{"id":37090,"date":"2012-02-23T11:37:46","date_gmt":"2012-02-23T18:37:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=37090"},"modified":"2012-02-24T08:02:01","modified_gmt":"2012-02-24T15:02:01","slug":"arnold-jones-claims-shell-easily-win-preprimary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2012\/02\/arnold-jones-claims-shell-easily-win-preprimary\/","title":{"rendered":"Arnold-Jones claims she\u2019ll easily win preprimary"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Janice<\/a>

Janice Arnold-Jones (Photo by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n

A big preprimary win by Janice Arnold-Jones might change the dynamics in the Republican 1st Congressional District primary, but her opponents both balk at the idea that she has such a high level of support.<\/h4>\n

Republican 1st Congressional District candidate Janice Arnold-Jones<\/a> sent out an eye-popping news release earlier this week claiming she is \u201cpoised to take well over 50% of the delegates\u201d at the preprimary nominating convention in March.<\/p>\n

The preprimary is the preferred method of qualifying for the primary ballot. Succeeding there is also considered a sign of organizational strength and can be a big boost. Candidates do well at the state preprimary by working at a grassroots level to get their delegates elected at county preprimaries and sent to the state meeting.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no secret that Arnold-Jones, a former state representative from Albuquerque and a champion of open government, has an active following. Her news release stated that her supporters \u201ccame out in force\u201d at the county-level meetings in the five counties that are in the 1st Congressional District.<\/p>\n

But the claim was eye-popping because Arnold-Jones is a candidate the GOP establishment usually doesn\u2019t take seriously, and because she significantly trails both of her primary opponents, Dan Lewis<\/a> and Gary Smith<\/a>, in cash on hand.<\/p>\n

Arnold-Jones said she\u2019s confident in her claim. She told NMPolitics.net her actual expected support at the preprimary is better than what she predicted in her news release, \u201cbut I\u2019d rather be conservative.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the grassroots of campaigning, and this is very personal,\u201d she said in explaining how she won the support she expects to have. \u201cPeople are very concerned about what is going to happen with this district, and that, first and foremost, we have someone who can stand toe to toe with the Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Opponents balk at claim<\/h3>\n

Lewis balked at the idea that Arnold-Jones has such a high level of support among delegates to the state preprimary, which will be held March 17.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo one outside her campaign believes she has anywhere close to 50 percent,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s incredibly premature, at best, for the campaign to essentially announce they\u2019ve won the preprimary when the election is a month away.\u201d<\/p>\n

Smith agreed, calling Arnold-Jones\u2019 claim \u201cpremature and rash to say the least.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI am confident that over the next few weeks, the delegates will make the right choice in nominating a conservative who can differentiate themselves from the Democrats and build a coalition to win in November,\u201d he said in a prepared statement.<\/p>\n

Even if it\u2019s true that Arnold-Jones convinced county parties to send many of her supporters to the state preprimary convention, that doesn\u2019t ensure those people will vote for Arnold-Jones at that meeting. The other candidates have weeks to try to peel away her support.<\/p>\n

I asked on Facebook<\/a> what people thought about Arnold-Jones\u2019 claim. Former State Rep. Dan Foley sounded skeptical.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn a preprimary convention it is the party insiders and hard-core Republicans that show up,\u201d he said. \u201cI am not sure if she has that many, but she may soon find out that what people tell you when asked is different than how they vote.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Dan<\/a>

Dan Lewis (Courtesy photo)<\/p><\/div>\n

NRCC focused on Lewis<\/h3>\n

Declaring yourself the preprimary winner before the event takes place is unusual, but not unheard of. And it can sometimes backfire.<\/p>\n

During the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary race, Pete Domenici Jr. sent a flier that arrived in mailboxes the same day the preprimary convention was held. The mailer screamed that the \u201c2010 Convention Was A Great Success!\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

But Domenici Jr. got only 4 percent of the vote at the contention \u2013 significantly less than the 20 percent that qualifies a candidate for the primary ballot. The gaffe got national attention in political circles and meant that Domenici Jr. had to gather lots of additional signatures to stay in the race.<\/p>\n

Arnold-Jones was also in that race and won the support of 13 percent of delegates<\/a> at the preprimary. Most of her support was in the Albuquerque area she is now seeking to represent in Congress. Like Domenici Jr., Arnold-Jones went on to lose badly to Susana Martinez in that primary.<\/p>\n

Two years earlier, Arnold-Jones considered running for the 1st District seat in Congress but abandoned the idea<\/a> after failing to meet a self-imposed target of raising $200,000 by a certain date.<\/p>\n

Those are among the reasons the GOP establishment has tended to not take Arnold-Jones seriously. Lewis is clearly the favorite of the Washington Republican infrastructure. The fundraising arm of Republicans in the U.S. House, the National Republican Congressional Committee<\/a>, recently labeled him \u201con the radar\u201d and a participant in its \u201cYoung Guns\u201d program that attempts to elect new Republicans to Congress.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are looking forward to working with Dan Lewis, who has already proven himself by meeting rigorous benchmarks in the \u2018Young Guns\u2019 program that will position his campaign for victory,\u201d NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions<\/a>, R-Texas, said in a news release.<\/p>\n

\u201cDan Lewis\u2019 dedication and experience enables him to advocate effectively for pro-growth policies and fight the failed status quo in Washington,\u201d Sessions said. \u201cThis will stand in stark contrast to the Obama-Pelosi record of spending, borrowing and taxing that New Mexico families and small businesses know has failed.\u201d<\/p>\n

One important reason for the NRCC support: Lewis leads the way in fundraising. As of Dec. 31, he had $102,000 on hand<\/a> to Smith\u2019s $89,000<\/a> and Arnold-Jones\u2019 $20,000<\/a>. Smith\u2019s campaign has thus far been self-financed.<\/p>\n

Would an Arnold-Jones preprimary win change the race?<\/h3>\n
\"Gary<\/a>

Gary Smith (Courtesy photo)<\/p><\/div>\n

Would a preprimary win by Arnold-Jones change the race? She thinks so.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt gives you an instant bump, not only in fundraising, but in credibility. It gives great veracity to the campaign,\u201d said Arnold-Jones, who watched that very thing happen in 2010 for Martinez, who went on to win the gubernatorial race.<\/p>\n

A preprimary win by Arnold-Jones could provide energy for her campaign and the race, in part because many Republicans are currently so unenthusiastic about their primary. Many were hoping Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela would run, but he declined<\/a>. Meanwhile, Democrats are engaged in a spirited and unpredictable three-way primary that has their activists energized.<\/p>\n

Arnold-Jones said her preprimary success will come in part because she\u2019s worked hard to convince establishment Republicans that she\u2019s the best candidate to compete against a Democrat in November.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith diligence, that is happening,\u201d she said. \u201cI don\u2019t think they believe any of the other people in the race are necessarily their darlings either, but I have worked hard to get their support and I believe I have it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brian Bosh of Albuquerque said on Facebook that the GOP establishment will have to take Arnold-Jones seriously if she wins the preprimary.<\/p>\n

\u201cMight not be wise to declare premature victory, but Lewis represents a very different set of beliefs than her, and Smith\u2019s campaign seems pretty quiet,\u201d Bosh said. \u201cThe establishment means less than the mood of the people. So if it\u2019s really a choice of two, and she wins, yes, they\u2019ll have to take her seriously.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lewis isn\u2019t predicting that he\u2019ll win the preprimary, but he still thinks Arnold-Jones is wrong.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re the campaign that has outraised every other candidate at least 4-1. We have more cash 5-1, more contributors, national attention from the NRCC,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2026 We take nothing for granted. We\u2019re working hard and focused on a campaign that\u2019s taking a conservative message to the voters. We have a campaign that\u2019s built on more than press releases.\u201d<\/p>\n

Smith said he is \u201cthe only candidate who doesn’t carry the baggage of a career politician.\u201d He said he\u2019s the Republican voters will be able to differentiate from the Democrats\u2019 nominee.<\/p>\n

Of course, Arnold-Jones and Lewis also said they\u2019re more electable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A big preprimary win by Janice Arnold-Jones might change the dynamics in the Republican 1st Congressional District primary, but her opponents both balk at the idea that she has such a high level of support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[228,156,194,116],"class_list":["post-37090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-1st-congressional-district-race","tag-2012-election","tag-republican-party","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37090\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}