Heather Wilson, left, and Greg Sowards
Heather Wilson has a half million dollars more than Greg Sowards and widespread support, but John Sanchez’s departure from the Republican U.S. Senate primary creates a narrow window of opportunity for Sowards.
The anti-Heather Wilson wing of the Republican Party cost her the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2008.
Wilson knows it, and she’s worked hard this time around to build support she didn’t have in 2008. That started the day she entered the 2012 race and announced the endorsement of former U.S. Rep. Bill Redmond, a leader among the state’s social conservatives.
Wilson has worked hard to win endorsements from across the GOP spectrum, with astonishing success. In January, N.M. House Minority Leader Tom Taylor of Farmington became the 20th state representative out of 33 Republicans to endorse Wilson.
More importantly, on Friday, State Sen. Bill Sharer of Farmington joined the rest of his caucus in endorsing her.
“Congresswoman Heather Wilson is the obvious choice for U.S. Senate,” Sharer said. “She has the experience and will be a solid voice for the people of New Mexico. I am happy to offer my endorsement. Heather has the knowledge of the issues, statesmanship and the right positions on critical issues facing our nation.”
The endorsement from one of the most socially conservative members of the Legislature is especially significant because it came 14 hours after NMPolitics.net broke the news that Lt. Gov. John Sanchez plans to end his Senate campaign.
Some of the last holdouts – those hoping for a credible option other than Wilson – appear ready to join the likely winner’s camp.
Sanchez’s departure creates an opening
There was an opportunity early on for a candidate to consolidate anti-Wilson support, but while Sanchez and Greg Sowards battled for that position, Wilson solidified and grew her base.
She’s been the obvious frontrunner all along and only grown stronger as time has passed, which is one of the reasons Sanchez’s campaign never gained traction.
But a two-person race between Wilson and Sowards could be interesting.
I’ve watched Sowards, a Las Cruces businessman and inventor, since 2008, when he ran, unsuccessfully, for the 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House.
I’ve always thought Sowards is an intriguing candidate with potential. He’s genuine, he’s quirky, he has unique ideas, and he’s a true believer. As the TEA Party has risen, Sowards has emerged with it as a homegrown candidate.
But Sowards has never been able to turn that potential into success. He received the support of only 1 percent of delegates at the preprimary convention in 2008. He went on to win 17 percent of the primary vote but lost the five-way race. He later lost a county commission race.
Now he’s the only anti-Wilson candidate in the Senate race. He has more than $600,000 to spend, if he chooses. And, in the last poll of the race, 39 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided or pledged support for a candidate who is no longer in the race.
In other words, Sanchez’s departure from the race creates an opening for Sowards. But the window is narrow. Sowards has to strike now.
Because Wilson is moving quickly. Sharer’s endorsement shows that.
Sowards gets aggressive
I don’t know whether Sowards can become a serious challenger to Wilson. He has almost entirely self-financed his campaign, so he hasn’t demonstrated that he has a base of support.
But he’s trying. Sowards has become much more aggressive in recent weeks, portraying himself as a conservative outsider and Wilson as a Washington insider with a not-so-conservative record. He appears to realize the urgency of the situation.
“Heather was unelectable in 2008. Nothing has changed on that score. She is a flawed candidate. Her vote for the TARP bailout has doomed her chances for victory in November,” Sowards said last week in a news release. “Voters in the primary are starting to realize that and want a candidate without the baggage Wilson has.”
He also attacked Wilson at a recent GOP event in San Miguel County. Check out this video, provided by the Democratic Party of New Mexico:
Wilson is in an enviable position
I’m no fan of negative campaigning, but candidates sometimes use it because they believe it’s the only path to victory. The last poll had Wilson above 50 percent. Sowards won’t win without pulling support away from her.
And he has to do it now. If he doesn’t display an impressive level of support at next month’s preprimary convention, the race will be over.
Sowards isn’t likely to succeed. Wilson has half a million dollars more than Sowards, she has demonstrated widespread support by raising all of her cash from outside sources, and she has a long, long, long list of endorsements.
But Sanchez’s departure from the race creates an opening for Sowards. If he wants to seriously pursue his long-shot chance of beating Wilson, he has to start spending that $600,000 now. He has to win over preprimary delegates. He has to build a base of support and convince primary voters that he can be a credible general-election candidate.
Wilson remains in an enviable position. But it’s not quite time to call the race.