{"id":628719,"date":"2018-09-24T07:00:01","date_gmt":"2018-09-24T13:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=628719"},"modified":"2018-09-25T07:10:36","modified_gmt":"2018-09-25T13:10:36","slug":"nms-reservoirs-weathered-this-year-but-what-will-happen-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/09\/nms-reservoirs-weathered-this-year-but-what-will-happen-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"NM&#8217;s reservoirs weathered this year. But what will happen next year?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_628724\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-628724\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615-771x465.jpg\" alt=\"Elephant Butte Reservoir\" width=\"771\" height=\"465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615-771x465.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615-336x202.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615-768x463.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615-1170x705.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2615.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Elephant Butte Reservoir on Sept. 10, when it was at 3.7 percent capacity.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Right now, New Mexico\u2019s largest reservoir is at about three percent capacity, with just 62,573 acre feet of water in storage as of<a href=\"https:\/\/waterdatafortexas.org\/reservoirs\/individual\/elephant-butte\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0September 20<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Elephant Butte Reservoir\u2019s low levels offer a glimpse of the past, as well as insight into the future. Over\u00a0the past few decades, southwestern states like New Mexico have on average experienced warmer temperatures, earlier springs and less snowpack in the mountains. And it\u2019s a trend that\u2019s predicted to continue.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was no spring runoff this year. We started this year at basically the point we left off at last year,\u201d says Mary Carlson, a spokesperson for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which operates Elephant Butte Dam, just north of the town of Truth or Consequences. The federal agency runs the Rio Grande Project, which stores water that legally must be delivered downstream to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District, the state of Texas and Mexico.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article comes from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/879547\/nms-reservoirs-weathered-this-year-but-what-will-happen-next-year-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New Mexico Political Report<\/a>,\u00a0a nonprofit news organization\u00a0focused on promoting a greater public understanding of politics and policy in New Mexico. It&#8217;s the first in a three-part series about the Rio Grande, its reservoirs and the U.S. Supreme Court battle over its waters.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Drought has moved around the U.S. Southwest since the late 1990s, and last winter\u2019s dismal snowpack broke records in the headwaters of the Rio Grande. Without runoff this spring, by February reservoir levels around the state \u2014 including at Elephant Butte \u2014 were as high as they were going to be this year. \u201cWe had some help from the monsoons,\u201d Carlson says, \u201cbut not as much as we wanted, where we wanted.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Many spots around New Mexico reveal signs of drought and climate change, whether it\u2019s the puny flows of the Rio Grande, the fire-ravaged forests of the Jemez Mountains or the crispy rangelands of the northeast. But Elephant Butte Reservoir offers perhaps the starkest reminder that keeping up with the changing climate may require questioning long-held ideas of how water is managed and shared, how we think about rivers and reservoirs, and even who we consider our friends or foes.<\/p>\n<h3>Farmers \u2018dealing with La Nada\u2019<\/h3>\n<p>For farmers in Southern New Mexico, this year \u201creally stung,\u201d says Gary Esslinger, manager of Elephant Butte Irrigation District, or EBID. This year, he explains, less than 45,000 acre-feet of water flowed via the Rio Grande into Elephant Butte. That\u2019s the lowest recorded inflow since the dam was built in the early 20th Century.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was virtually no snowpack runoff, and whatever there was didn\u2019t get to Elephant Butte,\u201d he says. \u201cThe Middle Rio Grande, that river was drying up way too early.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Beginning in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/834338\/a-dry-rio-grande-in-springtime-isnt-normal-but-it-will-be-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early April<\/a>, when the state\u2019s largest river is usually running high with snowmelt, it began to dry south of Socorro and upstream of the reservoir.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_628725\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-628725\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310-771x483.jpg\" alt=\"Middle Rio Grande\" width=\"771\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310-771x483.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310-336x211.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310-768x481.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310-1170x733.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2310.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Middle Rio Grande at San Antonio on Sept. 10.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>EBID has over 90,000 acres of irrigable land, and about 8,000 members, about half of whom own two acres of land or less, Esslinger says. This year, about 75,000 of the district\u2019s acres were in production, and farmers received a ten-inch allotment of water from the Rio Grande Project. A normal allotment is 36 inches, and in 2017 \u2014 after a robust snowpack in the mountains \u2014 they received 24 inches.<\/p>\n<p>As in the past, farmers supplemented their irrigation supplies from the river by pumping groundwater. That\u2019s something farmers have done for decades, increasingly so since 2003. Farmers with larger landholdings will fallow some fields, not planting some fields so they can move what surface water they have closer to their irrigation wells, Esslinger explains. Then they can \u201cstack\u201d both surface and ground water on those lands.<\/p>\n<p>But Esslinger lets out a long, deep sigh when asked what will happen next year. Farmers can hope that the forecasts are right, that conditions in the Southwest will flip from La Ni\u00f1a to El Ni\u00f1o, bringing moisture to the region, he says. \u201cBut I\u2019m dealing with \u2018La Nada,\u2019\u201d Esslinger says. \u201cI have to face reality.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Watching the reservoir empty out this year makes farmers feel like they are running out of water, he says. At the same time, they\u2019re uncertain about how long their groundwater supplies will last, even though the district tries to monitor groundwater levels and has hired a full-time groundwater specialist.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not cratering; it\u2019s not Doomsville yet,\u201d he says. \u201cBut we\u2019ve got to find another source.\u201d People can pray for rain and snow, he says, but the challenge is finding a long-term, consistent water source. And western states, including New Mexico, don\u2019t have that.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEverybody\u2019s thinking, \u2018Well, climate change is really happening,\u2019 and I think we need to change the way we\u2019re thinking. We keep looking for improvement in the West,\u201d he says.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>With improvement unlikely, Esslinger says he\u2019s started considering more radical solutions \u2014 like whether western states could share the cost of a canal that would move water from the East, from someplace like the Mississippi River. \u201cPeople think I might be crazy, but I think we should start looking at it,\u201d he says. \u201cI don\u2019t think we can continue to keep playing this game of predicting and forecasting: we need to find some water and get it over here to the West.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Farmers face other challenges, too, including the growing expense of pumping groundwater and an \u201cinsurmountable\u201d number of regulations, he says. It\u2019s also hard to find workers to hand-pick crops like chile and onions, thanks to changes in immigration policy.<\/p>\n<p>Then there are the market pressures. This year, he explains, farms around Yuma, Arizona and southern California flooded the market with onions, forcing New Mexico farmers to sell theirs at a lower price. Cheaper alfalfa comes up from Mexico, he says. And even chile farmers have taken a hit: \u201cIn Mexico, they can grow chile and jalape\u00f1os much cheaper than we can grow it here, because of the labor, and they ship it here,\u201d he says. \u201cThen, when our chile is ready, the market we could have had is already been flooded by a lower-cost chile.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, as the average age of farmers in the West keeps rising \u2014 most are in their 50s, 60s or 70s \u2014 Esslinger questions who will farm New Mexico in the coming years. \u201cIt would be like taking your life savings to Vegas and gambling. What young farmer would want to do that?\u201d he asks. \u201cOr, if you\u2019re a farmer from Iowa or someplace else, where you grew up with a plentiful amount of water and rainfall to grow your crops, why would you come here?\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Looming impact of\u00a0<i>Texas v. New Mexico<\/i><\/h3>\n<p>Farmers in Southern New Mexico have yet another problem: uncertainty over a lawsuit moving through the U.S. Supreme Court.<\/p>\n<p>Five years ago,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/series\/texas-v-new-mexico-scotus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Texas sued New Mexico and Colorado<\/a>, alleging that New Mexico failed for decades to send its legal share of Rio Grande water downstream by allowing farmers in Southern New Mexico to pump groundwater from near the river. Texas filed the lawsuit after New Mexico sued over a 2008 operating agreement between the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, EBID and Texas water users.\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/794156\/in-deep-water-u-s-supreme-court-to-decide-how-states-share-the-drying-rio-grande-and-new-mexico-could-lose-big\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">This year, the Supreme Court allowed<\/a>\u00a0the U.S. government to intervene in the case against New Mexico.<\/p>\n<p>Although EBID lies within the boundaries of New Mexico, for the purposes of water and compliance with the Rio Grande Compact of 1938, it\u2019s more closely aligned with Texas.\u00a0That\u2019s because under the compact, New Mexico doesn\u2019t deliver Texas\u2019 water at the state line. Rather, water goes to Elephant Butte Reservoir, about 100 miles north of Texas. From there, the Reclamation delivers it to farmers in both Southern New Mexico and Texas.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe get a lot of harassment and bad press, with people saying, \u2018Why can\u2019t you just agree with [the state of New Mexico]?\u2019\u201d Esslinger says. \u201cBut when it comes to water accounting and the federal accounting of water through [Colorado, New Mexico and Texas], we\u2019re in Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_628726\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-628726\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676-771x466.jpg\" alt=\"Farm land\" width=\"771\" height=\"466\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676-771x466.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676-336x203.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676-768x464.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676-1170x707.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/IMG_2676.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Of the roughly 90,000 irrigable acres of land within EBID, about 75,000 are in production this year.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>All that confusion and uncertainty just makes things harder for farmers, he says.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are so many lines in the sand that have been crossed by our own officials in the state that it makes it very difficult to sit in a room and even try to talk about settlement or negotiation,\u201d Esslinger says. \u201cEveryone is fearful of what they might lose, so they have fortified their positions.\u201d People on opposites sides of the suit can\u2019t even visit with one another, he says. And they certainly can\u2019t plan for next year, never mind the longer-term future.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, as drought lengthens, water managers are refining their models and developing new technologies to manage water and also do things like reduce evaporation from reservoirs, says Reclamation\u2019s Carlson. Agencies, irrigation districts, hydrologists and stakeholders are in constant communication with one another, moving water and trying to work together in new ways.<\/p>\n<p>Along with partners, the federal agency also tried to keep as much water as possible flowing in the Middle Rio Grande this year, says Carlson. Recently, Reclamation\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/871685\/city-feds-make-water-deal-to-keep-rio-grande-flowing-through-abq-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leased 20,000 acre feet<\/a>\u00a0of water from the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority to keep the river running through the city through the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>And while it may be upsetting to see reservoirs like Elephant Butte drop so low this year, they have done their job, she says.<\/p>\n<p>Storing water from past years allows people to survive dry years like 2018, Carlson says. Despite this year\u2019s historically dry conditions, Reclamation delivered about 60 percent of a full supply of Rio Grande Project water this year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe live in the desert and are more and more dependent on reservoirs,\u201d she says. \u201cThis is the year that reservoirs were built for. Our reservoirs are doing what they were meant to do, and this year, Elephant Butte performed like a champ.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As for next year? \u201cWe\u2019re all on the edges of our seat,\u201d she says. \u201cWaiting to see what\u2019s to come.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elephant Butte Reservoir, the state&#8217;s largest, is at about three percent capacity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":628724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[147,277,3302],"class_list":["post-628719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-environment","tag-water","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=628719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/628719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/628724"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=628719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=628719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=628719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}