{"id":40949,"date":"2012-06-14T20:21:10","date_gmt":"2012-06-15T02:21:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=40949"},"modified":"2012-06-17T23:12:09","modified_gmt":"2012-06-18T05:12:09","slug":"youth-could-decide-mexican-presidential-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2012\/06\/youth-could-decide-mexican-presidential-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Youth could decide Mexican presidential race"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Andr\u00e9s<\/a>

Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, left, and Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto. The two are considered the leading candidates in the race.<\/p><\/div>\n

With the presidential race coming up on July 1, the most significant development of the electoral year may be the emergence of a new youth movement demanding media and democratic reforms.<\/h4>\n

With a little more than two weeks remaining before Mexicans elect new leaders on July 1, the presidential race appears to have narrowed between Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto<\/a> of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)\u00a0and Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador<\/a> of a three-party coalition united in the progressive movement.<\/p>\n

If the polls and the word on the street are accurate, Mexicans will forsake the opportunity to elect the nation\u2019s first woman president, Josefina V\u00e1zquez Mota<\/a> of President Felipe Calder\u00f3n\u2019s conservative National Action Party. A fourth candidate, the National Alliance\u2019s Gabriel Quadri<\/a>, is polling in the single digits.<\/p>\n

The last days of the 2012 races are characterized by rising tension, intense bouts of campaigning, media scandals and battles, and the unpredictable impact of a surprise element that could go down as the most significant development of the electoral year: the emergence of a new youth movement demanding media and democratic reforms.<\/p>\n

Millions of second- and first-time voters in the 18-24 age category could be the decisive force in the 2012 elections, according to Fernando Rivera Ibarra, a former citizen councilor for the Federal Electoral Institute and a political analyst in the central Mexican city of Aguascalientes.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany of them are going to go out and vote,\u201d Rivera said in an interview with Frontera NorteSur<\/a>. \u201cIt is not known how many, but they have awakened through the (protest) movement. Many are going to vote consciously. It is an unstoppable movement. The parties can\u2019t contaminate it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Readily visible<\/h3>\n

On and above the streets, the candidates and their supporters are readily visible. In Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez last weekend, as the four presidential contenders prepared for their second and final nationally televised debate, the PRI and allied PVEM (Green Party) deployed dozens of campaign workers attired in alliance t-shirts at the intersection of Francisco Villa and 16 de Septiembre in the border city\u2019s downtown core.<\/p>\n

Well-stocked with supplies, the workers passed out literature, bumper stickers and plastic bags promoting Pe\u00f1a Nieto and other PRI candidates.<\/p>\n

Like other Mexican cities, Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez\u2019s skyline has been transformed by huge political billboards, especially those supporting Pe\u00f1a Nieto and the PRI. For his part, Gabriel Quadri has appropriated the figure of Mahatma Gandhi, covering a Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez billboard with an image of the Indian and world pacifist leader along with a message for peace.<\/p>\n

The billboards, bus posters and political trinkets, not to mention campaign staff, all cost handsome sums of money, the full expenditures of which are not clear at this point in the electoral game.<\/p>\n

\u2018The principal problem in Mexico is employment\u2019<\/h3>\n

Insisting that he is at the head of the pack, L\u00f3pez Obrador is maintaining a grueling, two-state tour each day before June 27, when he plans on closing his campaign with a massive march and rally in Mexico City. This week, the former Mexico City mayor touched down in the drought-stricken state of Aguascalientes, where he delivered a long speech to hundreds of supporters gathered in the capital city\u2019s main plaza.<\/p>\n

Rural and urban residents, young and old, professionals and students, all formed an enthusiastic audience that was draped in the yellow, orange and red colors of the Progressive Movement parties and kept on its feet by the cumbia sounds of L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s Morena movement anthem.<\/p>\n

Under a blazing, mid-day sun, L\u00f3pez Obrador countered criticisms that he is a dangerous radical. He repeated a controversial pledge to implement an austere government by slashing the salaries of high federal officials, some of whom he claimed make about $50,000 per month and earn even more than their Brazilian counterparts, while cutting back on foreign travel by officials.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe aren\u2019t going to lower the salaries of the majority of government workers, who earn little. This is not the problem,\u201d the candidate said. \u201cIt\u2019s shameful when you ask for (an official) and are told \u2018no, he\u2019s in Brazil or at a congress in France.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

The undisputed leader of Mexico\u2019s electoral left, L\u00f3pez Obrador reiterated that a frontal attack on government corruption and wasteful spending will provide the funds necessary to pay for new programs to rescue the countryside, lower energy costs, increase pensions, support students and generate jobs.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there is no work, it affects everyone,\u201d he argued. \u201cThe principal problem in Mexico is employment.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018This movement for transformation is historic\u2019<\/h3>\n

After listening to the presidential hopeful\u2019s promises, Aguascalientes mother Andrea Martinez said she liked the proposals for more educational grants and state provision of school uniforms. \u201cIt\u2019s a good thing to support students and young people so they don\u2019t fall into delinquency,\u201d Martinez said.<\/p>\n

In terms of the campaign\u2019s final stages, L\u00f3pez Obrador warned of the intensification of negative campaigning and attempts to buy the election, specifically by means of trading budget-busting household supplies, construction materials and farm animals for votes. Expressing confidence that the progressive movement in Aguascalientes had its bases covered, L\u00f3pez Obrador nevertheless urged his supporters to carefully monitor the voting booths on July 1.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf we don\u2019t take care of the polls, we leave open he possibility that the will of the people won\u2019t be respected,\u201d he said. Sprinkling his speech with references to revered Mexican President Benito Ju\u00e1rez, L\u00f3pez Obrador almost completely refrained from attacking his opponents and only made a brief mention of Pe\u00f1a Nieto.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis movement for transformation is historic,\u201d he declared. \u201cWe have the opportunity to change the direction of this country.\u201d<\/p>\n

The unsuccessful 2006 presidential candidate was accompanied on stage in Aguascalientes by local candidates for the federal Congress, which turns over its membership this year, and by Labor Party founder Alberto Anaya and Citizen Movement party leader General Armando L\u00f3pez.<\/p>\n

An uphill battle<\/h3>\n

In Aguascalientes at least, L\u00f3pez Obrador faces an uphill battle. Currently governed by the PRI, the state administration of Governor Carlos Lozano de la Torre has been particularly active, helping to revitalize the capital city\u2019s downtown and presiding over the announcement of the planned opening of a second Nissan factory and its thousands of new jobs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are betting everything on Nissan,\u201d said analyst Rivera. \u201cIf another tsunami hits Japan, it will affect the whole state.\u201d<\/p>\n

Standing in the shade off to the side of L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s speech, two young women acknowledged that the candidate had his share of supporters. But they quickly added that the other parties had even more people on their sides. Both said they would vote for Pe\u00f1a Nieto.<\/p>\n

Local resident Erika Rosales cited Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u2019s positions on senior pensions, computer education for children and insecurity. \u201cI like his proposals and his ideas,\u201d Rosales said.<\/p>\n

Winner \u2018will have to be a great negotiator\u2019<\/h3>\n

The day after L\u00f3pez Obrador spoke in Aguascalientes, the PAN\u2019S Josefina V\u00e1zquez assembled thousands of supporters in the same city, according to media estimates.<\/p>\n

L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s opponents are taking his challenge very seriously. Only hours after he departed Aguascalientes for the neighboring state of San Luis Potosi, a woman dashed into a popular downtown restaurant and distributed free copies of a glossy newspaper splashed with expensive color print.<\/p>\n

Usually going for four pesos, the weekly tabloid Ahi contained gaudy print attacking L\u00f3pez Obrador and comparing him with the late popular comedian Cantinflas. The same publication included positive pieces about Pe\u00f1a Nieto, featuring a centerfold of the young-looking candidate with his soap opera star wife Angelica Rivera and press chief David L\u00f3pez.<\/p>\n

Yet L\u00f3pez Obrador has managed to shift the bulk of media attention to his campaign \u2013 for better or worse. In an often-critical manner, the networks are focused on proposals emanating from the standard-bearer of the center-left, but the discussion is undoubtedly getting the candidate\u2019s platform out to the public.<\/p>\n

And in a possible media coup, the L\u00f3pez Obrador campaign is running an unprecedented television spot that has popular Mexico City mayor Marcelo Ebrard pledging to bring \u201cserenity\u201d to the country when he becomes L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s interior minister.<\/p>\n

Fernando Rivera predicted a very close race to the finish between L\u00f3pez Obrador and Pe\u00f1a Nieto. Yet the victorious candidate is unlikely to have either a 50 percent-plus ballot majority or control of the new Congress, he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhoever wins will have to be a great negotiator and have a good team of lobbyists,\u201d Rivera said.<\/p>\n

Frontera NorteSur is a U.S.-Mexico border news service run by the Center for Latin American and Border Studies at New Mexico State University. Find it online\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the presidential race coming up on July 1, the most significant development of the electoral year may be the emergence of a new youth movement demanding media and democratic reforms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2732,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[236],"class_list":["post-40949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-mexico"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2732"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}