{"id":3326,"date":"2008-06-03T00:29:00","date_gmt":"2008-06-03T06:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/06\/poll-its-a-photo-finish-in-gop-u-s-senate-primary\/"},"modified":"2008-06-03T00:29:00","modified_gmt":"2008-06-03T06:29:00","slug":"poll-its-a-photo-finish-in-gop-u-s-senate-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/06\/poll-its-a-photo-finish-in-gop-u-s-senate-primary\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll: It’s a ‘photo finish’ in GOP U.S. Senate primary"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>A new poll of the Republican U.S. Senate primary finds a statistical tie between Steve Pearce<\/a> and Heather Wilson<\/a> as voters head to the polls today. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The SurveyUSA poll<\/a>, conducted Friday through Sunday, has Pearce at 48 percent and Wilson at 47 percent. It surveyed 498 likely and actual Republican voters and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The bottom line: The race will come down to turnout.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cRegional turnout will decide the contest,\u201d the SurveyUSA polling memo states. \u201cIf Bernalillo<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place> votes in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Pearce wins. If Bernalillo<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype> votes in larger numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> wins.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>The poll results aren\u2019t much different than those from another SurveyUSA poll<\/a> conducted a little more than two weeks ago that had Pearce leading by three points. In the interim, an Albuquerque Journal poll<\/a> released Sunday and conducted Tuesday through Thursday of last week had Pearce leading by six points.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

According to the newest poll, 28 percent of Republicans voted early and absentee, and Wilson had a one-point lead among those voters. Pearce led by three points among those who said they will vote today.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Wilson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> campaign spun the new poll to claim momentum going into Election Day. In a news release<\/a>, it said the Journal poll was \u201ctaken prior to two televised debates and a public announcement by Senator (Pete) Domenici<\/a> that he is supporting Heather Wilson.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIn the last seven days we\u2019ve had two very successful debates and received the unexpected endorsement from Senator Domenici,\u201d Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> said in the release. \u201cUndecided and lean-Pearce voters are making up their minds in these final days and I\u2019m honored to have their support. Momentum is on our side and we are very encouraged that this will continue through Election Day.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> campaign has been milking the Domenici endorsement for all it\u2019s worth, using him in a robocall and releasing an almost constant stream of news releases related to his endorsement since he made it on Friday.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s very possible the Domenici endorsement has had an effect here on voters who are undecided in this primary contest,\u201d UNM professor and political analyst Tim Krebs told KOB-TV in Albuquerque<\/a>, the station for whom both SurveyUSA polls were conducted.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Voter turnout for Republicans was higher around the state this year than it was in 2002, the last time there was a hotly contested statewide Republican primary. In fact, in Bernalillo, Do\u00f1a Ana, Sandoval and Santa Fe<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> counties, early voting turnout was roughly double what it was in 2002.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

One other interesting point in the new SurveyUSA poll, which predicts a \u201cphoto finish\u201d in the GOP Senate primary: The gender gap has been erased. In the previous poll, Pearce led by 11 points among men and Wilson led by five points among women. In the new poll, the candidates are \u201cessentially tied in both groups.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The polling memo doesn\u2019t explain why that happened.<\/o:p><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll of the Republican U.S. Senate primary finds a statistical tie between Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson as voters head to the polls today. The SurveyUSA poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, has Pearce at 48 percent and Wilson at 47 percent. It surveyed 498 likely and actual Republican voters and has a margin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3326"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3326\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}