{"id":644075,"date":"2018-11-09T12:00:49","date_gmt":"2018-11-09T19:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=644075"},"modified":"2018-11-27T07:12:43","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T14:12:43","slug":"a-journalists-view-of-the-groundswell-that-lifted-torres-small-to-victory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/11\/a-journalists-view-of-the-groundswell-that-lifted-torres-small-to-victory\/","title":{"rendered":"A journalist\u2019s view of the groundswell that lifted Torres Small to victory"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Women's

Heath Haussamen \/ NMPolitics.net<\/p>

A scene from the Women’s March in downtown Las Cruces on Jan. 21, 2017.<\/p><\/div>\n

COMMENTARY:\u00a0<\/strong>When I wrote in January<\/a> that the coming blue wave probably wouldn\u2019t be strong enough for Democrats to win outgoing U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce\u2019s House seat, I didn\u2019t yet fully understand what was happening.<\/p>\n

Like many journalists, I missed the energy in rural America that powered Donald Trump\u2019s 2016 victory. I resolved after Trump won to work to better understand how systems are impacting people \u2013 and how people are responding.<\/p>\n

Since then, I\u2019ve been watching the growing groundswell of left-leaning energy in and around Las Cruces.<\/p>\n

I first saw it on Jan. 21, 2017. Organizers expected a few dozen people to attend the Women\u2019s March. Instead, 1,500 people<\/a> marched around downtown and held a spontaneous rally on the plaza.<\/p>\n

\"Heath

Heath Haussamen<\/p><\/div>\n

Progressives had dominated local politics for a decade<\/a>. This movement was different. It had a greater focus on people of color, women and young people. It included liberal and conservative Democrats, and independents.<\/p>\n

In this burgeoning border and college city, it was about protecting immigrants and Muslims, defending women\u2019s rights and the environment, and more.<\/p>\n

The reasons people supported Trump were complicated. This movement was too.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the sort of movement journalists and other analysts can miss if they\u2019re studying polls, campaign finance reports and voter registration data but not witnessing what\u2019s happening on the ground.<\/p>\n

So when two polls in September produced different results<\/a> in the congressional race between Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, I dug into the methodology. The Albuquerque Journal poll, which had Herrell leading by 7 points, assumed not many new people would join the usual voters.<\/p>\n

The New York Times polling sample, on the other hand, accounted for new voters. It had the race statistically tied.<\/p>\n

The expansive congressional district has long been a GOP stronghold \u2013 but one Democrats could win if Las Crucens voted. Turnout in local Las Cruces elections had increased<\/a> since Trump won. People were even more excited about sending a Democrat to Washington to combat the Trump agenda. I knew The Times poll was closer to reality.<\/p>\n

So in October I wrote that my previous analysis was wrong. I declared the congressional race a toss-up<\/a>. Then I waited for Election Day.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s when I saw it happening.<\/p>\n

There were lines<\/a> at every polling place I visited. Some lasted all day. After the polls closed, people were still waiting to vote all over the county. And the clerk had received a flood of absentee ballots.<\/p>\n

That delayed the reporting of results from Do\u00f1a Ana County. I knew early results showing Herrell ahead by several thousand votes didn\u2019t account for the energy I\u2019d seen here.<\/p>\n

I told myself to wait. I didn\u2019t want to erroneously declare the race over.<\/p>\n

Torres Small gained ground as the night progressed, but slowly. There were thousands of outstanding votes in Do\u00f1a Ana County, but I didn\u2019t know how many.<\/p>\n

Then several news outlets declared Herrell the winner. Herrell joined them. I was asked during a radio interview why I wasn\u2019t doing the same. I said some of those analysts were better at math than me, but I didn\u2019t see what they saw.<\/p>\n

I published an article stating that the race wasn\u2019t over<\/a>. It shocked many people.<\/p>\n

They shouldn\u2019t have been shocked.<\/p>\n

The energy I\u2019d seen in Las Cruces since early 2017 won Torres Small an eye-popping 78 percent of the 8,258 absentee ballots that were added to the tally Wednesday evening. Just like that, Torres Small won<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Congratulations, congresswoman-elect<\/a>. I understand that voters are sending you to Washington to watchdog the president. I\u2019ll be watchdogging you.<\/p>\n

Heath Haussamen<\/a>\u00a0is NMPolitics.net\u2019s editor and publisher.\u00a0Agree with his opinion? Disagree? NMPolitics.net welcomes your views. Learn about submitting your own commentary\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many were shocked when I published an article early Wednesday declaring that the race to replace Steve Pearce in the U.S. House wasn’t over. They shouldn\u2019t have been shocked.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":275942,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1192,10],"tags":[2238,219,115,145,3658],"class_list":["post-644075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-haussamen-columns","tag-2018-election","tag-2nd-congressional-district","tag-dona-ana-county","tag-las-cruces","tag-xochitl-torres-small"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=644075"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":650129,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644075\/revisions\/650129"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/275942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=644075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=644075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=644075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}