Republican U.S. Senate candidate Steve Pearce is touting a new poll conducted for his campaign that has Democrat Tom Udall leading by only 8.7 points.
But Pearce hasn’t released the polling memo or key details about the poll, including the sample size, margin of error and the wording of the question that was asked of those surveyed. The Pearce campaign hasn’t responded to a request to release that information.
Without that information, it’s impossible to know whether the poll has integrity. That, coupled with the fact that this isn’t an independent poll, means the results have to be approached with a great deal of skepticism. Check out this article for an explanation of why internal polling should be taken with a grain of salt.
The poll, conducted by AJF Associates, had Udall leading 49.5 percent to 40.8 percent, according to a news release from the Pearce campaign. The release said the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday.
Despite questions about the internal Pearce poll, the trend in recent polling does indicate that Pearce is closing the gap. Udall led by 10 points in the newest Rasmussen Reports poll released last week — a survey of 700 likely voters conducted Aug. 20 that has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. In addition, an online survey conducted by Zogby International in June had Pearce trailing by 8 points. That survey of 464 likely voters had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
Less recent polling had Udall leading Pearce by a much greater margin. The previous Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted July 24, had Pearce trailing by 25 points. So did a June 2 SurveyUSA poll.
The July Rasmussen Reports survey of 700 likely voters had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The SurveyUSA poll of 1,869 registered voters had a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.