{"id":34496,"date":"2011-12-16T08:16:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-16T15:16:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=34496"},"modified":"2011-12-19T07:55:21","modified_gmt":"2011-12-19T14:55:21","slug":"poll-shows-heinrich-leading-wilson-sparks-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2011\/12\/poll-shows-heinrich-leading-wilson-sparks-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll shows Heinrich leading Wilson, sparks debate"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

The U.S. Capitol building (Photo by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n

A poll released Thursday has Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson in a potential U.S. Senate match-up and Democrat Hector Balderas tied with Wilson, but there\u2019s a debate about the survey\u2019s integrity<\/h4>\n

A new poll released Thursday has Democrat Martin Heinrich<\/a> leading Republican Heather Wilson<\/a> by 7 percentage points in a potential U.S. Senate match-up and Democrat Hector Balderas<\/a> tied with Wilson.<\/p>\n

But Republicans immediately attacked the survey, which came from the left-leaning group Public Policy Polling<\/a> (PPP), and started a public debate on Twitter and elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The poll found Heinrich leading Wilson 47 percent to 40 percent, down two points from when she trailed Heinrich by 5 points in June<\/a>. Wilson and Balderas were tied at 43 percent, which is a six-point gain for Wilson from June.<\/p>\n

Other Republicans in the race trailed both Heinrich and Balderas by more than 10 points.<\/p>\n

The survey of 500 New Mexico voters, \u201cincluding 309 usual Democratic primary voters,\u201d was conducted between Saturday and Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats continue to have a modest advantage in the New Mexico Senate contest,\u201d Dean Debnam, PPP president, said in the poll memo. \u201cBut it looks unlikely they\u2019ll have the kind of cakewalk race they did in 2008 when Tom Udall was overwhelmingly elected to replace Pete Domenici.\u201d<\/p>\n

You can read about the poll here<\/a> and find the polling memo here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

GOP attacks<\/h3>\n

The Republican Party of New Mexico quickly issued a news release<\/a> with this headline: \u201cCaution: Liberal Group Releasing Juiced Poll Numbers In State.\u201d Republicans pointed out that the survey included more Democrats (52 percent) and fewer Republicans (29 percent) than are registered to vote in New Mexico (49 and 32 percent, respectively). And Republicans usually make up an even greater percentage of voters on Election Day (37 percent in 2010 and 34 percent in 2008).<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no explanation for reducing the GOP in the survey, except that this is a shameless attempt to cook the books for the Democrats,\u201d Republican Party of New Mexico Executive Director Bryan Watkins said in the release.<\/p>\n

The 2008 and 2010 turnout numbers were tweeted<\/a> by Brian Walsh, head of the Republican National Senatorial Committee. Glen Bolger of the right-leaning Public Opinion Strategies<\/a>, which is Wilson\u2019s polling firm, tweeted this<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cSorry\u00a0#Public\u00a0Policy Polling, your NM sample is 6 pts too Dem. Reweighted to current reg the race is a toss-up: 45% Heinrich\/42% Wilson.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And Wilson made this assertion on Facebook<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cPPP Poll out today assumes only 29% of the people who will vote will be Republicans and 52% Democrat \u2013 a 23% Dem advantage. That\u2019s off by 6-10% from historical reality. They should just own up to it and fix their math. Split the difference between 2010 and 2008 turnout? Yhis (sic) is a 44-44 race.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

PPP defends its polling<\/h3>\n

My former New Mexico Independent colleague Matt Reichbach<\/a> and I got into a discussion on Twitter with PPP about the survey. And I questioned PPP\u2019s Tom Jensen by e-mail bout the GOP claims.<\/p>\n

Jensen pointed out that PPP\u2019s last 2010 poll<\/a> \u201ccame without on point\u201d of Gov. Susana Martinez\u2019s margin of victory, and that its final poll<\/a> on the 2008 election in New Mexico \u201cwas the most accurate in the state that year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a reason the Republican release doesn\u2019t make any reference to our past polling in New Mexico: because it\u2019s been right on the mark and unbiased,\u201d Jensen told me.<\/p>\n

As for the weighting (35 percent of those surveyed in that \u201cmost accurate\u201d 2008 poll were Republicans, which was close to actual turnout), Jensen said this:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026we had fewer Republicans on today\u2019s poll than the 2008 poll, but we also had a sample of independents that was much more Republican leaning than 2008, as shown by Wilson winning those voters. Party ID shifts over time and people who may have identified as Republican in 2008 are now identifying as independent, but still voting Republican. That\u2019s a product of the Tea Party movement \u2013 folks might not want to call themselves Republicans anymore but they\u2019re still supporting GOP candidates under a different label.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He also took this parting shot:<\/p>\n

\u201cOne other thing: Wilson\u2019s polling company, Public Opinion Strategies, released a memo in early October blasting our polling on Ohio Issue 2<\/a>, the collective bargaining amendment the state voted on last month. Our polling showed it failing by more than 20 points and it ended up failing by more than 20 points just like we said.\u00a0The link to the statement is here but as you can see it\u2019s been conveniently scrubbed from the internet:<\/p>\n

\u201chttp:\/\/www.betterohio.org\/news\/2011\/10\/statement-regarding-public-policy-polling-survey<\/a>\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2018Dem cheerleaders\u2019 or \u2018pretty darn accurate?\u2019<\/h3>\n

PPP tweeted<\/a> that it was \u201chonored that the good folks at the New Mexico Republican Party spent so much time googling PPP this week\u201d and that, if the GOP had more favorable internal polling numbers, \u201cthey would\u2019ve had them ready to release.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

Walsh\u2019s response<\/a>: \u201cHonored? Some might think you\u2019d be embarrased (sic) to have your misleading poll sample exposed like that. It\u2019s off and you know it too.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Walsh suggested that<\/a>, while PPP releases accurate polls right before elections, as it did in 2008 and 2010, at this stage in the game it\u2019s doing something different.<\/p>\n

\u201coh you guys may try to get it right just before the election but a year out you\u2019re Dem cheerleaders. NM sample says it all,\u201d Walsh tweeted.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot a secret to anyone that we\u2019re Democrats, not a secret to anyone (even you) that we\u2019re pretty darn accurate. God Bless,\u201d was PPP\u2019s response<\/a>.<\/p>\n

About the new poll<\/h3>\n

On to the poll. First off, in a survey of the 309 Democratic primary voters, Heinrich led Balderas 47 percent to 30 percent. That\u2019s an improvement for Balderas from the last time<\/a> PPP polled and Heinrich led 47-24. It\u2019s noteworthy that Heinrich didn\u2019t move any closer to 50 percent while Balderas gained.<\/p>\n

I wrote about the PPP GOP primary survey on Thursday<\/a>. It essentially showed Wilson dominating and no other candidate gaining ground.<\/p>\n

As for the general election poll released Thursday (Heinrich leading Wilson 47-40 and Wilson and Balderas tied at 43), it\u2019s noteworthy that while Wilson slipped two points against Heinrich from the last PPP poll in June<\/a>, she gained against Balderas. He led her by six points in June.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s more on the poll from PPP\u2019s memo:<\/p>\n

\u201cWilson does as well as she does because she earns 17% of the Democratic vote versus Heinrich and 20% versus Balderas.\u00a0 She has also turned a nine-point deficit versus Balderas and twelve points against Heinrich with independents into leads of 20 and six, and she has locked up more of the Republican vote. But independents are only 19% of voters, and Republicans 29%, versus Democrats\u2019 52%. Heinrich\u2019s own improvement with Democrats more than makes up for his decline with Republicans and independents. The only area where Balderas outdoes Heinrich is with Republicans (10% versus 6%).\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBalderas has moved from 24% to 30% in the primary since June, but Heinrich is holding steady at 47%.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The bottom line<\/h3>\n

Eleven months before the general election, the bottom line is the same regardless of whether the PPP poll is accurate or the Republicans\u2019 criticism is correct: Wilson is dominating her primary race. At this point, no other Republican candidate has shown positive movement. Heinrich has a strong lead in his race, but Balderas has gained some ground and can\u2019t be ignored.<\/p>\n

Wilson, Heinrich and Balderas are all solid candidates. In New Mexico, general election races between solid candidates are usually close. There\u2019s reason to believe any of the three has a shot at winning the race, though Wilson and Heinrich have better shots than Balderas. It\u2019s no surprise to see polls showing tight contests between Wilson and the two Democrats.<\/p>\n

Whether Wilson and Heinrich are currently separated by seven points or none, the reality is that it\u2019s close. Eleven months out, anything can happen.<\/p>\n

This is probably going to be quite a race.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

A scene from Thursday\u2019s Twitter debate about the integrity of the Public Policy Polling survey. The highlights are mine.<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A poll released Thursday has Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson in a potential U.S. Senate match-up and Democrat Hector Balderas tied with Wilson, but there\u2019s debate about the survey\u2019s integrity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[156,240,227,116],"class_list":["post-34496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-2012-election","tag-polling","tag-u-s-senate-race","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34496\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}