{"id":788,"date":"2006-10-31T08:33:00","date_gmt":"2006-10-31T14:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2006\/10\/dems-new-poll-shows-marquardt-up-one-point-other-house-dem-hopefuls-with-strong-leads\/"},"modified":"2006-10-31T08:33:00","modified_gmt":"2006-10-31T14:33:00","slug":"dems-new-poll-shows-marquardt-up-one-point-other-house-dem-hopefuls-with-strong-leads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2006\/10\/dems-new-poll-shows-marquardt-up-one-point-other-house-dem-hopefuls-with-strong-leads\/","title":{"rendered":"Dems’ new poll shows Marquardt up one point, other House Dem hopefuls with strong leads"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Rep. Terry Marquardt should be worried about losing his House seat, if the Democratic Party\u2019s poll numbers are to be believed. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Republican from Alamogordo<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is up only one point on Democratic challenger Nate Cote in the newest poll. The last Democratic Party poll had Marquardt up four percentage points.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The new poll has Marquardt with 43 percent of the vote to Cote<\/st1:place>\u2019s 42 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Many Republicans I spoke with weren\u2019t surprised. Redistricting several years ago put 8 of 10 precincts in House District 53 in Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename>, and Republicans suspected the district would eventually be taken by someone from Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Cote<\/st1:place> hasn\u2019t won yet, but his chances are growing.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There\u2019s another reason Cote<\/st1:place> may be doing so well. My wife and I live in District 53. We\u2019re both registered independents. We\u2019re getting Cote<\/st1:place>\u2019s mailers \u2013 four so far \u2013 but none from Marquardt, though he has sent at least five to Democrats in the district.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Does he not realize that 20 percent of voters in Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> are registered independents? Is he really not going to ask for independents\u2019 votes?<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

On to other House races:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the District 36 race, the Democrats\u2019 poll has Rep. Andy Nu\u00f1ez, D-Hatch, with a sizable lead, 51-34 percent, over Republican challenger Isaac Chavez. This is quite a surprise \u2013 Republicans are as optimistic about knocking Nu\u00f1ez out of the House as Democrats are about beating Marquardt. Chavez has raised and spent more money in recent weeks and is knocking on more doors than Nu\u00f1ez.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Many Democrats I spoke with doubt these results.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the District 37 race, Democrat Jeff Steinborn is ahead of Republican Scott Witt 45-37 percent in the Democrats\u2019 poll. Some Democrats I spoke with doubted these results, too, and expect a closer race. But the Republicans I spoke with weren\u2019t surprised.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Democrats didn\u2019t poll the District 35 race between Democratic incumbent Antonio Lujan and Republican challenger Lawrence Joy. They don\u2019t consider Joy a threat.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Though I was able to get my hands on these poll numbers from a source I trust, I have not seen the actual documents and did not get information on who conducted the polls, how many people were surveyed, or an exact margin of error. Take that for what it\u2019s worth.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Internal party polls are interesting, but I wouldn\u2019t bet the bank on them.<\/p>\n

\n

Update, 10:15 a.m.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve confirmed these numbers with additional sources, and also learned that the District 53 poll surveyed 300 people.<\/p>\n

\n

Update, 11\/01 at noon<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Lawrence Joy, Republican candidate for House District 35 who also runs a marketing company, is doing Marquardt\u2019s mailers. He said Marquardt\u2019s mailing list includes 7,500 people \u2013 1,100 of them independents \u2013 and said the names of me and my wife aren\u2019t on the list because we changed our address with the clerk\u2019s office after Aug. 1. Joy said the Aug. 1 voter list is the last complete list that has been provided to the Republican Party by the clerk\u2019s office.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rep. Terry Marquardt should be worried about losing his House seat, if the Democratic Party\u2019s poll numbers are to be believed. The Republican from Alamogordo is up only one point on Democratic challenger Nate Cote in the newest poll. The last Democratic Party poll had Marquardt up four percentage points. The new poll has Marquardt […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/788\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}