Party’s nomination for president this weekend, former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson insisted that he could win the race if the media lets him into nationally televised debates.
“If that happens, I want to suggest to you that anything can happen,” the Albuquerque Journal quoted Johnson as saying. “I’m honored to have the nomination, and I wouldn’t be doing it if I didn’t think I could win…”
I’ve already written that, as the Libertarian candidate, Johnson could impact the race. But I also wrote about a potential path to victory for him when he was a Republican candidate that ended up not coming to fruition:
“Johnson is someone who shares the tea party’s ideology but has actually had to balance that ideology with governing in a practical way. His candidacy may present a moment for the tea party to decide its future.
“…I have my doubts about whether the tea party movement is prepared to follow someone like Johnson. And even if the movement is ready, Johnson’s positions on social issues will make the road ahead difficult for him.
“Perhaps it’s likely that Johnson’s presidential campaign will go nowhere. But I think there’s also a chance, if the tea party gathers around him, that he will become a significant candidate – and the tea party will become a lasting force.”
Well, Johnson didn’t become a significant candidate in the GOP race, thanks in part to the machine that protects the warring two-party system – a machine that included the national media and, in this instance, the Republican Party.
Johnson is too liberal on social issues for the most active GOP primary voters, so the powers-that-be decided early on that he wasn’t to be taken seriously. His GOP campaign was doomed.
‘Everybody says they want a viable alternative’
Johnson is running the best campaign he can now. A record-high 40 percent of Americans identified as independents in 2011 and are fed up with the two-party system. Johnson’s campaign website opens with this phrase:
“Everybody says they want a viable alternative to America’s two-party chokehold. Everybody – meet Gary Johnson. The two-party is over.”
Maybe there is, someday, a chance of that happening, if most people outside the two-party system rally around one candidate. But the Americans Elect movement doesn’t list Johnson as a declared candidate for its nomination that will place a yet-to-be-named candidate on the ballot in many states.
While Johnson is likely to be on the ballot in all 50 states, he may not be the automatic alternative to the two major parties.
Here’s a dose of reality from Reuters:
“The Libertarians’ best presidential showing came in 1980 when nominee Ed Clark won 921,128 votes or 1.1 percent. In the 2008 election, party nominee Bob Barr, a former Republican congressman, got 523,686 votes or 0.4 percent.”
‘The distinct and alarming traits of a spoiler’
Now, I think Johnson can and very well may do better than any Libertarian in history. Here’s what I wrote about him earlier this year in my Tea Party column:
“Johnson is intelligent and articulate; he’s athletic and hip (he climbed Mount Everest with a broken leg); he will be viewed as honest (he’s very open about his past drug use). He has potential in most categories that lead to likeability. That’s far different than the situation with Ron Paul and his son.
“Johnson has a very simple message for America: We’re bankrupt, we’re on the verge of financial collapse, and we have to balance the budget, no matter what it takes. It’s a message that will resonate with many.
“And he has the experience to back up his message: He’s made difficult choices, cut government waste and vetoed hundreds of bills…”
The Daily Beast suggests Johnson could “shake up 2012:”
“In an era of infinite political dysfunction, Johnson is rolling the dice with a brand of fiscal responsibility and social tolerance that could make him a real threat in November.
“… Johnson has been polling between 6 and 9 percent nationally, a number just large enough to cover most Obama-Romney spreads. His name is expected to appear on ballots in all 50 states, and unlike the president and Mitt Romney, Johnson will spend the next six months speaking freely in language unmolested by establishment advisers or influential special interests. As the predictable election trench war digs in, the unassuming New Mexican is taking on the distinct and alarming traits of a spoiler.”
Spoiler it may be, particularly in New Mexico, where Johnson’s name recognition might win him a higher percentage of votes than other states. Polls haven’t yet shown that New Mexico is a swing state this year, and while I expect the presidential race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney to tighten, Romney isn’t the type of conservative who blue-leaning New Mexicans generally rally behind.
Johnson is… or at least used to be.
I’m not saying Johnson can or will win New Mexico. But he’ll be on the ballot and make it more difficult for Romney to compete here.
Johnson has some liberal appeal, but he ensured that he will win more conservative support than liberal backing when he accepted the Libertarian nomination.
Forcing Republicans to rethink who they nominate
I don’t think third-party hopefuls shouldn’t run simply because they might spoil the chances of a mainstream candidate who leans their way. We’re never going to fix our political system if we don’t fight against the machine that unfairly keeps the two parties in power without forcing them to earn that right.
Johnson has almost zero chance of winning the race. The best he can do is keep Romney from winning. And that might force Republicans to rethink who they nominate for president, just as Ralph Nader has done for Democrats in recent elections and Ross Perot did for both parties in the 1990s.
Until reform gives third-party candidates a realistic chance to become viable, perhaps spoilers are our best hope of keeping the two-party system in check.