{"id":3914,"date":"2008-10-30T12:13:00","date_gmt":"2008-10-30T18:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/10\/many-gop-operatives-fear-an-election-day-bloodbath\/"},"modified":"2008-10-30T12:13:00","modified_gmt":"2008-10-30T18:13:00","slug":"many-gop-operatives-fear-an-election-day-bloodbath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/10\/many-gop-operatives-fear-an-election-day-bloodbath\/","title":{"rendered":"Many GOP operatives fear an Election Day bloodbath"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Ask Republican candidates for office what they think of their chances on Tuesday, and even many of those who have no shot at winning — if you believe the polls — are expressing optimism. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ask GOP operatives what they expect on Election Day, and promise them anonymity in exchange for their answers, and you get a much different response.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Political operatives and analysts have suspected throughout this election cycle that the Republican Party would lose ground as a result of Tuesday\u2019s election, but, before the nation\u2019s economy tanked in September, a number of GOP operatives in New Mexico remained confident in off-the-record conversations that several of their candidates would win on Nov. 4, including Darren White<\/a> in the 1st Congressional District race, Minority Whip Leonard Lee Rawson<\/a> in the state Senate District 37 race, and, to a lesser degree, Ed Tinsley<\/a> in the 2nd District race and John McCain<\/a> in the presidential race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

At McCain\u2019s Saturday rally in Mesilla and in several conversations since, that sense of optimism was largely gone.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s already lost the state,\u201d one prominent GOP source said at the Mesilla rally about McCain. That was an opinion not shared by a different active Republican who said he believes Democrats will probably win every congressional race, but McCain will win New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> because he is a moderate candidate whom undecided, conservative Hispanics will pick in the final days of the election.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Though various GOP operatives interviewed for this article still have high hopes for certain candidates in the state\u2019s hottest races — most often McCain, White and Rawson — the sum of a number of conversations with Republican and Democratic operatives is a growing belief that Democrats might win all federal races in New Mexico — president, U.S. Senate and three House races — and that Democratic challengers might defeat Republican incumbents Rawson and Diane Snyder<\/a>, R-Albuquerque, in the hottest state Senate races.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Such a scenario would be a seismic political shift for a state that currently has three Republicans and two Democrats in its congressional delegation.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt really is demoralizing,\u201d said one GOP operative close to the campaigns who spoke on the condition of anonymity. \u201cWe were really holding tough until the economy tanked, and then the bottom fell out.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That operative says he still believes White and Rawson can win, but he sounds less optimistic than he did several weeks ago. Tinsley is probably going to lose, he said, and 3rd District candidate Dan East<\/a> and U.S. Senate candidate Steve Pearce<\/a> have no chance of victory.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Snyder\u2019s biggest problem, the operative said, is that polls have indicated \u201ca real possibility\u201d that Obama will \u201crun away\u201d with Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>. That operative is one of several who said Rawson, who was viewed several months ago as untouchable, is now in a tight race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Signs point to potential losses
<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Rawson was among a number of elected officials, including Tinsley, Pearce and East, who said in e-mails and interviews that they\u2019re optimistic about their chances on Tuesday. But GOP operatives point to several signs of a potential bloodbath:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 While early voting is at record levels in Obama-friendly Albuquerque<\/a> and high across the state<\/a>, one GOP stronghold appears to be lacking the fire that\u2019s driving people to the polls in other counties. The Farmington Daily Times<\/a> reported on Wednesday that about half as many people had voted early as of Tuesday in Republican-friendly San Juan County compared to the number who voted early during the same period in 2004.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 White and Tinsley trail by narrow margins in the most recent publicly released polling of their races. The fundraising arm of House Democrats has spent millions to promote their candidates, while the cash-strapped House Republicans\u2019 campaign group has done little to help White or Tinsley.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 McCain trails Obama by several percentage points in polls in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and across the nation, and Pearce trails Tom Udall<\/a> by roughly 15 points in polls of the Senate race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A second GOP operative said that, if the election \u201cturns out to be as bad for Republicans as some fear,\u201d the cause will be national forces: \u201cthe worst political environment for Republicans since Watergate and a woeful lack of resources nationally.\u201d The fundraising arm of Senate Republicans is in as bad a position as the House group. Both have had to take out emergency loans to try to stop the bleeding.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

As a result, candidates in whom the national GOP once placed a lot of hope, such as White, have been left to fend for themselves.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Democrats aren\u2019t celebrating yet. Brian Col\u00f3n, chairman of the state Democratic Party, said the party has strong candidates, but \u201canything can happen between now and Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cAs we have seen in the past, this state can decide the fate of a president with as little as a few hundred votes, which is why we aren\u2019t taking anything for granted,\u201d Col\u00f3n said. \u201cUntil the polls close on Nov. 4, we will be out knocking on doors, phone-banking, holding early vote events throughout the state and driving voters to the polls, so that when we wake up on Nov. 5, we have done everything we can to turn New Mexico blue.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

After Tuesday<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There is one bright spot for the GOP in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, the second operative said: The state Republican Party has outraised the state Democratic Party this election cycle. While that may not be enough to stop the bleeding this year, it can help the party rebuild in 2010.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

For that to happen, the operative said, winning the governor\u2019s race in 2010 \u201cis do or die.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition to the impact a Republican governor will have on building the party and fundraising, it\u2019s absolutely critical for redistricting,\u201d the operative said. \u201cIf Republicans do not have a seat at the table for redistricting in 2011, we will once again be gerrymandered into the minority in the Legislature and the congressional seats will be heavily tilted towards the Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The active Republican who believes McCain will win said the party is going to have to change in order to regain ground, and he expects it will take at least eight to 12 years for that to happen. He cited the fact that the ideologue Pearce defeated the more pragmatic Heather Wilson<\/a> in the GOP U.S. Senate primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a clear example of the two camps at battle in the Republican Party, and it clearly shows how many more of those old Republicans there are than the new, pragmatic ones,\u201d the operative said, adding that he believes Wilson would be in a much closer battle with Udall than Pearce is.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The operative said the party must return to its core values while, at the same time, modernizing. He said the Republican Party of the 21st Century must become more pragmatic.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cRome<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is burning and, in these ashes of the Republican Party, a new leadership will arise,\u201d he said. \u201cA new party that gets back to their principles, along with that 21st century pragmatism, needs to rise.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ask Republican candidates for office what they think of their chances on Tuesday, and even many of those who have no shot at winning — if you believe the polls — are expressing optimism. Ask GOP operatives what they expect on Election Day, and promise them anonymity in exchange for their answers, and you get […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3914\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}