{"id":649749,"date":"2018-11-26T14:00:29","date_gmt":"2018-11-26T21:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=649749"},"modified":"2018-11-27T08:06:33","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T15:06:33","slug":"federal-report-details-how-climate-change-will-impact-u-s-economy-infrastructure-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/11\/federal-report-details-how-climate-change-will-impact-u-s-economy-infrastructure-and-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal report details how climate change will impact U.S. economy, infrastructure and more"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_649760\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-649760\" src=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m-771x492.jpg\" alt=\"Jemez Mountains\" width=\"771\" height=\"492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m-771x492.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m-336x214.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m-768x490.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m-1170x747.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/IMG_2133-2m.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">A former conifer forest in the Jemez Mountains, with the Rio Grande&#8217;s Cochiti Resevoir in the background.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Climate change is here. It\u2019s human-caused. And it\u2019s going to deliver a blow to American prosperity.<\/p>\n<p>Already hard-hit by drought, wildfires and declining water supplies, the southwestern United States will continue to face those challenges \u2014 and new ones.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the message from a federal\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nca2018.globalchange.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a>\u00a0released over the holiday weekend about climate change and its impact on the U.S. economy and infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p>Compiled by 13 federal agencies and more than 300 contributing authors, the peer-reviewed report reiterates much of what scientists have been explaining for decades. But it also clearly delineates the links between warming and extreme weather events \u2014 and warns of the increasingly expensive economic consequences that come from not addressing climate change.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article comes from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/2018\/11\/26\/black-fridays-climate-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New Mexico Political Report<\/a>,\u00a0a nonprofit news organization\u00a0focused on promoting a greater public understanding of politics and policy in New Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>The assessment is part of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalchange.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">United States Global Change Program<\/a>, which has completed reports regularly since directed to do so by Congress and then-President George H.W. Bush almost 30 years ago.<\/p>\n<p>According to the assessment, rural and urban economies alike will suffer. Fisheries will decline, farming and ranching challenges will intensify and rising sea levels will push cities and neighborhoods back from the coasts. American infrastructure, from highways and rail lines to sea walls and electric grids, will also be affected by impacts from climate change. Even trade, including import and export prices, will be disrupted.<\/p>\n<p>These economic impacts are projected to cost in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually.<\/p>\n<p>As the report\u2019s authors explain, \u201cthe assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In other words, everything from where humans build their homes and highways to how we plant crops, manage forests and assess property values must be considered through the lens of projected climate risk \u2014 rather than assuming that systems, both climatic and human, will work as they have in the past.<\/p>\n<p>The report also highlights local or regional efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changes such as rising sea levels and heat waves and offers resources and roadmaps for individuals, communities and governments to increase these efforts. (<a href=\"https:\/\/nca2018.globalchange.gov\/chapter\/28\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chapter 28<\/a>\u00a0addresses adaptation and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nca2018.globalchange.gov\/chapter\/29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chapter 29<\/a>, mitigation.)<\/p>\n<p>Adaptation, they write, means managing both short and long-term risks. That\u2019s in large part because even if humans immediately ceased greenhouse gas emissions, the climate impacts due to past emissions will continue through mid-century. \u201cThus, climate risk management requires adaptation for the next several decades, independent of the extent of [greenhouse gas] emission reductions,\u201d they write. \u201cAfter 2050, the magnitude of changes, and thus the demands on adaptation, begins to depend strongly on the scale of [greenhouse gas] emissions reduction today and over the coming decades.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has attempted to manipulate public opinion by dismissing climate change as a \u201choax.\u201d Two days before the federal report was released, Trump Tweeted, \u201cBrutal and Extended Cold Blast could shatter ALL RECORDS \u2013 Whatever happened to Global Warming?\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Future generations will experience life differently<\/h3>\n<p>During a press call on Friday, David Easterling, director of the technical support unit of NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Information, offered what can only be described as a sobering overview of findings in the 1,000-page report.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cObservations of global average temperature provide clear and compelling evidence that global average temperature is much higher, and is rising more rapidly, than anything modern civilization has experienced,\u201d he said. \u201cThis warming trend can only be explained by human activities, and especially by emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sea levels continue to rise, and extreme events \u2014 such as heavy precipitation \u2014 have increased, he said, and will continue to increase into the future.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>These changes threaten the American economy, its infrastructure, the environment and public health, he said \u2014 particularly in the absence of increased adaptation efforts.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cClimate change also threatens the many benefits the natural environment provides to society, such as safe and reliable water supplies, clean air, protection from flooding and erosion and the use of natural resources for economic, recreational and subsistence activities,\u201d Easterling said, adding that \u201cfuture generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems in ways that are very different than today.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Risks are highest for those who are already vulnerable, he said, including low-income communities, some communities of color, children and the elderly.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFuture climate change is expected to further disrupt many areas of life, exacerbating existing challenges and revealing new risks to health \u2014 including mental health \u2014 and prosperity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Easterling assured reporters that many impacts and damages could be \u201csubstantially reduced\u201d through global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, complemented by local and regional adaptation efforts. Those efforts are underway, he said, but they don\u2019t yet approach the scale necessary to \u201cprevent damages to the economy, the environment and human health [that are] expected over the coming decades.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>To New Mexicans, some of the information in the Fourth National Climate Assessment will seem familiar.<\/p>\n<p>The combination of warming and recent drought has affected water supplies in the Southwest this year, with streams and reservoirs at historically low levels across New Mexico.<\/p>\n<p>According to U.S. Geological Survey data for October \u2014 the beginning of the 2019 Water Year \u2014 daily streamflow conditions were at or above average in only three of 21 river basins in New Mexico. In the Rio Grande Basin upstream of Albuquerque, streamflows ranged from 19 to 70 percent of average, according to data shared during the Nov. 20 Drought Monitoring Working Group meeting.<\/p>\n<p>The state\u2019s northern mountains have received some snow this fall, and farmers and skiers alike hope for a robust winter. But much of the state remains in drought\u2019s grip, and forecasters estimate that December will be warmer than normal.<\/p>\n<h3>Deep hits to the Southwest<\/h3>\n<p>The Fourth National Climate Assessment is broken down into national-level topics \u2014 such as water, forests, transportation and tribes and indigenous peoples \u2014 and regional chapters.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe big message for me is the interconnectedness between all these systems,\u201d including water, food, energy, ecosystems and human health, said Gregg Garfin during an interview with\u00a0<i>NM Political Report<\/i>. \u201cAnd if we try to look at those in isolation, we\u2019re probably setting ourselves up for more problems,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Garfin is lead author of the chapter on the Southwest, and a professor in climate, natural resources and policy in the University of Arizona\u2019s School of Natural Resources and the Environment.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the key points from the<a href=\"https:\/\/nca2018.globalchange.gov\/chapter\/25\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0chapter on the southwestern United States<\/a>, which covers New Mexico, Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado and Utah, include:<\/p>\n<p><b>Temperatures have increased from 1901 to 2016.<\/b>\u00a0Higher temperatures \u201camplify\u201d recent droughts, and contribute to \u201csnow drought\u201d when precipitation either doesn\u2019t fall or falls as rain instead of snow. Continued warming will contribute to \u201caridification\u201d \u2014 a potentially permanent change to an even drier environment than exists today. Depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases humans continue to emit, models forecast a number of different scenarios. Under the higher emissions scenario, for example, the mountains in California currently dominated by snow could receive only rain by 2050.<\/p>\n<p><b>Human-caused climate change is contributing to water scarcity in the Southwest.\u00a0<\/b>Along with drought, demands from a growing population, deteriorating infrastructure and dropping groundwater levels, climate change is putting more stress on the Southwest\u2019s already strapped water supplies.<\/p>\n<p><b>The Southwest\u2019s forests and other ecosystems are having a harder time providing wildlife habitat, clean water and jobs due to drought, wildfire and climate change.\u00a0<\/b>The cumulative area burned by wildfire increased between 1984 and 2015; that burned footprint is twice what it would have been without rising temperatures, which have contributed to other factors including past forest management practices. With continued greenhouse gas emissions, the Southwest will experience even more wildfires, which contribute to flooding and erosion. In addition, warming is shifting where certain plant and animal species can live.<\/p>\n<p><b>The sea has already risen, and warmed.<\/b>\u00a0Between 1895 and 2016, the sea level rose nine inches at the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco. Depending on emissions, by 2100 that change could range from 19 to 41 inches, and currently 200,000 Californians live within areas expected to be inundated. Warming in the Pacific Ocean also disrupts ecosystems and sickens or kills wildlife and harms commercial fisheries.<\/p>\n<p><b>Southwestern tribes are at increased risk from drought, wildfire and changing ocean conditions.\u00a0<\/b>Because the U.S. government restricted some tribal nations in the region to the \u201cdriest portions of their traditional homelands,\u201d the well-being of southwestern tribes is at increased risk from water scarcity, the loss of traditional foods, wildfire and changes in the ranges of plants and animals. Adaptation and mitigation measures are underway in many communities, but the authors note that \u201chistorical intergenerational trauma, extractive infrastructure, and socioeconomic and political pressures reduce their adaptive capacity to current and future climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>Climate change affects energy demand and supply.<\/b>\u00a0As warming increases, demands for electricity rise \u2014 but demands for more water for fossil fuel plants will coincide with reduced water supply availability from snowpack. Moreover, hydraulic fracturing uses large amounts of water, pollutes water and emits greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n<p><b>Climate change will increase future food insecurity.<\/b>\u00a0Southwestern farmers already worry about water shortages and grapple with increased drought and heat waves. As surface water supplies become increasingly vulnerable, many areas have already depleted their groundwater supplies. Agricultural zones have already shifted, and will continue to affect where certain crops and fruit and nut trees can thrive. Together, these changes will cause geographic shifts in crop production, \u201cpotentially displacing existing growers and affecting rural communities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>Southwesterners will suffer more health risks.<\/b>\u00a0The region will continue heating up, with more hot days and extreme heat events each year. People will also face more exposure to infectious diseases like the plague and hantavirus, experience more allergy problems and be exposed to more severe dust storms.<\/p>\n<p>The authors also note that climate change affects mental health: \u201cOne impact of rising temperatures, especially in combination with environmental and socioeconomic stresses, is violence towards others and the self,\u201d the authors write. \u201cSlow-moving disasters, such as drought, may affect mental health over many years. Studies of chronic stress indicate a potentially diminished ability to cope with subsequent exposures to stress.\u201d In the Southwest in particular, they write, the \u201closs of stability and certainty in natural systems may affect physical, mental and spiritual health of Indigenous peoples with close ties to the land.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Taken in total, the assessment for the southwestern United States offers very little good news.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI certainly get overwhelmed by the information and the impacts \u2014 just in the last couple of weeks, taking in the news from these fires in California, that\u2019s very overwhelming, it\u2019s heart-rending. People die, and this is super important,\u201d Garfin said.<\/p>\n<p>But whether it\u2019s on a neighborhood- or state-wide scale, people can plan and take action, he said: \u201cWe can bite off pieces of the problem, and break it down into steps, and then when we complete a step, we feel empowered to do more.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Alluding to the recent\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/2018\/10\/10\/international-climate-report-warns-of-drastic-irreversible-changes-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report<\/a>\u00a0about the need to quickly transition the world\u2019s energy systems away from fossil fuels in order to keep the worst of the impacts at bay, Garfin noted the assessment report\u2019s authors documented actions that states, cities, nonprofit organizations and the private sector are already taking to cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve only maybe started wading in to our shins. We\u2019re not out there swimming,\u201d he said. \u201cBut there\u2019s been a fair amount of action, and I think that\u2019s heartening because success breeds more success and action breeds more action.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Friday\u2019s report is a companion to a volume\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/2017\/11\/06\/rapidly-warming-southwest-faces-water-challenges-choices-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published last year<\/a>\u00a0about the physical climate science.<\/p>\n<p>The assessment is available online in<a href=\"https:\/\/nca2018.globalchange.gov\/\">\u00a0English<\/a>\u00a0and<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalchange.gov\/browse\/reports\/informe-resumido-volumen-ii-de-la-cuarta-evaluaci%C3%B3n-nacional-del-clima-impactos\">\u00a0Spanish<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Already hard-hit by drought, wildfires and declining water supplies, the southwestern United States will continue to face those challenges \u2014 and new ones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":649760,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[284,147],"class_list":["post-649749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-climate-change","tag-environment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=649749"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":649764,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649749\/revisions\/649764"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/649760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=649749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=649749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=649749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}