Susana Martinez
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez may be the “most frightening” candidate in the nation for Democrats in 2010, writes Molly Ball on Slate.com.
In addition, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza has added the New Mexico gubernatorial race to the list of contests that are most likely to result in a party switch this fall.
That means the national media is starting to pay attention to what has already been clear in New Mexico: Martinez and Democrat Diane Denish are locked in a hotly contested gubernatorial race that probably leans in Martinez’s favor, at least for the time being.
And it matters beyond the usual reasons gubernatorial races matter: The next governor will have to approve redistricting (which includes congressional districts) and will be a prominent voice in the national immigration debate. In addition, if Martinez wins, she would become a national GOP superstar who might have potential beyond the Roundhouse.
Ball wrote that Martinez, if she wins, “will be the first female Hispanic governor in U.S. history – and an instant national GOP spokeswoman.” Ball wrote this about the bigger picture:
“In addition to Martinez, who currently leads in the polls and has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, there’s Marco Rubio, the Tea Party favorite who drove Gov. Charlie Crist out of the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Florida, and Brian Sandoval, a former judge who holds a big lead in the Nevada gubernatorial race. Sure, that’s only three candidates. But in the 74 elections this year for governor or U.S. Senate—not all of them competitive—there are no Democratic Hispanic nominees. ‘Republicans have done a great job of recruiting Hispanic candidates,’ one Democratic strategist told me. ‘They are giving us a big wakeup call this year.’”
Ball reminds us that more than 90 percent of Hispanics in partisan offices in America are Democrats. However, “when your top Hispanic contender in the country’s most populous state is a candidate for superintendent of public instruction – not exactly an office with the prominence of governor – then you may tend to focus on the number of candidates instead of the offices they’re running for. As Democrats look to repeat 2008’s historic turnout, they may find that Hispanics will make a big difference in November – but maybe not in quite the way they’d prefer.”
Cillizza, writing on The Fix, ranked New Mexico’s governorship as the 15th most likely to change parties this fall. Here’s what he wrote:
“Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez’s (R) latest TV ad pretty much sums up the race: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) is struggling to separate herself from the unpopular administration of Gov. Bill Richardson (D) while Martinez is running as an outsider who will shake up the system. Polls show the race is still neck-and-neck, but unless Denish can find a way to change the topic away from Richardson this could be perilous for Democrats in the fall.”
It’s the first time the race has been on Cillizza’s list. I won’t be surprised if he ranks it higher next time around.