Heath Haussamen
The National Republican Congressional Committee caught my attention on Monday when it announced TV ad buys in 45 of the most hotly contested House districts, but left New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce off its list.
Why would the organization do that? The race is neck and neck in recent polls. Early voting starts today. It’s crunch time.
The NRCC was on the radio attacking Teague 16 months before Election Day. This race has been on the radar. It’s a seat Republicans believe should be theirs, and they have been working hard to regain it.
So I can’t help but wonder if the NRCC believes the race has slipped out of Pearce’s hands – or that it’s feeling so optimistic about Pearce’s chances that it believes its resources can be diverted to other races at this time.
The second is more likely.
Pearce has done a good job of raising his own cash. But more importantly, recent polls indicate that the race has shifted from leaning in Teague’s favor to being a statistical tie.
Teague was leading by 7 points in a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll in early September. More recent polls conducted for the left-leaning Daily Kos and for the Albuquerque Journal both had Pearce leading by 1 point.
Examining the polls
There are some interesting nuggets to examine in the polls. In the Journal poll, most GOP voters had already made up their minds, but 15 percent of Democrats and 17 percent of independents were undecided. The majority of voters in this district are Democrats, but in recent history they’ve usually sent Republicans to Washington. Pearce already has more Democratic support than Teague has Republican support, and there seems to be a chance that Democrats who haven’t already decided to vote for Teague might pick Pearce – or they might not vote at all.
On the flip side, Teague has crossover appeal that could help him snag a higher percentage of the undecided voters. In the Daily Kos poll, Pearce led by only one point, but the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Susana Martinez, led by 23 points in the 2nd District. That means many voters say they’re voting for Martinez and Teague. Teague also grabs a higher percentage of McCain voters than Pearce does Obama voters.
Then again, Pearce has won over a larger share of independents who have made up their mind, so there’s a good chance he’ll win a larger share of the undecided independents than Teague.
Teague has a big lead among younger voters, while Pearce leads among older voters. And that helps point to a reality that the NRCC may be watching.
Even though the Journal didn’t give us numbers for the most likely voters in its poll of this race like it did for other races it recently polled, I’m guessing that Pearce’s lead increases when you look only at the most likely voters – those who voted in both 2006 and 2008.
Pearce’s killer ad, Teague’s endorsements
I still believe this race is a toss-up, but it’s one that has been definitely shifting toward Pearce in recent weeks. And Pearce just came out with a killer ad attacking Teague for cutting health insurance for employees of his company while taking about $3 million in dividend payments for himself.
It’s the sort of ad that will have a tangible effect on the race.
On the flip side, there’s been lots of good news for Teague in recent days. He’s been endorsed by the daily newspapers in Las Cruces and Alamogordo and by the National Rifle Association.
The sentiment of the Las Cruces Sun-News, which endorsed Teague’s GOP opponent in 2008, explains why Teague is hanging on in a conservative-favoring climate:
“Teague, who this year is facing Pearce, has won us over, in large part, due to his incredible work ethic. The indefatigable congressman returned to the district each weekend but four during his first two years in office. He conducted 110 Harry in Your Hometown events in towns large and small throughout the Second District, giving residents ample opportunity to make their voices heard. We doubt if Pearce held as many public events during his six years in office.
“Beyond that, Teague has proved to be an effective, independent legislator who was attuned to the values and beliefs of his district. He went against his party leadership on its signature issue – the health care reform bill – arguing that it did not do enough to lower costs. Teague was also one of 31 Democrats in the House to sign a letter urging that all Bush-era tax cuts be extended, including for those making more than $250,000 a year. Rankings by the National Journal Magazine found Teague to be one of the most centrist members of the House. He was 10th among Democrats in the ‘most conservative’ category.
“Pearce, by contrast, compiled a voting record of rigid ideology, only straying from party leadership on those few occasions when he deemed their position to be not conservative enough.”
This race is still up for grabs, but Teague needs to reverse the recent trend toward Pearce. The endorsements may be a start, but we’ll need more polling to know.
If, however, the recent trend continues, Pearce could be firmly in control when Election Day arrives.