{"id":647936,"date":"2018-11-23T12:00:59","date_gmt":"2018-11-23T19:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=647936"},"modified":"2018-11-25T09:00:09","modified_gmt":"2018-11-25T16:00:09","slug":"orourke-lost-why-not-arizonas-sinema-for-president-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/11\/orourke-lost-why-not-arizonas-sinema-for-president-in-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"O\u2019Rourke lost. Why not Arizona\u2019s Sinema for president in 2020?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Kyrsten

Gage Skidmore<\/p>

U.S. Sen-elect Kyrsten Sinema speaking at a campaign event in Phoenix in October.<\/p><\/div>\n

COMMENTARY:\u00a0<\/strong>I don\u2019t understand why some Democrats think Beto O\u2019Rourke is the person to take on Donald Trump in 2020.<\/p>\n

But there are a couple of other border-state Democrats whose impressive victories earlier this month should help Democrats figure out how to win back the presidency.<\/p>\n

Immigration is one of the defining issues of our times. Given their proximity to the border, the Texas and Arizona Senate seats and southern New Mexico\u2019s House seat, which were swing districts in this month\u2019s election, should serve as a lesson for Democrats.<\/p>\n

First, what didn\u2019t work: O\u2019Rourke\u2019s attempt to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a campaign built on star power, Obama-esque appeal, and unabashedly left-leaning politics like impeaching Trump and supporting a \u201cMedicare for all\u201d plan.<\/p>\n

\"Heath

Heath Haussamen<\/p><\/div>\n

O\u2019Rourke certainly fired up the Democratic base in Texas and across the United States. He gave Cruz a scare on his journey to national stardom, coming within a few points of being the first Democrat to win a statewide office in Texas since 1994.<\/p>\n

And he lost.<\/p>\n

Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Xochitl Torres Small, on the other hand, ran as moderates. They fired up progressive bases anyway while earning the support of swing voters \u2013 and they won. In Arizona, Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally in the open race to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake. Torres Small defeated Republican Yvette Herrell<\/a> in the open New Mexico race to replace Steve Pearce in the U.S. House.<\/p>\n

The two Democratic women beat unabashed Trump supporters in Trump-supporting districts.<\/p>\n

In New Mexico, the congressional district was swinging Trump\u2019s way as Election Day approached. While a mid-September New York Times poll put Trump\u2019s approval and disapproval in the district at 47 percent<\/a> each, a second Times poll conducted five weeks later, after the Brett Kavanaugh battle, put Trump\u2019s approval at 51 percent<\/a> compared to 45 percent disapproval.<\/p>\n

In Arizona, a Times poll in mid-October found that more likely voters, 48 percent, approved of the job Trump was doing<\/a> than the 46 percent who disapproved.<\/p>\n

And yet, 12 percent of Republicans<\/a> in Arizona voted for the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Rourke\u2019s support across the political aisle was weaker. It appears he won the backing of about 400,000 people<\/a> who also voted for Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican. That\u2019s fewer than 5 percent of the votes in Texas.<\/p>\n

Torres Small won big in progressive Do\u00f1a Ana County, but that alone didn\u2019t propel her to victory. She won 28 percent of the vote in conservative Lea County. That\u2019s almost 12 points better than Democrat Merrie Lee Soules did against Pearce there in 2016. Torres Small also did roughly 12 points better than Soules in conservative Chaves, Eddy and Otero counties.<\/p>\n

Torres Small angered some Las Cruces-area progressives with rhetoric that prioritized border security \u2013 in her words<\/a>, keeping out \u201ctraffickers and violent criminals\u201d \u2013 over protecting immigrants. And unlike O\u2019Rourke, she refused to back Medicare for all. Progressives showed up to vote for her anyway, in historic numbers<\/a>. The motivation to fight Trump is powerful.<\/p>\n

Maybe O\u2019Rourke fans are betting he can turn out enough left-leaning voters in swing states that Trump supporters won\u2019t matter. But that didn\u2019t work in Texas. And the evidence from these border states suggests it won\u2019t work in 2020. Democrats need to win back some conservative voters.<\/p>\n

Torres Small and Sinema didn\u2019t build the same superstar image that O\u2019Rourke crafted. But they got the job done. Perhaps Democrats should be encouraging Sinema, who\u2019s served three terms in the U.S. House, to run for president instead of O\u2019Rourke.<\/p>\n

Heath Haussamen<\/a>\u00a0is NMPolitics.net\u2019s editor and publisher.\u00a0Agree with his opinion? Disagree? NMPolitics.net welcomes your views. Learn about submitting your own commentary\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Beto O’Rourke built a superstar image — but lost. Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Xochitl Torres Small, on the other hand, ran as moderates \u2013 and won. Their victories provide a lesson for Democrats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":647940,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1192,10],"tags":[2238,3301,219,3652,3679,3307,3717,116,3658],"class_list":["post-647936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-haussamen-columns","tag-2018-election","tag-2020-election","tag-2nd-congressional-district","tag-beto-orourke","tag-borderlands","tag-donald-trump","tag-kyrsten-sinema","tag-washington","tag-xochitl-torres-small"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=647936"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":649146,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/647936\/revisions\/649146"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/647940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=647936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=647936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=647936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}