{"id":3461,"date":"2008-07-16T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2008-07-16T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/07\/n-m-gop-needs-to-prepare-for-2010-redistricting\/"},"modified":"2009-08-22T14:47:01","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T20:47:01","slug":"n-m-gop-needs-to-prepare-for-2010-redistricting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/07\/n-m-gop-needs-to-prepare-for-2010-redistricting\/","title":{"rendered":"N.M. GOP needs to prepare for 2010, redistricting"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Many Republicans are already beginning to think past 2008 — a year that could be dismal for them — to 2010 and a chance to regain power in Washington<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> by winning greater influence in the next decade\u2019s redistricting process.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, there\u2019s another reason Republicans should be thinking about 2010 and redistricting. If they don\u2019t win the gubernatorial race or greater influence in the state House, Democrats will likely grab even greater control of state government through redistricting.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

According to the Huffington Post\u2019s Sam Stein<\/a>, focusing on 2010 and redistricting is the GOP\u2019s contingency plan for what many expect will be a further loss of influence in Congress this year. Many believe the party\u2019s best chance at retaking Congress may come by first winning back a majority of governorships in 2010, because redistricting takes place at the state level.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Democrats currently hold 28 of 50 governorships.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThe 2010 elections are almost as important or equally important as the elections this year,\u201d Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, told the Huffington Post. \u201cWe could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The GOP currently holds three of five seats in Congress from New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, but it\u2019s likely to lose ground this year. Because of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici\u2019s<\/a> retirement, the GOP has to defend all three seats without incumbents. In a Democratic year, it\u2019s likely the GOP will lose at least one of those seats and it\u2019s possible, albeit unlikely, that it could lose them all.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The GOP has been able to hold two U.S. House seats in New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> for years despite the fact that a majority of registered voters in both districts are Democrats. If it loses one or both seats, the GOP might want to push for a redistricting deal that would create a Republican majority in one district.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But it\u2019s at the state level that the GOP should be most concerned. Democrats have largely controlled state government for decades. The fear among many Republicans is that, if the GOP doesn\u2019t have a stronger voice in redistricting, Democrats will do what the GOP did in Texas several years ago<\/a> and further redistrict the minority party out of the state.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Attempt in 2006 failed<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The GOP\u2019s attempt in 2006 to begin making gains in advance of redistricting in the next decade fell flat.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That year, the GOP poured lots of money into targeted state House races to try to begin the long climb toward greater influence. New Mexico<\/st1:state> is a swing state that has drawn national attention in recent years, and in 2006 the state GOP received a lot of help from Bob Perry, the Texas<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> homebuilder who funded the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth\u2019s<\/a> 2004 campaign against Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Perry, who had also given almost $240,000 to the 2002 gubernatorial campaign of Republican John Sanchez, pumped $160,000 into the campaigns of the GOP nominees for several statewide races in New Mexico in 2006. He also gave $70,000 to the state party and $20,000 to a Republican state House candidate from Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It didn\u2019t work: Republicans needed to gain three seats in the state House to have greater influence in the legislative process. They took three from Democrats, but lost three others and gained nothing.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

They also didn\u2019t pick up any additional statewide offices, despite Perry\u2019s help. The only victory Republicans could claim was that they held off the wave that led to Democratic gains across the nation.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Every state legislative seat is up for grabs this year, and Republicans will again try to make gains, but there\u2019s still a Democratic wave, and progressive Democrats, not Republicans, have momentum from surprising victories in recent elections in Albuquerque<\/st1:city> and Las Cruces<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

On to 2010<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So the GOP is likely going to have to make a stand in 2010 by attempting to win the gubernatorial race or making significant gains in the state House. The GOP\u2019s chances at winning the gubernatorial race aren\u2019t yet clear. There isn\u2019t an obvious GOP candidate.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson<\/a>, who just lost the U.S. Senate primary, is mentioned as one possibility. So are U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce<\/a> if he loses this year\u2019s Senate race and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White<\/a> if he loses his congressional race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Another potential candidate is the only statewide Republican official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons<\/a>. He can\u2019t seek re-election in 2010 because of term limits but has already been raising money for an unspecified race; however, he\u2019s embroiled in a scandal over his ties to a Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> developer and controversial land deals.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

One politico who is sometimes mentioned as a dark-horse candidate is Do\u00f1a Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez<\/a>, a Hispanic Republican who has won re-election enough times in a Democratic county that the Dems didn\u2019t even bother to run a candidate against her this year.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish<\/a> has been running her own 2010 gubernatorial campaign for some time and should have a huge fundraising advantage over the GOP candidate, assuming she doesn\u2019t face a credible primary challenge. And there\u2019s a possibility that Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a> will take a Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> job next year and Denish will become governor, giving her the advantage of incumbency in 2010.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But first\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Before it can truly begin to focus on 2010, however, the GOP has to defend one U.S. Senate seat and two U.S. House seats this year without incumbents and try to at least hold the line against the Democratic wave at the state level.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Perry has again chipped in by giving $125,000 to the state GOP<\/a> last month. Will it help? Time will tell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many Republicans are already beginning to think past 2008 — a year that could be dismal for them — to 2010 and a chance to regain power in Washington by winning greater influence in the next decade\u2019s redistricting process. In New Mexico, there\u2019s another reason Republicans should be thinking about 2010 and redistricting. If they […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-haussamen-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3461\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}