{"id":7923,"date":"2009-10-16T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-16T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=7923"},"modified":"2009-10-18T00:04:49","modified_gmt":"2009-10-18T06:04:49","slug":"denish-looms-large-gop-primary-still-wide-open","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2009\/10\/denish-looms-large-gop-primary-still-wide-open\/","title":{"rendered":"Denish looms large; GOP primary still wide open"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Lt.

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (Photo by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n

And Heather Wilson\u2019s still a factor, according to pollster and analyst Brian Sanderoff<\/h4>\n

Diane Denish<\/a> is still a giant. Heather Wilson\u2019s<\/a> indecision on whether to run for governor has sidelined some money but not enough to sink others\u2019 chances. The four Republicans who have declared for governor are still in the hunt.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the bottom line for New Mexico pollster and analyst Brian Sanderoff after seeing the results of the campaign finance reports filed Tuesday in the governor\u2019s race. It was a first look at which of the GOP candidates can come up with the money to compete. Sanderoff said it\u2019s clear that the primary race is still wide open.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got four candidates with very diverse backgrounds and profiles, and so it\u2019s way too early to start handicapping this race, in my opinion,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

Of the GOP candidates, Allen Weh<\/a> led the way in fundraising from May to October, coming up with about $560,000<\/a>, with $250,000 of that a personal loan. Doug Turner<\/a> came in with just under $342,000<\/a>, with the bulk of it \u2013 about $243,500 \u2013 personal loans.<\/p>\n

Susana Martinez<\/a> raised almost $144,000<\/a>, while Janice Arnold-Jones<\/a> raised just over $23,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Diane Denish<\/a>, the likely Democratic nominee for governor, looms large above them all. If you don\u2019t count in-kind contributions, she raised more than all the GOP candidates combined — $931,300.11<\/a> to their $912,955.57. She ended the reporting period with about $2.2 million on hand, while the GOP candidates had a combined total of about $722,000.<\/p>\n

Sanderoff said that isn\u2019t surprising. Some people contribute to campaigns because they share a candidate\u2019s beliefs, but some do it for more pragmatic reasons.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s easier to raise money when you\u2019re perceived as having a good shot at being the next governor,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Denish currently has no primary opponent, so potential donors are \u201cgetting on board earlier\u201d than they are on the GOP side, Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

Denish Campaign Manager Oren Shur said Denish is in such a strong position because \u201cmost New Mexicans want to make progress\u201d and \u201crecognize that Lt. Gov. Denish has a record they can count on.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cNo matter which way you look at it, New Mexicans are excited about only one candidate for governor right now and it\u2019s Diane Denish,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat Lt. Gov. Denish knows, and our opponents haven\u2019t figured out, is that you build grassroots support by putting forward good ideas for the future \u2013 not by shouting negative attacks every chance you get.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fighting between Martinez, Dems<\/h3>\n
\"Susana

Susana Martinez<\/p><\/div>\n

Martinez has led the attacks against Denish, and has authored two hard-hitting commentaries<\/a>. Weh has also joined the fray<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The state Democratic Party fired back at Martinez on Wednesday in a news release<\/a>, pointing out that all but nine of Martinez\u2019s financial contributions came from the 2nd Congressional District. The party\u2019s executive director, Josh Geise, said Martinez \u201chas yet to show a grasp of statewide issues or anything that remotely resembles a statewide base of support,\u201d adding that it\u2019s \u201csimply hard to take her seriously as a statewide candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Denish had twice as many donors as Martinez in the 2nd District, according to the release, and 2,835 in the rest of the state to Martinez\u2019s nine.<\/p>\n

The news release probably came in part because Martinez has been hammering Denish, Sanderoff said, but he suspects the Democrats are also \u201ca little nervous, perhaps,\u201d about taking on \u201canother woman, a Hispanic who would cater to crossover voters\u201d in a general-election contest.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf she was so regional, why do they see the need to attack her in a news release?\u201d Sanderoff asked. He added that most of the state doesn\u2019t know much about Martinez, \u201cbut that doesn\u2019t mean she couldn\u2019t be a very formidable candidate in a general election, because the Republican Party will come together for the general no matter which candidate wins the primary.\u201d<\/p>\n

One noteworthy fact about Martinez\u2019s fundraising is that she has been touting support in the Farmington area<\/a> and on the east side of the state. While campaign contributions back up her claim of east-side support, she didn\u2019t have a single contribution from the Farmington area.<\/p>\n

Spokesman Danny Diaz said Martinez has upcoming events in the Farmington area. He said the political support she has there will \u201cmanifest itself in financial support in the near future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Diaz said Democrats are right to take seriously the candidacy of Do\u00f1a Ana County\u2019s district attorney because she has won races in an \u201coverwhelmingly Democratic county where Republicans are outnumbered 3-1\u201d and \u201chas a track record of addressing the critical issues confronting the state.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Diaz pointed out that Martinez raised funds from individual donors at roughly the same rate as Weh if you consider that she hasn\u2019t been in the race as long as the former state GOP chairman.<\/p>\n

Self-financing \u2018sure doesn\u2019t hurt\u2019<\/h3>\n
\"Allen

Allen Weh<\/p><\/div>\n

Sanderoff also noted the money Weh and Turner have put into their own campaigns \u2013 something Martinez and Arnold-Jones don\u2019t have the ability to do.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhether this is seed money or whether this is a sign of what\u2019s to come in the future with these two candidates remains unknown, but two of these candidates have personal wealth and are using some of that money,\u201d he said. \u201cPersonal wealth does not by any means guarantee a victory, but it sure doesn\u2019t hurt.\u201d<\/p>\n

Weh also had more individual contributions than any other candidate. While Martinez came in second with about 230, Weh had about 600. Weh was the first GOP candidate in the race, and spokesman Christopher Sanchez said that\u2019s paying off.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re running early and we\u2019re running hard and it\u2019s starting to show,\u201d he said. \u201cRaising money early and getting organized has given us the ability to be a very viable campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sanchez said he wouldn\u2019t call Weh the frontrunner, but winning the general election is \u201cgoing to take someone who has the experience in fundraising and campaigning to beat Denish.\u201d At this point, he said, Weh \u201chas the funds in place to execute his campaign plan.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAllen Weh\u2019s message is really resonating. And we feel really good about the support we\u2019re receiving,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\"Doug

Doug Turner<\/p><\/div>\n

Turner agreed with Sanderoff that the race is wide open. He hasn\u2019t yet focused on fundraising, instead using his own money to get started. Turner has confirmed he\u2019s running for governor but not yet made a formal announcement. He expects to raise money \u201cin earnest\u201d after he formally enters the race.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Turner has been traveling the state. He said the response to his candidacy has been \u201cextremely positive.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a very strong desire for a young freshness in this race, someone with new ideas, someone with energy and someone without significant political baggage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Arnold-Jones is \u2018not discouraged\u2019<\/h3>\n
\"Janice

Janice Arnold-Jones<\/p><\/div>\n

Arnold-Jones doesn\u2019t have nearly as much cash as the other candidates.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you start as the underdog, I\u2019m not sure you can allow yourself to worry about it as much. The lieutenant governor has a lot of money. It doesn\u2019t make her the person that is best to lead the state,\u201d Arnold-Jones said. \u201cMoney alone should not be the only qualifier for leading this state. If that was the only qualifier, my goodness, some good people would have been cut out.\u201d<\/p>\n

She noted that a preprimary convention will come before the primary and some 400 Republicans will decide who gets to appear on the ballot. Money may not be as critical in that contest, she said, and she\u2019s confident about getting the support she needs to appear on the ballot.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut do I think after the preprimary it will take half a million dollars? Yes I do. I have a long ways to go,\u201d Arnold-Jones said. \u201cI\u2019m not discouraged and my team\u2019s not discouraged. We thought this is where we would be.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Wilson factor<\/h3>\n
\"Heather

Heather Wilson<\/p><\/div>\n

Sanderoff noted the elephant in the room: Wilson, the former Republican congresswoman from Albuquerque, says she\u2019s still thinking about running for governor<\/a>. Sanderoff said she would be the \u201cperceived frontrunner\u201d on name recognition alone if she entered the primary race, and he has spoken with potential GOP donors who are withholding their money until she decides what she\u2019s doing.<\/p>\n

The total the GOP candidates raised from individual donors is not \u201ca massive amount\u201d in part because of the people who are waiting on Wilson, Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think that it\u2019s not too late for Heather Wilson. We\u2019re in October. The June primary is a long way away,\u201d he said. \u201cOne of the things that these numbers tell us is that there are still some donors out there who are holding back.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regardless, Sanderoff said, the other GOP candidates shouldn\u2019t be waiting on Wilson.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt some point, if you want to be governor you just need to go for it,\u201d he said. \u201cThey need to be out there and demonstrating some strength to try to dissuade her.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After Tuesday\u2019s finance reports, Diane Denish is still a giant. Heather Wilson\u2019s indecision on whether to run for governor has sidelined some money but not enough to sink others\u2019 chances. The four Republicans who have declared for governor are still in the hunt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,107],"class_list":["post-7923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-roundhouse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}