{"id":810,"date":"2006-11-05T17:02:00","date_gmt":"2006-11-05T23:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2006\/11\/an-analysis-of-area-house-races\/"},"modified":"2006-11-05T17:02:00","modified_gmt":"2006-11-05T23:02:00","slug":"an-analysis-of-area-house-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2006\/11\/an-analysis-of-area-house-races\/","title":{"rendered":"An analysis of area House races"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s my analysis of the races for the four House seats whose districts are partially or all in Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place>: <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

House District 53<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In this race, Democrat Nate Cote is trying to knock off 12-year incumbent Republican Terry Marquardt, the House minority whip.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That might seem like an unlikely task, but redistricting several years ago shifted this district\u2019s center from Otero<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype> to Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place>. Two of 10 precincts, including Marquardt\u2019s, are in Otero<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype>, but the rest are in the Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> area.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It\u2019s still conservative, and this district may eventually become a stronghold for a Republican from Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>. Absent that, we\u2019ve got a close race between an Alamogordo Republican and a Las Cruces Democrat.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>The latest Democratic Party poll had Marquardt up only one point, and in recent weeks he has finally caught on that he has a serious challenger and begun a stronger push for re-election. The Republican Party has helped out in recent days with a radio ad in which U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici endorses Marquardt.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

On the flip side, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and Gov. Bill Richardson are sending a lot of money Cote<\/st1:place>\u2019s way, much of it in the form of negative attacks against Marquardt.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Marquardt, for the most part, has responded by defending his record and not going negative.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> factor means there\u2019s a chance this one could go to the Democrats, but it\u2019s a close race that\u2019s tough to predict.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

House District 3<\/span>7<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>With the retirement of Republican Rep. Ed Boykin, Democrat Jeff Steinborn and Republican Scott Witt are vying for this seat.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Though a recent Democratic Party poll had Steinborn ahead eight points, most view this as another race that\u2019s hard to predict. Steinborn, who ran unsuccessfully two years ago for congress, has quite a campaign machine behind him, and his get-out-the-vote effort has been impressive. Witt has also worked tirelessly to ask for the votes of people living in this district.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Steinborn\u2019s campaigning skills are so impressive that, were he a moderate consensus-builder, he might have a commanding lead in this race. But that\u2019s not the case. Steinborn is a Democrat\u2019s Democrat, a partisan politician.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Perhaps because of that, Steinborn has tried to paint Witt as a right-wing extremist. Witt has worked to convince voters he isn\u2019t. This race may come down to whether voters see Witt as someone who will consider all views and think independently.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If they don\u2019t, Steinborn will likely win. If they do, this race could keep us up late on election night.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

House District 36<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Republican Isaac Chavez is challenging Democrat Andy Nu\u00f1ez, who has held the position since 2001.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In many ways, this race is much like the House District 53 situation. A well-funded, competent challenger is running an ambitious campaign against a representative who was caught off guard.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A recent Democratic Party poll had Nu\u00f1ez up 17 points, but a Republican poll has the candidates even.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Chavez has a vastly larger number of small contributions from residents of the district, has knocked on more doors and is asking more people for their votes. He\u2019s from Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, where more people tend to vote. Nu\u00f1ez is from Hatch, where few have voted historically or during early voting in this election cycle.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>But Nu\u00f1ez, a retired educator, can rely on teachers to do much of the walking of his district that he hasn\u2019t done himself.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And in many ways, this race isn\u2019t about who talks to more people. It\u2019s a battle between the oil and gas industry and farmers and ranchers.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Nu\u00f1ez has sponsored a bill in the past two sessions \u2013 and said he will sponsor it again in January \u2013 that would make oil and gas operators liable to surface owners for damages sustained as a result of their operations. It also requires operators to reclaim all surface directly affected by their operations, and to provide notice to surface owners of their plans on their property before they begin work.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Oil and gas has made defeating Nu\u00f1ez its primary focus in this election, and has given lots of money to his opponent. Chavez was also boosted by a $20,000 gift from the main financial backer of the 2004 Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, who gave to Chavez probably because of the push by oil and gas.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

On the flip side, farmers, ranchers, and their political action committees have given big to Nu\u00f1ez.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Legislators are watching this race closely. Whichever side wins will have kudos and lobbying power in the next session.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Expect this to be a much closer race than the Democratic Party poll indicates.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

House District 35<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In this race, Republican Lawrence Joy is challenging Democratic incumbent Antonio Lujan.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Even Joy doesn\u2019t think he\u2019ll win this year, and he\u2019s probably right. With the possible exception of Chavez\u2019s heavily funded campaign, this isn\u2019t a year for Republicans to make many gains in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. Gov. Bill Richardson can raise money the likes of which this state has never seen.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Joy says he\u2019s trying to slowly gain ground toward a victory in two years or sometime after that. We\u2019ll see. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s my analysis of the races for the four House seats whose districts are partially or all in Do\u00f1a Ana County: House District 53 In this race, Democrat Nate Cote is trying to knock off 12-year incumbent Republican Terry Marquardt, the House minority whip. That might seem like an unlikely task, but redistricting several years […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=810"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/810\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}