{"id":3286,"date":"2008-05-27T16:03:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-27T22:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/05\/to-win-n-m-obama-needs-to-come-back-to-cruces\/"},"modified":"2008-05-27T16:03:00","modified_gmt":"2008-05-27T22:03:00","slug":"to-win-n-m-obama-needs-to-come-back-to-cruces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/05\/to-win-n-m-obama-needs-to-come-back-to-cruces\/","title":{"rendered":"To win N.M., Obama needs to come back to Cruces"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Because it was closed to the public, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama\u2019s<\/a> Memorial Day visit to Las Cruces<\/a> did little to help him win over southern New Mexico Democrats who will take a hard look at Republican presidential candidate John McCain<\/a> before deciding how to vote in November. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If Obama wants to win New Mexico<\/st1:state> \u2013 one of the most important swing states in the 2008 presidential election \u2013 he\u2019ll have to return to the Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> area at least once to hold a public rally and give voters a chance to see him in person.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Hillary Clinton<\/a> won New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>\u2019s Democratic presidential caucus in February, but it\u2019s the reason she won that\u2019s important to the November contest between Obama and McCain. Obama narrowly won northern New Mexico<\/st1:state>\u2019s 3rd Congressional District and the Albuquerque-area 1st Congressional District, but Clinton<\/st1:city> easily won the more conservative 2nd Congressional District in southern New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> by several thousand votes, which propelled her to a statewide victory of 1,709 votes out of about 150,000 cast.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename> \u2013 the most populous county in the 2nd District and a Democratic stronghold \u2013 Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> easily won by about 1,200 votes out of almost 9,500 cast.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The majority of the 200,000 residents of Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> are Democrats, but they\u2019re also conservative. Many are Hispanic and veterans \u2013 both populations Obama has had difficulty courting. Unless Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is Obama\u2019s running mate in November, many may be inclined to take a serious look at McCain before deciding whether to vote for Obama.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

With that reality as the backdrop, Obama upset many with the way Monday\u2019s visit was handled. Southern New Mexico<\/st1:place> is used to one visit, at most, from presidential candidates. So when the Obama campaign announced late last week that Monday\u2019s visit would be open to the public, people cancelled their Memorial Day plans. They waited for details about the venue and how to get tickets.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And they learned mid-way through the weekend, when they saw the news on TV on Saturday evening or read the newspapers on Sunday, that the Obama campaign would instead hold a closed, invitation-only event. A candidate many rural voters view as elitist \u2013 fair or not \u2013 was finally coming to their town but, instead of speaking to them, he would be hanging out with his pal, Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a>, and a small group of veterans rounded up primarily by Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s people.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, McCain was in Albuquerque<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> holding a public rally.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Closing the event wasn\u2019t necessarily a mistake. The small, picturesque meeting with veterans was touching on a day designed to remember those who have died fighting for America<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>\u2019s freedom. But announcing the event as public, then later closing it, was certainly a bad move.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Polls reveal Obama\u2019s challenge in N.M.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The situation Obama faces in Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename> is true in much of rural New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>. There are many rural, Hispanic Democratic counties in the 3rd District that also went for Clinton<\/st1:city> on Feb. 5, but Obama\u2019s huge win in Santa Fe<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> offset those losses. In the newest SurveyUSA poll<\/a>, which had Obama and McCain tied at 44 percent apiece in the Land of Enchantment, Obama had a five-point advantage in the state\u2019s urban center, Bernalillo County, but trailed by two points in the rest of the state, which is primarily rural.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The survey of 600 registered voters, conducted May 16-19, had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The newest poll from Rasmussen Reports<\/a> is even more telling. That poll, released May 17, had Obama leading McCain 50 percent to 41 percent in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted May 14 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

While the poll found that Obama had picked up some new Democratic support because of the perception that the Democratic presidential primary is over and he\u2019s the winner, 21 percent of New Mexico Democrats said they plan to vote for McCain \u2013 a number that has remained constant in the Rasmussen Reports polls even as Obama has moved from a Democratic contender to the likely nominee.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Gore narrowly won New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> in 2000. Bush narrowly won it in 2004. Pundits have figured out that New Mexico<\/st1:state>, Colorado<\/st1:state> and Nevada<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, taken together, make up a hotly contested region with a significant number of electoral votes that can be won by either party. The three Western states are arguably as important as Florida<\/st1:state> or Ohio<\/st1:state>, and the fact that Obama and McCain both chose to spend Memorial Day in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> speaks to its prominence in the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Obama made clear, during his visit to Las Cruces<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>, that he is going after voters in those Western states<\/a>. McCain is doing the same. New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, as a conservative Democratic state whose voters aren\u2019t quite on board with the politics of Obama or McCain, will be won by the candidate who spends the most time meeting with voters on their turf. Albuquerque<\/st1:city> will be a battleground, but to win New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>, the successful candidate will also have to spend significant time in the south.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Because it was closed to the public, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama\u2019s Memorial Day visit to Las Cruces did little to help him win over southern New Mexico Democrats who will take a hard look at Republican presidential candidate John McCain before deciding how to vote in November. If Obama wants to win New Mexico […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3286\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}