{"id":36273,"date":"2012-02-07T07:36:49","date_gmt":"2012-02-07T14:36:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=36273"},"modified":"2012-02-08T06:04:02","modified_gmt":"2012-02-08T13:04:02","slug":"the-gop-senate-primary-isn%e2%80%99t-over-%e2%80%93-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2012\/02\/the-gop-senate-primary-isn%e2%80%99t-over-%e2%80%93-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"The GOP Senate primary isn\u2019t over \u2013 yet"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_36282\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignright\" style=\"max-width: 270px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36282\" title=\"Wilson, Sowards\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/Wilson-Sowards.jpg\" alt=\"Heather Wilson and Greg Sowards\" width=\"270\" height=\"239\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Heather Wilson, left, and Greg Sowards<\/p><\/div>\n<h4>Heather Wilson has a half million dollars more than Greg Sowards and widespread support, but John Sanchez\u2019s departure from the Republican U.S. Senate primary creates a narrow window of opportunity for Sowards.<\/h4>\n<p>The anti-<a href=\"http:\/\/www.heatherwilson.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Heather Wilson<\/a> wing of the Republican Party cost her the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Wilson knows it, and she\u2019s worked hard this time around to build support she didn\u2019t have in 2008. That started the day she entered the 2012 race and announced the endorsement of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2011\/03\/wilson-formally-enters-u-s-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\">former U.S. Rep. Bill Redmond<\/a>, a leader among the state\u2019s social conservatives.<\/p>\n<p>Wilson has worked hard to win endorsements from across the GOP spectrum, with astonishing success. In January, N.M. House Minority Leader Tom Taylor of Farmington became the 20th state representative out of 33 Republicans <a href=\"http:\/\/heatherwilson.com\/2012\/01\/top-republican-state-house-leader-endorses-heather-wilson\/\" target=\"_blank\">to endorse Wilson<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>More importantly, on Friday, State Sen. Bill Sharer of Farmington <a href=\"http:\/\/heatherwilson.com\/2012\/02\/farmington-senator-bill-sharer-endorses-heather-wilson\/\" target=\"_blank\">joined the rest of his caucus<\/a> in endorsing her.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cCongresswoman Heather Wilson is the obvious choice for U.S. Senate,\u201d Sharer said. \u201cShe has the experience and will be a solid voice for the people of New Mexico. I am happy to offer my endorsement. Heather has the knowledge of the issues, statesmanship and the right positions on critical issues facing our nation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The endorsement from one of the most socially conservative members of the Legislature is especially significant because it came 14 hours after NMPolitics.net broke the news that Lt. Gov. John Sanchez plans to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2012\/02\/sanchez-plans-to-quit-u-s-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\">end his Senate campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the last holdouts \u2013 those hoping for a credible option other than Wilson \u2013 appear ready to join the likely winner\u2019s camp.<\/p>\n<h3>Sanchez\u2019s departure creates an opening<\/h3>\n<p>There was an opportunity early on for a candidate to consolidate anti-Wilson support, but while Sanchez and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gregsowards.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Greg Sowards<\/a> battled for that position, Wilson solidified and grew her base.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>She\u2019s been the obvious frontrunner all along and only grown stronger as time has passed, which is one of the reasons Sanchez\u2019s campaign never gained traction.<\/p>\n<p>But a two-person race between Wilson and Sowards could be interesting.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve watched Sowards, a Las Cruces businessman and inventor, since 2008, when he ran, unsuccessfully, for the 2nd Congressional District seat in the U.S. House.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve always thought Sowards is an intriguing candidate with potential. He\u2019s genuine, he\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/09\/mr-short-bald-and-honest-runs-for-county-position\/\" target=\"_blank\">quirky<\/a>, he has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/sowards-has-a-grand-vision-for-changing-america\/\" target=\"_blank\">unique ideas<\/a>, and he\u2019s a true believer. As the TEA Party has risen, Sowards has emerged with it as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2011\/03\/sowards-gets-prominent-mention-as-tea-party-candidate\/\" target=\"_blank\">a homegrown candidate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But Sowards has never been able to turn that potential into success. He received the support of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/sowards-explains-decision-to-stay-in-cd2-race\/\" target=\"_blank\">only 1 percent of delegates<\/a> at the preprimary convention in 2008. He went on to win 17 percent of the primary vote but lost the five-way race. He later lost a county commission race.<\/p>\n<p>Now he\u2019s the only anti-Wilson candidate in the Senate race. He has more than $600,000 to spend, if he chooses. And, in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2011\/12\/what-primary-wilson-still-dominates-gop-senate-race\/\" target=\"_blank\">the last poll of the race<\/a>, 39 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided or pledged support for a candidate who is no longer in the race.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, Sanchez\u2019s departure from the race creates an opening for Sowards. But the window is narrow. Sowards has to strike now.<\/p>\n<p>Because Wilson is moving quickly. Sharer\u2019s endorsement shows that.<\/p>\n<h3>Sowards gets aggressive<\/h3>\n<p>I don\u2019t know whether Sowards can become a serious challenger to Wilson. He has almost entirely self-financed his campaign, so he hasn\u2019t demonstrated that he has a base of support.<\/p>\n<p>But he\u2019s trying. Sowards has become much more aggressive in recent weeks, portraying himself as a conservative outsider and Wilson as a Washington insider with a not-so-conservative record. He appears to realize the urgency of the situation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHeather was unelectable in 2008. Nothing has changed on that score. She is a flawed candidate. Her vote for the TARP bailout has doomed her chances for victory in November,\u201d Sowards said last week in <a href=\"http:\/\/sowardsforsenate.com\/2012\/02\/01\/sowards-has-636000-in-his-2012-war-chest\/\" target=\"_blank\">a news release<\/a>. \u201cVoters in the primary are starting to realize that and want a candidate without the baggage Wilson has.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He also attacked Wilson at a recent GOP event in San Miguel County. Check out this video, provided by the Democratic Party of New Mexico:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XxIqi8CVxGs\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>Wilson is in an enviable position<\/h3>\n<p>I\u2019m no fan of negative campaigning, but candidates sometimes use it because they believe it\u2019s the only path to victory. The last poll had Wilson above 50 percent. Sowards won\u2019t win without pulling support away from her.<\/p>\n<p>And he has to do it now. If he doesn\u2019t display an impressive level of support at next month\u2019s preprimary convention, the race will be over.<\/p>\n<p>Sowards isn\u2019t likely to succeed. Wilson has half a million dollars more than Sowards, she has demonstrated widespread support by raising all of her cash from outside sources, and she has <a href=\"http:\/\/heatherwilson.com\/2012\/02\/farmington-senator-bill-sharer-endorses-heather-wilson\/\" target=\"_blank\">a long, long, long list of endorsements<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But Sanchez\u2019s departure from the race creates an opening for Sowards. If he wants to seriously pursue his long-shot chance of beating Wilson, he has to start spending that $600,000 now. He has to win over preprimary delegates. He has to build a base of support and convince primary voters that he can be a credible general-election candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Wilson remains in an enviable position. But it\u2019s not quite time to call the race.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/haussamen\" target=\"_blank\">Haussamen bio<\/a>\u00a0\u2502\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/category\/haussamen-columns\" target=\"_blank\">Commentary archives<\/a>\u00a0\u2502\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/category\/haussamen-columns\/feed\" target=\"_blank\">Feed<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heather Wilson has a half million dollars more than Greg Sowards and widespread support, but John Sanchez\u2019s departure from the Republican U.S. Senate primary creates a narrow window of opportunity for Sowards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[156,227,116],"class_list":["post-36273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-2012-election","tag-u-s-senate-race","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36273\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}