{"id":496627,"date":"2018-01-05T12:00:20","date_gmt":"2018-01-05T19:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=496627"},"modified":"2018-01-08T18:53:38","modified_gmt":"2018-01-09T01:53:38","slug":"democratic-wave-probably-wont-snag-southern-nms-u-s-house-seat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2018\/01\/democratic-wave-probably-wont-snag-southern-nms-u-s-house-seat\/","title":{"rendered":"Democratic wave probably won\u2019t snag southern NM\u2019s U.S. House seat"},"content":{"rendered":"

COMMENTARY:\u00a0<\/strong>There\u2019s been a clear Democratic wave in American politics since Donald Trump became president. Don\u2019t expect that trend to propel Democrats to victory in southern New Mexico\u2019s congressional race this year.<\/p>\n

Sure, it\u2019s possible Democrats can win the 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House. But it\u2019s likely that another Republican will replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce.<\/p>\n

\"Heath

Heath Haussamen<\/p><\/div>\n

Democrats sometimes asked me during Pearce\u2019s time in the House why their party couldn\u2019t unseat him. The question usually came from the north, where a tea party congressman appears out of touch with New Mexico\u2019s values.<\/p>\n

Underneath that question was often a fundamental misunderstanding of southern New Mexico.<\/p>\n

Pearce is giving up the House seat this year to run for governor. Lots of Democrats and Republicans are in the race to replace him. While there isn\u2019t yet a frontrunner, former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, a Republican, announced a big endorsement Thursday from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Cruz said Newman \u201chas shown his commitment to work tirelessly to promote principles that reflect the values of the people of his district.\u201d<\/p>\n

To have a shot at winning, Democrats will have to tap into those values \u2013 the libertarian-leaning and morally conservative energy that pervades much of southern New Mexico.<\/p>\n

The district is roughly the size of Pennsylvania. It includes the state\u2019s second-largest urban center, Las Cruces, which has become an overwhelmingly Democratic region thanks to changing demographics and strong organizing.<\/p>\n

Outside of Do\u00f1a Ana County, the district is vastly different. People depend on oil, gas and ranching, and many view their jobs and way of life as under attack from the left. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the 2nd District \u2013 41 percent to 36 percent<\/a>. But self-interest trumps ideology.<\/p>\n

Democrats nationally are pushing for gun control. That\u2019s a non-starter for many rural folks who are far from a sheriff\u2019s deputy when they need help. A campaign to defend an endangered species or a mesa from ranching or drilling lands with a thud for many whose jobs are dependent on those industries.<\/p>\n

Though this is one of the most Latino congressional districts<\/a> in the United States, Democrats have punted on immigration reform<\/a> and not given many Latinos much reason to show up on Election Day.<\/p>\n

The last Democrat this district\u2019s voters sent to Washington was Harry Teague in 2008. The politically moderate owner of an oil company took on the nearly impossible task of balancing his party\u2019s plans with his district\u2019s desires.<\/p>\n

It didn\u2019t work<\/a>. Voters replaced Teague with Pearce in 2010.<\/p>\n

Because, in spite of Las Cruces\u2019 growth, this is a rural district. Even if Democrats win the seat this year, they are unlikely to hold it for long. They\u2019d have to make a more intentional and long-term effort to organize throughout the district and build new support systems for people. And the region would have to become less dependent on oil, gas and ranching.<\/p>\n

Given the reality of New Mexico\u2019s economy, that isn\u2019t likely to happen anytime soon.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

Heath Haussamen<\/a>\u00a0is NMPolitics.net\u2019s editor and publisher.\u00a0Agree with his opinion? Disagree? We welcome your views. Learn about submitting your own commentary\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s likely that another Republican will replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce. Here’s why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":383420,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1192,10],"tags":[2238,219],"class_list":["post-496627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-haussamen-columns","tag-2018-election","tag-2nd-congressional-district"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/496627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=496627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/496627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/383420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=496627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=496627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=496627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}