{"id":3754,"date":"2008-09-24T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-09-24T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/09\/were-crashing-can-we-find-a-way-to-land-safely\/"},"modified":"2009-08-22T14:47:00","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T20:47:00","slug":"were-crashing-can-we-find-a-way-to-land-safely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/09\/were-crashing-can-we-find-a-way-to-land-safely\/","title":{"rendered":"We&#8217;re crashing: Can we find a way to land safely?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"MsoNormal\">In a recent conversation, my dad summed up the current financial crisis better than I could have: We\u2019re trying to figure out how to engineer a controlled crash landing instead of allowing an all-out nosedive into the ground.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">I believe he\u2019s right. The situation is that serious. Democrats and Republicans alike, in their words and actions, have indicated that the collapse of <st1:country-region st=\"on\">America<\/st1:country-region>\u2019s financial markets may be imminent if <st1:state st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> doesn\u2019t step in and do something drastic. Such a collapse could send us into the next <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Great_Depression\" target=\"_blank\">Great Depression<\/a>. The last few days have been one of those moments in history like the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929\" target=\"_blank\">stock-market crash of 1929<\/a> that children will learn about in school.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">In an age before globalization, that depression was worldwide. Today, such a depression would have catastrophic effects in our interconnected world. Some third-world governments would literally collapse into chaos.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Who knows what will happen in <st1:country-region st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">America<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>. How bad can this get? I think it\u2019s telling that the presidential candidates have been largely bumped from the news cycle and that, while politicking is still happening, a little more than a month before one of the most critical and hotly contested elections in our nation\u2019s history, even many <st1:state st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> politicians have set aside the election to deal with the current crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">So what\u2019s this crash landing going to look like? To survive this mess, I believe we have to pay down debt with increased taxes and reduced spending. And we\u2019re going to have to dramatically change or perhaps even increase regulation to put an end to the practices that led us down this path. But there\u2019s apparently another step that is going to precede those.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">The crash landing starts with the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/09\/21\/business\/21qanda.html?th&amp;emc=th\" target=\"_blank\">$700 billion bailout plan<\/a> being negotiated by the Bush Administration and congressional leaders. Regardless of my mixed feelings about bailing out banks, Congress appears poised to do this in the coming days. Under the plan, the federal government (you and me) will apparently be buying up mortgages that are dragging on the financial well being of banks. I saw one analyst on television characterizing it as purging banks of toxic debt.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">That\u2019s an interesting analogy, because it accurately characterizes the situation: We, the American people, will be swallowing the banks\u2019 toxic debt for them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">Raising taxes, cutting spending<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">But the debt will still exist, so if we\u2019re going to head down this path, we have to come up with a way to pay for it. We can do that by printing more money or by raising taxes. Printing more money isn\u2019t really an option. It would lead to extreme inflation, perhaps even <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hyperinflation\" target=\"_blank\">hyperinflation<\/a>, and would be disastrous.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">So we\u2019ll have to raise taxes. Get ready for it. This bailout plan isn\u2019t really leaving the next president much choice in the matter, regardless of what the candidates say.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">There\u2019s more we\u2019re going to have to do to get out of this mess. <st1:country-region st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">America<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>\u2019s debt is toxic at every level. We need to spend years purging it. Individuals need to reduce their credit card, mortgage and other debt. Local and state governments need to slow new construction projects and focus on paying back the bonds for existing and old construction projects. The federal government needs to pay for the bailout, balance its budget and begin paying down the rest of the federal debt, which is currently about $9.7 trillion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">To do that, we\u2019re going to have to tighten our belts &#8212; individuals, local and state governments and the federal government. In addition to raising taxes, the next president is going to have to make painful cuts to the federal budget. Many local and state governments will also have to make cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">That\u2019s going to make for some rough times. Unemployment will likely increase before it begins dropping again. The economy will stagnate. Times are going to get more difficult before they get better.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">But it\u2019s clear we can\u2019t just spend our way out of this mess. We tried that earlier this year with a tax rebate that did little or nothing to stimulate the economy and was followed by the current crisis. Few <st1:state st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> politicians, including the president and the two presidential candidates, are admitting that the bailout plan will necessitate a tax increase and budget cuts. But to work, that\u2019s what I believe this plan is going to require.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: bold;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size:130%;\">Washington and Wall Street have led us to the brink<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">I\u2019m admittedly not an economist. I\u2019m no financial expert. But when I wrote about the economy <a href=\"http:\/\/haussamen.blogspot.com\/2008\/03\/america-cant-continue-to-spend-beyond.html\">back in March<\/a>, I held back and intentionally didn\u2019t reveal the extent of my concern because the so-called experts were saying the situation wasn\u2019t grim. In fact, U.S. Rep. <a href=\"http:\/\/wilson.house.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">Heather Wilson<\/a>, one of the more intelligent members of Congress, told me on the day that column was published that there was some reason to be concerned, but that media hype was blowing the situation out of proportion. She said there would be an \u201ceconomic slowdown,\u201d but that it should be \u201cshort and shallow.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">The point is that most in <st1:state st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and on Wall Street didn\u2019t see this coming. Now they\u2019ve created a huge mess. Democrats may blame Republicans, and Republicans may blame Democrats, but the reality is that <st1:state st=\"on\">Washington<\/st1:state>, in a very bipartisan way, has failed to stop Wall Street from taking us down a path that threatens the stability and security of the <st1:country-region st=\"on\"><st1:place st=\"on\">United States<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>. Our politicians and our corporations have led this nation to the brink.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><a href=\"http:\/\/dodd.senate.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">Chris Dodd<\/a>, D-Conn. and chairman of the Senate banking committee, admitted as much after a Thursday meet at which he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/09\/20\/washington\/19cnd-cong.html?_r=2&amp;hp=&amp;adxnnl=1&amp;oref=slogin&amp;pagewanted=print&amp;adxnnlx=1221858741-Kkwtcg9cvsKPB4HbD2YHHw&amp;oref=slogin\" target=\"_blank\">said those leaders were told<\/a> by the top financial people in government \u201cthat we\u2019re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><o:p> <\/o:p><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">We\u2019re crashing. Can we figure out a way to land safely? Time will tell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent conversation, my dad summed up the current financial crisis better than I could have: We\u2019re trying to figure out how to engineer a controlled crash landing instead of allowing an all-out nosedive into the ground. I believe he\u2019s right. The situation is that serious. Democrats and Republicans alike, in their words and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-haussamen-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}