{"id":625057,"date":"2018-09-11T12:00:29","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T18:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=625057"},"modified":"2018-09-10T20:23:50","modified_gmt":"2018-09-11T02:23:50","slug":"colorado-river-declines-due-to-warming-new-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/09\/colorado-river-declines-due-to-warming-new-study-finds\/","title":{"rendered":"Colorado River declines due to warming, new study finds"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_625061\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-625061\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River-771x514.jpg\" alt=\"Colorado River\" width=\"771\" height=\"514\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River-771x514.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River-336x224.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River-1170x780.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Colorado-River.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Colorado River supplies water to seven states, including New Mexico.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The Colorado River supplies water to seven states, including New Mexico, before crossing the border into Mexico. Then \u2014 theoretically, nowadays \u2014 it reaches the Sea of Cortez. Demands from cities and farms, along with climate change, strain the river and affect its flows.<\/p>\n<p>Now, a new study shows that even though annual precipitation increased slightly between 1916 and 2014, Colorado River flows declined by 16.5 percent during that same time period. That\u2019s thanks, in large part, to \u201cunprecedented basin-wide warming.\u201d Warming reduces snowpack and increases the amount of water plants demand.<\/p>\n<p>Using experiments and a hydrology model, the trio of authors from the University of California-Los Angeles and Colorado State University found that 53 percent of the decrease in runoff is attributable to warming; the rest to reduced snowfall within regions that feed into the system.<\/p>\n<p>One of the study\u2019s authors, Bradley Udall, co-authored an\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/836022\/as-warming-continues-hot-drought-becomes-the-norm-not-an-exception\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earlier paper with Jonathan Overpeck<\/a>\u00a0showing a drop in river flows. What\u2019s striking about the new study, Udall explained, is how much of the decline is due to warming relative to precipitation.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article comes from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/876673\/new-study-colorado-river-declines-due-to-warming-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New Mexico Political Report<\/a>,\u00a0a nonprofit news organization\u00a0focused on promoting a greater public understanding of politics and policy in New Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>\u201cClimate change isn\u2019t in the future: it\u2019s here now, it\u2019s affecting all of us, and it will become increasingly worse as time goes on,\u201d said Udall, senior water and climate research scientist at the Colorado Water Institute at Colorado State University. \u201cClimate change is in our face right now: It\u2019s western fires, it\u2019s drought, it\u2019s river flows.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He cautioned that the study\u2019s results are based on one model and one data set.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat said, I think the model is telling us something that\u2019s really valuable,\u201d he said. \u201cThe feedback loop \u2014 self-reinforcing cycles, where dryness begets heat, which further begets dryness \u2014 is probably at the root cause of what\u2019s causing these 50 percent declines.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In short, he said, the model points toward the further aridification of the region.<\/p>\n<p>The model also shows how sensitive the Colorado River Basin is to shifts in precipitation patterns. Not only does it matter whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, it matters where it falls. Snowfall in Colorado, he explained, contributes more to the river\u2019s flows than if it falls in Utah. Unfortunately, the researchers noted a decline in snowfall within four important sub-basins of the river, all within the state of Colorado.<\/p>\n<p>The paper, he said, is also a reminder that we need respond to climate change right now.<\/p>\n<p>One of the biggest long-term issues is how to have an agricultural system that\u2019s resilient, even decades from now.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s no way that the [sector] that uses 75 percent of the water cannot be in the cross-hairs,\u201d he said. \u201cWe need to think about how to make that sector healthy, viable and responsive to these coming changes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He also cautioned that states and water users can\u2019t \u201cengineer\u201d their way out of the problems. In Colorado, for instance, he said there are discussions about building more reservoirs at higher elevations, where there would be less evaporation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a good discussion to have and a necessary one to have, but I\u2019m very skeptical that engineering solutions are the ultimate answer,\u201d Udall said. \u201cAt some point, we\u2019re going to have to look at demand and how we manage to shed demand [in a way] that does the least amount of damage to communities and the environment and our economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1029\/2018WR023153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0study was published<\/a>\u00a0at the end of August by\u00a0<i>Water Resources Research<\/i>, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Geophysical Union.<\/p>\n<h3>As goes the Colorado, so goes the Rio Grande<\/h3>\n<p>This year, New Mexico\u2019s largest river is in even worse shape than the Colorado River. After a bad winter, the Rio Grande has experienced record low flows \u2014 even\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/834338\/a-dry-rio-grande-in-springtime-isnt-normal-but-it-will-be-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">drying<\/a>, beginning in April \u2014 and\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/838092\/given-drought-and-dropping-reservoirs-water-issues-critical-for-next-governor-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declining reservoir levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, since earlier this summer, water in the Middle Rio Grande that isn\u2019t directly related to monsoon storms is from the Colorado River Basin.<\/p>\n<p>The San Juan-Chama Project moves water from tributaries of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River. The water is piped to the Chama River, which flows into the Rio Grande near Espa\u00f1ola. Cities like Albuquerque and Santa Fe have rights to that water, as do some of New Mexico\u2019s tribes and the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Recently, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation even<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/871685\/city-feds-make-water-deal-to-keep-rio-grande-flowing-through-abq-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0paid the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority<\/a>\u00a0$2 million for 20,000 acre feet of stored San Juan-Chama Project water to try to keep the Rio Grande flowing through Albuquerque through the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEssentially, it is imported Colorado River water that has been keeping our Rio Grande wet,\u201d said John Fleck, director of the Water Resources Program at the University of New Mexico. \u201cWe would have a dry river in Albuquerque right now without imported water, Albuquerque would have to be pumping groundwater unsustainably and farmers wouldn\u2019t have irrigation water.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Engineers and planners had the foresight in the mid-Twentieth century to realize there would be more demands for water in the Middle Rio Grande in the future, he said, and they created the San Juan-Chama Project. \u201cBut it also shows how tenuous and interconnected the system has become,\u201d Fleck said. The Middle Rio Grande is now inextricably tied to the Colorado River Basin, he said, as this year demonstrated all too clearly.<\/p>\n<p>The new study is further evidence of what we already knew: that the San Juan-Chama Project is at risk of decline, said Fleck. And while the study focused on the Colorado River Basin, he said its message applies to the Rio Grande Basin, as well.<\/p>\n<p>He hopes it might spur a conversation that New Mexicans, and Albuquerque residents in particular, haven\u2019t had yet \u2014 about how we value the river that flows through our city.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve never had a serious community conversation about what we value, what we want when it comes to this native ecosystem in the midst of the city,\u201d he said, noting that protections of the river and its ecosystem fall under compliance with the federal Endangered Species Act \u2014 and specifically the mandate to prevent the extinction of rare species like the Rio Grande silvery minnow and the southwestern willow flycatcher.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt some point,\u201d he said, \u201cwe need to talk about, what kind of flows do we want? What kind of habitat do we want? And what do we care about as a community?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Colorado River supplies water to seven states, including New Mexico, before crossing the border into Mexico.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":625061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[284,147,277],"class_list":["post-625057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-water"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}