Denish looms large; GOP primary still wide open

And Heather Wilson’s still a factor, according to pollster and analyst Brian Sanderoff

Diane Denish is still a giant. Heather Wilson’s indecision on whether to run for governor has sidelined some money but not enough to sink others’ chances. The four Republicans who have declared for governor are still in the hunt.

That’s the bottom line for New Mexico pollster and analyst Brian Sanderoff after seeing the results of the campaign finance reports filed Tuesday in the governor’s race. It was a first look at which of the GOP candidates can come up with the money to compete. Sanderoff said it’s clear that the primary race is still wide open.

“We’ve got four candidates with very diverse backgrounds and profiles, and so it’s way too early to start handicapping this race, in my opinion,” Sanderoff said.

Of the GOP candidates, Allen Weh led the way in fundraising from May to October, coming up with about $560,000, with $250,000 of that a personal loan. Doug Turner came in with just under $342,000, with the bulk of it – about $243,500 – personal loans.

Susana Martinez raised almost $144,000, while Janice Arnold-Jones raised just over $23,000.

Diane Denish, the likely Democratic nominee for governor, looms large above them all. If you don’t count in-kind contributions, she raised more than all the GOP candidates combined — $931,300.11 to their $912,955.57. She ended the reporting period with about $2.2 million on hand, while the GOP candidates had a combined total of about $722,000.

Sanderoff said that isn’t surprising. Some people contribute to campaigns because they share a candidate’s beliefs, but some do it for more pragmatic reasons.

“It’s easier to raise money when you’re perceived as having a good shot at being the next governor,” he said.

Denish currently has no primary opponent, so potential donors are “getting on board earlier” than they are on the GOP side, Sanderoff said.

Denish Campaign Manager Oren Shur said Denish is in such a strong position because “most New Mexicans want to make progress” and “recognize that Lt. Gov. Denish has a record they can count on.”

“No matter which way you look at it, New Mexicans are excited about only one candidate for governor right now and it’s Diane Denish,” he said. “What Lt. Gov. Denish knows, and our opponents haven’t figured out, is that you build grassroots support by putting forward good ideas for the future – not by shouting negative attacks every chance you get.”

Fighting between Martinez, Dems

Martinez has led the attacks against Denish, and has authored two hard-hitting commentaries. Weh has also joined the fray.

The state Democratic Party fired back at Martinez on Wednesday in a news release, pointing out that all but nine of Martinez’s financial contributions came from the 2nd Congressional District. The party’s executive director, Josh Geise, said Martinez “has yet to show a grasp of statewide issues or anything that remotely resembles a statewide base of support,” adding that it’s “simply hard to take her seriously as a statewide candidate.”

Denish had twice as many donors as Martinez in the 2nd District, according to the release, and 2,835 in the rest of the state to Martinez’s nine.

The news release probably came in part because Martinez has been hammering Denish, Sanderoff said, but he suspects the Democrats are also “a little nervous, perhaps,” about taking on “another woman, a Hispanic who would cater to crossover voters” in a general-election contest.

“If she was so regional, why do they see the need to attack her in a news release?” Sanderoff asked. He added that most of the state doesn’t know much about Martinez, “but that doesn’t mean she couldn’t be a very formidable candidate in a general election, because the Republican Party will come together for the general no matter which candidate wins the primary.”

One noteworthy fact about Martinez’s fundraising is that she has been touting support in the Farmington area and on the east side of the state. While campaign contributions back up her claim of east-side support, she didn’t have a single contribution from the Farmington area.

Spokesman Danny Diaz said Martinez has upcoming events in the Farmington area. He said the political support she has there will “manifest itself in financial support in the near future.”

Diaz said Democrats are right to take seriously the candidacy of Doña Ana County’s district attorney because she has won races in an “overwhelmingly Democratic county where Republicans are outnumbered 3-1” and “has a track record of addressing the critical issues confronting the state.”

And Diaz pointed out that Martinez raised funds from individual donors at roughly the same rate as Weh if you consider that she hasn’t been in the race as long as the former state GOP chairman.

Self-financing ‘sure doesn’t hurt’

Sanderoff also noted the money Weh and Turner have put into their own campaigns – something Martinez and Arnold-Jones don’t have the ability to do.

“Whether this is seed money or whether this is a sign of what’s to come in the future with these two candidates remains unknown, but two of these candidates have personal wealth and are using some of that money,” he said. “Personal wealth does not by any means guarantee a victory, but it sure doesn’t hurt.”

Weh also had more individual contributions than any other candidate. While Martinez came in second with about 230, Weh had about 600. Weh was the first GOP candidate in the race, and spokesman Christopher Sanchez said that’s paying off.

“We’re running early and we’re running hard and it’s starting to show,” he said. “Raising money early and getting organized has given us the ability to be a very viable campaign.”

Sanchez said he wouldn’t call Weh the frontrunner, but winning the general election is “going to take someone who has the experience in fundraising and campaigning to beat Denish.” At this point, he said, Weh “has the funds in place to execute his campaign plan.”

“Allen Weh’s message is really resonating. And we feel really good about the support we’re receiving,” he said.

Turner agreed with Sanderoff that the race is wide open. He hasn’t yet focused on fundraising, instead using his own money to get started. Turner has confirmed he’s running for governor but not yet made a formal announcement. He expects to raise money “in earnest” after he formally enters the race.

In the meantime, Turner has been traveling the state. He said the response to his candidacy has been “extremely positive.”

“There is a very strong desire for a young freshness in this race, someone with new ideas, someone with energy and someone without significant political baggage,” he said.

Arnold-Jones is ‘not discouraged’

Arnold-Jones doesn’t have nearly as much cash as the other candidates.

“When you start as the underdog, I’m not sure you can allow yourself to worry about it as much. The lieutenant governor has a lot of money. It doesn’t make her the person that is best to lead the state,” Arnold-Jones said. “Money alone should not be the only qualifier for leading this state. If that was the only qualifier, my goodness, some good people would have been cut out.”

She noted that a preprimary convention will come before the primary and some 400 Republicans will decide who gets to appear on the ballot. Money may not be as critical in that contest, she said, and she’s confident about getting the support she needs to appear on the ballot.

“But do I think after the preprimary it will take half a million dollars? Yes I do. I have a long ways to go,” Arnold-Jones said. “I’m not discouraged and my team’s not discouraged. We thought this is where we would be.”

The Wilson factor

Sanderoff noted the elephant in the room: Wilson, the former Republican congresswoman from Albuquerque, says she’s still thinking about running for governor. Sanderoff said she would be the “perceived frontrunner” on name recognition alone if she entered the primary race, and he has spoken with potential GOP donors who are withholding their money until she decides what she’s doing.

The total the GOP candidates raised from individual donors is not “a massive amount” in part because of the people who are waiting on Wilson, Sanderoff said.

“I think that it’s not too late for Heather Wilson. We’re in October. The June primary is a long way away,” he said. “One of the things that these numbers tell us is that there are still some donors out there who are holding back.”

Regardless, Sanderoff said, the other GOP candidates shouldn’t be waiting on Wilson.

“At some point, if you want to be governor you just need to go for it,” he said. “They need to be out there and demonstrating some strength to try to dissuade her.”