{"id":610557,"date":"2018-08-05T07:00:08","date_gmt":"2018-08-05T13:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=610557"},"modified":"2018-08-06T05:49:37","modified_gmt":"2018-08-06T11:49:37","slug":"drought-maintains-its-grip-on-nm-despite-storms-but-el-nino-is-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/08\/drought-maintains-its-grip-on-nm-despite-storms-but-el-nino-is-on-the-horizon\/","title":{"rendered":"Drought maintains its grip on NM despite storms, but El Ni\u00f1o is on the horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_610563\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-610563\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2207sm-771x513.jpg\" alt=\"Monsoon season in New Mexico\" width=\"771\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2207sm-771x513.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2207sm-336x224.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2207sm-768x511.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2207sm.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Monsoon season in New Mexico.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Anyone who recently watched recent floodwaters rip down the Santa Fe River or the Rio Puerco \u2014 or had a skylight punctured by hail \u2014 might be tempted to declare that the annual monsoons ended New Mexico\u2019s drought.<\/p>\n<p>But breaking the drought requires more than a handful of rainstorms, even big storms. And grappling with its impacts means policymakers should listen to scientists and constituents, ranging from farmers to city-dwellers.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven though we got a lot of rain, and there\u2019s great reporting on floods and great pictures on the internet, it\u2019s a slow process to make up for what we\u2019ve lost,\u201d said New Mexico\u2019s state climatologist, David DuBois.<\/p>\n<p>The weekly New Mexico Drought Monitor, released Thursday, shows improvements in New Mexico, mainly in the eastern part of the state. But 99.9 percent of the state is still in drought, with 46 percent of the state experiencing exceptional or extreme drought conditions. Compare that with this time last year, when 95 percent of the state wasn\u2019t experiencing any drought conditions.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-610561\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/20180731_NM_trd-771x595.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"771\" height=\"595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/20180731_NM_trd.png 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/20180731_NM_trd-336x259.png 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/20180731_NM_trd-768x593.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Even if storms continue dumping rains in certain parts of the state, it will still take another month of steady storms to improve conditions, said DuBois. That\u2019s because the current drought episode began last fall. And the winter\u2019s \u201csnow drought\u201d continues to hurt New Mexico\u2019s water supplies.<\/p>\n<p>Navajo Reservoir on the San Juan River has dropped about 100,000 acre feet since last month. On the Pecos, water managers released 30,000 acre feet from Santa Rosa Lake to Brantley Reservoir downstream for the Carlsbad Irrigation District. Heron Lake on the Chama River is down about 30,000 acre feet from last month \u2014 and nearby El Vado Reservoir is holding only 9,000 acre feet in total right now. Irrigation water is also being released from Elephant Butte Reservoir, which is at<a href=\"https:\/\/waterdatafortexas.org\/reservoirs\/individual\/elephant-butte\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a06.4 percent capacity<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Middle Rio Grande is flowing continuously for the first time since April, thanks to storm flows through the Rio Puerco and Albuquerque\u2019s diversion system. But its levels are still low. So are levels on the Jemez River, the Animas River and the Pecos River.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_610565\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-610565\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_1930-771x578.jpg\" alt=\"Abiquiu Reservoir\" width=\"771\" height=\"578\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_1930.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_1930-336x252.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_1930-768x576.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Abiquiu Reservoir on the Chama River at the end of July.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Even if winter precipitation looks good on paper, if it falls as rain instead of snow, that\u2019s a problem for New Mexico. \u201cThen you have the rain soaking in, and we\u2019re not getting the storage we need for later when we have the runoff season,\u201d DuBois said. \u201cEven if we have good precipitation, it bites us in the tail because we don\u2019t get that delivery when we need it in the spring.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Better communication<\/h3>\n<p>DuBois regularly travels the state, holding workshops, visiting with farmers and ranchers and maintaining monitoring sites. He said most people he meets, from all walks of life, understand the climate is changing and the region is warming. But they don\u2019t know what to do.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists can provide outlooks and projections. But people are unsure what to do with that information. \u201cThere needs to be more discussion of problem-solving,\u201d he said. There also needs to be better communication between scientists and policymakers.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists sounded the alarm last fall about drought conditions. By January, with a lack of snowpack in the mountains, the situation looked dire \u2014 and by spring, exceptional drought conditions had taken over the state.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, the Office of the Governor failed to issue a drought declaration until July, when 98.6 percent of the state was already rated abnormally dry or worse. From San Juan County to Union County, crop reports showed that range conditions were poor and water availability low. Not only that, but aside from issuing the July 11\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.governor.state.nm.us\/uploads\/FileLinks\/5634a3c59b924b1ba8ca6072b986dc45\/Executive_Order_2018_031.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">executive order<\/a>, Gov. Susana Martinez does not appear to have taken any action on the emergency.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article comes from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/nmpoliticalreport.com\/866211\/drought-maintains-its-grip-on-nm-but-el-nino-is-on-the-horizon-en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">New Mexico Political Report<\/a>,\u00a0a nonprofit news organization\u00a0focused on promoting a greater public understanding of politics and policy in the state of New Mexico.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>According to the order, the state has suffered a prolonged drought since October 2017, raising the risk of wildfire, agricultural losses and flooding due to severe wildfires.<\/p>\n<p>It also acknowledged that drought is threatening drinking water and irrigation supplies \u2014 and it might take several years of higher than normal levels of snowpack and precipitation for reservoirs and soil moisture conditions to recover.<\/p>\n<p>The drought is of such a magnitude, according to the order, that it is beyond local control and requires additional resources. Not only that, but \u201cextraordinary measures may be necessary to protect public health, ensure public safety and wellbeing, and provide for the economic stability of the state.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As part of the statewide emergency, Martinez ordered the State Drought Task Force to review and recommend actions, as well as recipients of emergency funding, to the governor.<\/p>\n<p>But the governor has yet to convene the Drought Task Force, and drought planning<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmdrought.state.nm.us\/dtf_planning.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0links on the governor\u2019s website<\/a>\u00a0show only a 2006 New Mexico Drought Plan and 2008 recommendations from the task force. Both those documents precede Martinez\u2019s tenure as governor.<\/p>\n<p><i>NM Political Report<\/i>\u00a0called and emailed Benjamin Cloutier, the Office of the Governor\u2019s communications director. Cloutier did not respond.<\/p>\n<h3>\u2018Cautiously optimistic\u2019 about El Ni\u00f1o<\/h3>\n<p>The monsoon rains have been good for many places across the state, but Royce Fontenot, senior service hydrologist and incident meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, likes to use the human body as an analogy.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYour body expects food and nourishment at certain times, and when you don\u2019t get that, it suffers,\u201d he explained: \u201cSay someone handed you a Big Mac\u201d \u2014 a heavy monsoon storm \u2014 \u201cthat might help you for a day or two, but you\u2019re still starving.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the same with the ecosystem: Even a few heavy rainstorms aren\u2019t enough to make up for the lack of precipitation over months and months.<\/p>\n<p>New Mexico is an arid state, he said, but that doesn\u2019t mean drought isn\u2019t a problem.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy and large, New Mexico is a dry state \u2014 we do go from White Sands to beautiful high-elevation forests \u2014 but the ecosystem expects water, even if it\u2019s not a lot of water,\u201d Fontenot said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_610567\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-610567\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2168-m-771x513.jpg\" alt=\"Valley Grande\" width=\"771\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2168-m.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2168-m-336x224.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/IMG_2168-m-768x511.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Laura Paskus \/ New Mexico Political Report<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Valle Grande still has a ways to go toward greening up.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Mountain ecosystems are dependent upon snows, as are the state\u2019s two biggest rivers, the Rio Grande and the Pecos River. \u201cEven in the desert, we have precipitation at certain times of year, and the system expects that,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen we don\u2019t have that, and don\u2019t have that over time, the deficits build.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>There is some good news: El Ni\u00f1o is (probably) coming.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, there\u2019s a 75 percent chance of El Ni\u00f1o conditions in the northern hemisphere this winter.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is dependent on sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean \u2014 and for New Mexico, El Ni\u00f1o conditions can mean increased precipitation: better monsoons in the summer and increased snowfall in the winter.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, the three-month outlook for August through October shows robust monsoon conditions, which will improve drought conditions, but probably not eliminate them altogether. Into the fall and early winter, forecasts indicate El Ni\u00f1o could bring normal and above-normal precipitation for the state.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Fontenot is cautiously optimistic about El Ni\u00f1o. The catch, he said, is how much precipitation will New Mexico and its watersheds receive \u2014 and in what form. El Ni\u00f1o sets up a good chance for cooler and wetter conditions over the winter, but it\u2019s a system that can shut down.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe $64,000 question then is, What if we don\u2019t have a normal winter? What if we have a bust winter?\u201d he asked. \u201cWhat if we don\u2019t have a good water year?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s reservoirs are only as high as they are due to water stored from past good years. If New Mexico misses out on another snowpack, many of the state\u2019s reservoirs will be nearing empty.<\/p>\n<p>New Mexico experienced record high snowpacks during the winter of 2016-2017 \u2014 and then record lows in 2017-2018, Fontenot pointed out. \u201cHow do you plan for one year, where you\u2019re worried about flooding, and then six months later, you\u2019re worried about having enough water to keep your community alive?\u201d he asked: \u201cYou need to be planning for variability.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Climate change is \u201cchanging the baseline,\u201d he said. And in New Mexico, that means changing what we expect in terms of water.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday,<a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/news\/2766\/june-2018-ties-for-third-warmest-june-on-record\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0NASA announced<\/a>\u00a0that June 2018 tied for the third-warmest June on record, continuing a four-decade long warming trend. The agency\u2019s monthly analysis is based on 6,300 meteorological stations worldwide, sea surface temperature readings and research stations in Antarctica. And the National Weather Service\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWSAlbuquerque\/status\/1025111951658110976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">noted last week<\/a>\u00a0that Albuquerque is on pace for its warmest year on record.<\/p>\n<p>In all sectors \u2014 from agricultural to urban \u2014 people should be planning for variability, Fontenot said. That means figuring out how to take care of this year\u2019s boom &#8212; and this year\u2019s bust.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Breaking the drought requires more than a handful of rainstorms, even big storms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":610563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[284,3672,147,277,3302],"class_list":["post-610557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-climate-change","tag-drought","tag-environment","tag-water","tag-weather"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=610557"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/610557\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/610563"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=610557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=610557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=610557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}