{"id":3794,"date":"2008-10-02T15:56:00","date_gmt":"2008-10-02T21:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/10\/pundits-figure-out-that-2nd-district-race-is-hot\/"},"modified":"2008-10-02T15:56:00","modified_gmt":"2008-10-02T21:56:00","slug":"pundits-figure-out-that-2nd-district-race-is-hot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/10\/pundits-figure-out-that-2nd-district-race-is-hot\/","title":{"rendered":"Pundits figure out that 2nd District race is hot"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>National pundits have begun to realize what many living in southern New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s 2nd Congressional District have known for months: The race to replace Steve Pearce<\/a> in Congress is hot. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Cook Political Report<\/a> today changed its ranking of the race from \u201clean Republican\u201d to \u201ctoss up.\u201d The report mentions a recently released internal poll<\/a> from Democratic candidate Harry Teague<\/a> that has him leading Republican Ed Tinsley<\/a> by 5 percentage points. Though the poll is a month old and was conducted before Tinsley started advertising on television, it\u2019s the only polling on the race that has been released publicly.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u201cWhile this district\u2019s conservatism should provide Tinsley a boost, insiders say he has run a less than perfect campaign. At an August forum, Tinsley went off message when he said that Teague wanted to \u2018cut (troops) throats\u2019 by cutting off funding for the war,\u201d Cook Political Report stated in a posting about today\u2019s rankings change. \u201cMeanwhile, Teague has tied his business credentials to the district\u2019s roots, emphasizing his direct experience with oil and the issue of energy. \u2026 Democrats may still have a better shot at picking up the politically friendlier 1st CD open seat, but this is now a top tier race as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In addition, the Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> publication Roll Call<\/a> ran an article today calling the race \u201csurprisingly close.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the race for New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s open 2nd district that wealthy restaurateur Ed Tinsley (R) has been widely expected to win, should he in fact be considered the underdog?\u201d the article asks. \u201cTinsley\u2019s Democratic opponent Harry Teague, and New Mexico Democrats generally, won\u2019t go so far as to make such a claim. But they are brimming with confidence, suggesting it\u2019s fine with them if others do.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Rs and Ds share opinions<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The article states that Republicans \u201cfamiliar with this race did not necessarily dispute Teague\u2019s poll numbers. But they said the Democrat has serious political problems on the issues of greatest concern to 2nd district voters, and they expect Tinsley to benefit accordingly as the campaign enters its final stretch — particularly in a presidential year in which the GOP presidential nominee is expected to win southern New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> handily.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Democrats following the race, according to the article, \u201cchalk up Teague\u2019s competitiveness to his profile and Tinsley\u2019s, at times, poorly run campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

What\u2019s so great about Teague? According to the article, he \u201cis a business owner — apparently beloved by his employees — and based in Lea<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place>, considered key over the years to winning the 2nd district.\u201d Tinsley, meanwhile, is \u201clikeable, and on some of the issues that matter most to voters — like the Iraq War, energy and the Second Amendment — is positioned further to the right than Teague and therefore more in line with the 2nd district electorate,\u201d the article states.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But the article refers to Tinsley\u2019s shifts in campaign managers<\/a> in stating that his campaign has, at times, \u201cbeen unfocused and beset by missteps.\u201d Teague\u2019s campaign, while a \u201cless-than-stellar operation\u201d during the primary, \u201chas been smooth sailing\u201d since Teague replaced his campaign manager<\/a> shortly after the primary, the article states.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The money<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Money is also a factor. The Tinsley campaign told Roll Call that Teague has dramatically outspent Tinsley, although new finance reports for the last three months won\u2019t be available for another week or two. Tinsley\u2019s campaign confirmed today that Tinsley has contributed $500,000 to his campaign during the general election. That\u2019s on top of the $235,000 he contributed during the primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Teague contributed $764,572 to his campaign during the primary. A spokesman refused to comment today on whether Teague has added to that total during the general election.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Another reason Teague is competitive: Third-party groups backing him have been active in attacking Tinsley on television and in mailers.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Timothy P. Carney, an analyst for Human Events<\/a>, wrote today that, while Republicans should hold on to the 1st Congressional District seat, \u201cDemocrats should pick up the seat of Rep. Steve Pearce.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Time will tell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

National pundits have begun to realize what many living in southern New Mexico\u2019s 2nd Congressional District have known for months: The race to replace Steve Pearce in Congress is hot. Cook Political Report today changed its ranking of the race from \u201clean Republican\u201d to \u201ctoss up.\u201d The report mentions a recently released internal poll from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3794\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}