Heath Haussamen
The GOP guv primary remains wide open, Denish has the advantage in November but isn’t unbeatable, and Pearce/Teague remains one of the hottest House races in the nation. Then there’s the guv. Of course his approval rating has tanked.
Several polls released this week have led to a great deal of debate about where the state’s congressional and gubernatorial races stand.
For the most part, the polling released in the last week makes sense at this early stage in the game. So here are some thoughts on the races, based on the polling and some old-fashioned common sense.
Republican gubernatorial primary
This race is wide open. Pete Domenici Jr. has a current and significant lead in the race but it isn’t because voters know where he stands on the issues or really even because of him – the lead he enjoys is primarily due to the fact that his father, who shares his name, ran the state GOP for some 40 years.
Domenici starts out really high, and he’s going to have a difficult time staying there as voters get to know him and truly understand that he’s not his father.
As for the other four candidates, there’s not currently a significant difference between where each of them stand. In a poll conducted by an NMSU government class with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, The difference between the second-place candidate (Susana Martinez at 11.5 percent) and the last-place candidate (Janice Arnold-Jones at 2.5 percent) isn’t that much.
When Public Policy Polling looked at New Mexico’s gubernatorial race, it found something similar: Domenici trailed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Diane Denish by 5 percentage points, while the other Republican hopefuls all trailed Denish by larger – but similar – margins.
Domenici is currently the guy to beat, but as June approaches, one or two other candidates will emerge from the pack and give Domenici a run for his money. The race remains wide open.
Gubernatorial general election race
It’s also no surprise that a state GOP poll showed 44 percent of likely voters likely to vote for the generic and unnamed Republican gubernatorial candidate, while 40 percent said they were likely to vote for the generic Democratic candidate. Anti-incumbent sentiment is at or near an all-time high, and while for years the anger in New Mexico was spread between Democrats who controlled Santa Fe and Republicans who controlled Washington, right now it’s all focused on Democrats who control everything.
But it’s also no surprise that Denish leads each of the Republican candidates in potential general election matchups, as Publicly Policy Polling found when it inserted names into a poll of the gubernatorial race. Denish is well known in New Mexico and has had eight years to build up and spread a positive image of herself.
The reality is that, regardless of what the state GOP and some Republican gubernatorial candidates want the public to believe, Denish is fairly well liked, as least as much as any politician is liked in the current political climate.
The bottom line is that, while Denish has an advantage in the general election, she’s not unbeatable. Even though this is a state with more Democrats than Republicans, Denish’s lead is due to who she is, not the fact that she’s a Democrat, and the GOP is working hard to take that advantage away from her.
2nd Congressional District race
Two polls released this week showed Republican Steve Pearce leading incumbent Democrat Harry Teague in this race – by two points in one and four points in the other. In both polls, Pearce’s lead was within the margin of error.
This is where most people I’ve spoken with – Democrats and Republicans – thought the race stood before they saw these polls: Pearce has a slight, but not insurmountable, lead. With the climate as bad as it is for Democrats right now – and considering that Teague represents the most conservative congressional district in the state – if anything it’s a surprise that Teague is doing this well.
Teague has shown a willingness to spend his own money on elections in the past, and Pearce has not, though he says he will this year if necessary. Both candidates should also have significant help from the national parties. This race has been, and remains, one of the hottest in the nation.
One interesting question is whether the oil-rich district will be one of the places some massive oil company or other business tests the Supreme Court’s recent decision that corporations can spend unlimited amounts on races. If it is one of those places, such money would probably benefit Pearce. Will that be what makes the difference in this race?
It’s worth noting that Republican Cliff R. Pirtle has filed to run against Pearce in the primary. The poll didn’t consider his candidacy.
1st Congressional District race
There was no surprise in a poll that showed Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich up 9 percentage points over Republican Jon Barela in this race. Barela hasn’t been very visible or raised a ton of money – yet. Expect this race to become more competitive as November approaches, but Heinrich has a significant and comfortable lead at this point.
The poll also notably left out libertarian Alan Woodruff. Would including him have made a difference?
3rd Congressional District race
It was a little surprising to see Democratic incumbent Ben Ray Luján vulnerable in this race. This is a safely Democratic district, but the Public Policy Polling survey showed Luján up only six points over one of two Republicans vying for the right to take him on in November and eight points over the other.
In addition, it showed that he had the approval of 31 percent of those surveyed, while 40 percent said they disapprove and 29 percent said they were not sure.
The reason? Could be a few different things. First, this was an automated phone survey – not necessarily the most reliable type of polling. That could explain the numbers. Or, assuming the numbers are correct, I’ve heard a couple of possible ideas to help explain them:
• Could there be a significant difference in the popularity of Luján and his father, the notorious Speaker of the House Ben Luján? It’s noteworthy that the poll asked about “Congressman Ben Luján,” not Ben Ray Luján, which is the name the congressman actually goes by.
• One of the Republicans fighting for the right to take on Luján in November, Adam Kokesh, has the backing of the Ron Paul army. The energy and passion of that movement has been aimed at tearing down Luján – and while the poll gives no indication that it’s succeeding in building a significant level of support for Kokesh, at least yet, maybe it is succeeding in tearing down Luján.
Time will tell.
The governor
Bill Richardson complained this week about the poll that showed his approval rating at 28 percent, which makes him one of the least popular governors in the nation. But I wasn’t surprised at all.
Richardson came back to New Mexico in 2002 as a celebrity, and he was elected as one. For a long time, polls reflected that, with his approval rating at times being in the 70s.
Then he got himself slaughtered in the Democratic presidential primary and came back to New Mexico appearing almost bored with the prospect of governing the state again – regardless of what he said every time he appeared on national television about the New Mexico governorship being the best job in the world.
Since Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton shipped Richardson back to New Mexico, he’s found himself bogged down in scandal after scandal, had to withdraw his nomination to be commerce secretary, and narrowly avoided being indicted. He has become increasingly afraid of and combative with the media. And that means he’s getting less media attention than before, and more of it is negative.
Is it any wonder, then, that the public’s opinion of him has tanked? Of course not.