{"id":3237,"date":"2008-05-16T12:18:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-16T18:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/05\/how-will-the-democratic-wave-affect-n-m-races\/"},"modified":"2008-05-16T12:18:00","modified_gmt":"2008-05-16T18:18:00","slug":"how-will-the-democratic-wave-affect-n-m-races","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/05\/how-will-the-democratic-wave-affect-n-m-races\/","title":{"rendered":"How will the Democratic wave affect N.M. races?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Democrat Travis Childers\u2019<\/a> Tuesday victory in a special election in a conservative Mississippi U.S. House district has Washington Republicans reeling and pundits considering the possibility that other GOP seats \u2013 even New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s right-leaning 2nd Congressional District \u2013 are more vulnerable than previously thought.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It was the third time this year that a Democrat won a special election for a U.S. House seat in a district that historically favors Republicans. The others were in Illinois<\/st1:state> and Louisiana<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. U.S. Rep. Tom Davis<\/a>, R-Va., wrote in a memo to colleagues that the losses are \u201ccanaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the current climate.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThe political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it was in 2006,\u201d Davis<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> wrote, according to the New York Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

House Republicans lost 30 seats, and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another 15, in 2006. An article in The Politico<\/a> highlights the thinking among some Republicans that they could easily lose another 20 seats in the House this year to the Democratic wave that is sweeping the nation. Davis<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, in his memo, said President Bush<\/a> is a problem for Republicans.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Two New Mexico House seats \u2013 the south\u2019s 2nd District and the Albuquerque-area 1st District \u2013 are currently held by Republicans but are being defended by the GOP without the benefit of incumbency this year. The same is true of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s open Senate seat.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Jon Blair, spokesman for the campaign of Democratic 1st District candidate Martin Heinrich<\/a>, said the Democratic victories in the House races \u201cshow that the American people are tired of the failed policies of George Bush and Dick Cheney<\/a>.\u201d He pointed out that the frontrunner for the Republican 1st District nomination, Darren White<\/a>, was Bush\u2019s 2004 campaign chair in Mew Mexico and said, \u201con all issues that matter, he toes the Bush\/Cheney line.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cJust as it was in Louisiana<\/st1:state>, Illinois<\/st1:state> and Mississippi<\/st1:state>, it\u2019s clear to New Mexicans that a vote for the Republican candidate is a vote for endless war in Iraq<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and George Bush\u2019s failed economic policies that have left middle-class families behind,\u201d Blair said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

White\u2019s campaign manager, Sara Lister, disagreed.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThe voters in our congressional district understand that Darren White is his own man and not beholden to any political party,\u201d she said. \u201cDarren has a proven record of being an independent voice who is unafraid to shake things up to get results. That\u2019s why he won re-election as sheriff with 63 percent of the vote in Bernalillo<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place> in 2006 during an exceptionally bad year for Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the conservative 2nd District<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

As noted in The Politico\u2019s article and another from the Washington Post blog The Fix<\/a>, even New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s 2nd District, normally a GOP stronghold, might be in play if the special House elections are any indication. The Fix notes that the Mississippi<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> district \u2013 which Childers won by eight points \u2013 is as much a Republican stronghold as are the southern New Mexico House district and several others across the nation.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats may have a much broader field of targets this fall than we previously thought,\u201d The Fix wrote.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee<\/a> (DCCC), the fundraising arm of House Democrats, has already listed New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s 2nd and 1st districts as targets this year. The moderate 1st District is usually on the group\u2019s target list, but the 2nd District is much more conservative and is not a race that automatically earns national attention.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Christopher Maloney, spokesman for Republican 2nd District candidate Ed Tinsley<\/a>, highlighted a tactic that proved disastrous for the GOP in Mississippi<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>: trying to tie Childers to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cRepublican congressional campaigns which seek to solely demonize their opponents by tying them to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton<\/a> or a national liberal Democrat agenda will find a similar fate as the previous campaigns we\u2019ve witnessed this cycle,\u201d Maloney said. \u201cThe same holds true for Democrats who wish to link their opponents to President George W. Bush or John McCain<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That, Maloney said, is because politics is local. He said the issues in the 2nd District are \u201cdistinctly different\u201d from those in Mississippi<\/st1:state>, Louisiana<\/st1:state> and Illinois<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Republican 2nd District candidate C. Earl Greer<\/a> said he has criticized congressional Republicans for \u201closing their way and having steered away from Republican values.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s why they lost the majority in 2006, and I still think you\u2019re seeing some of that,\u201d he said of the three special-election losses. \u201cI\u2019m pretty convinced that after I win the primary I\u2019m going to win the general because I\u2019m bringing those values back, or I\u2019m not straying away from those values.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Democratic 2nd District candidate Bill McCamley<\/a> said the Democrats\u2019 victories this year show that \u201cDemocrats can win in districts that people have long called \u2018Republican.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt shows that people all across the country are fed up and looking for change,\u201d he said. \u201cThey want someone who will stand up for regular people.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

McCamley said he\u2019s especially excited about the result in Mississippi<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> because the media firm that worked for Childers, Fletcher, Rowley, Chao, Riddle<\/a>, is also working for his campaign.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the Senate race<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Because the three seats Democrats have picked up in special elections were in the House, much of the talk about the fallout from the Democratic victories has focused on that arm of Congress. House Republicans are also vulnerable this year because the DCCC has a huge fundraising advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee<\/a>, the fundraising arm of House Republicans.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s Senate race is also a concern in the context of the Democratic House victories, said Whitney Cheshire, spokeswoman for GOP Senate candidate Heather Wilson<\/a>. In that primary race, Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> has highlighted her moderate \u2013 or as she calls it, \u201ccommonsense conservative\u201d \u2013 record in arguing that she\u2019s more electable than her ideologue opponent Steve Pearce<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cRepublican losses in Illinois<\/st1:state>, Louisiana<\/st1:state> and now Mississippi<\/st1:state> clearly show that we need to nominate Republicans who can win in the general election,\u201d Cheshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> said. \u201cThis year, there will be no room for flubs and flaws for Republicans, even in normally safe districts. Electability will continue to be one of the biggest issues in this Senate primary. That\u2019s why we need to elect a commonsense conservative like Heather Wilson.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Marissa Padilla, spokeswoman for Democratic Senate candidate Tom Udall<\/a>, said voters are clearly looking for change.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThey want leaders who will focus on doing the right thing and are willing to work across the aisle to get results,\u201d Padilla said. \u201cThey want leaders who will stand up to the special interests and reject the partisanship and failed policies of the Bush era.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve disclosed in the past, I\u2019m friends with McCamley. Click here<\/a> to read more about that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Democrat Travis Childers\u2019 Tuesday victory in a special election in a conservative Mississippi U.S. House district has Washington Republicans reeling and pundits considering the possibility that other GOP seats \u2013 even New Mexico\u2019s right-leaning 2nd Congressional District \u2013 are more vulnerable than previously thought. It was the third time this year that a Democrat won […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3237"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3237\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}