{"id":3117,"date":"2008-04-18T14:13:00","date_gmt":"2008-04-18T20:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/04\/despite-advantages-udall-cant-celebrate-yet\/"},"modified":"2008-04-18T14:13:00","modified_gmt":"2008-04-18T20:13:00","slug":"despite-advantages-udall-cant-celebrate-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/04\/despite-advantages-udall-cant-celebrate-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Despite advantages, Udall can’t celebrate yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>While Democrat Tom Udall<\/a> is vastly outraising the two Republicans in the U.S. Senate race and leading in the polls, one of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s top political analysts says it\u2019s too early for him to celebrate. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cNovember is a long way off,\u201d said Brian Sanderoff, whose company Research and Polling Inc.<\/a> is the top polling firm in the state. \u201cIf the election were held today, Udall would beat Wilson or Pearce comfortably\u2026 Come November, the circumstances will be different.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Udall began April with almost $2.6 million in the bank, while GOP candidate Heather Wilson<\/a> had $1.2 million on hand and GOP candidate Steve Pearce<\/a> had a little more than $854,000. During the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, Udall bested the combined fundraising efforts of both GOP candidates. He\u2019s saving most of that cash because he doesn\u2019t have a primary opponent, while Pearce and Wilson are spending money in what has become an increasingly contentious primary battle.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There are other positive signs for Udall in the race that involves all three of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s members of the U.S. House. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll<\/a> with a margin of error of 4.5 percent had him leading Pearce by 14 points and Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> by 20 points in potential general-election match-ups. He was one of the top fundraisers in the nation during the first quarter of 2008 through the liberal fundraising site ActBlue<\/a>. And the latest rating by the Washington Post\u2019s Chris Cillizza<\/a> has the New Mexico Senate seat currently held by the GOP\u2019s retiring Pete Domenici as the second most likely in the nation to change party control in November.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Udall campaign manager Amanda Cooper said she\u2019s confident, but also knows the campaign can\u2019t take anything for granted. She said the Republican candidates have one advantage because of their primary battle.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ll be spending a lot of money, which will also get them a lot of name ID,\u201d she said. \u201cWe really know that this could be a close race. It\u2019s a state that is always competitive on the top of the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Sanderoff agreed. He said Udall may be currently outraising the GOP candidates because he has no primary and Democrats are free to rally behind him. It\u2019s more difficult for national organizations and others to get involved in the GOP primary, he said, so Wilson and Pearce have to raise money primarily on their own, using personal contacts.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

He said Udall is in a better position than Pearce and Wilson \u2013 able to raise money more easily and not being beaten down by criticism from within his party \u2013 but he said the winner of the GOP primary will have little difficulty raising money for the general election. The Senate seat has been in Republican hands for 35 years, and it\u2019s not one the party is going to give up without a fight.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThe general election I see as totally different than the primary,\u201d Sanderoff said. \u201cPearce and Wilson are both formidable opponents.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Differences between the GOP candidates<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There are some differences between the GOP candidates. Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is generally viewed as a more moderate Republican who often compromises with Democrats. Pearce more often holds to his ideology and refuses to compromise.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Because of that, Pearce has primary endorsements from the right-wing Club for Growth<\/a>, which advocates for smaller government and lower taxes, and the Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund<\/a>, which supports pro-life candidates.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Pearce won the preprimary nominating convention with 54.5 percent of the vote to Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s 45.5 percent. There\u2019s been no public polling done on the Senate primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Sanderoff said it\u2019s difficult to say which candidate has a better shot at beating Udall, but, historically, moderate Republicans have had more success in top-of-the-ticket races in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> than conservative Republicans.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

<\/span>\u201cI\u2019m not going to say that (Wilson) is better, but I\u2019m saying that, holding all things equal, a moderate Republican has enjoyed more statewide success than a conservative,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The question is whether all things are equal, he said. Wilson<\/st1:city>, having represented the Albuquerque-area First Congressional District for years, has been pounded repeatedly in the Albuquerque<\/st1:city> television market, which reaches all but 200,000 of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s residents. That means her name recognition is higher than that of Pearce, who represents the more rural Second Congressional District of Southern New Mexico, but so are her negatives.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Pearce, Sanderoff said, could paint Udall as far to the left. Just like New Mexicans tend to not elect far-right candidates in high-profile races, \u201cthey don\u2019t go that far to the left, either.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Fundraising momentum<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Campaign spokesman Brian Phillips said Pearce has the momentum in the primary, pointing out that his fundraising in the first three months of 2008 was better than his fundraising in the previous quarter, while Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s stagnated. Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> raised about $515,000 in the first quarter of 2008 and about $517,000 in the last quarter of 2007, while Pearce raised almost $474,000 in the first three months of the year, up from about $426,000 during the previous quarter.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got great momentum going into the primary. We\u2019re having no trouble raising money and we\u2019re seeing an incredible amount of support throughout New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>,\u201d Phillips said. \u201cWe\u2019re gaining on Tom Udall while (Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>) is falling behind.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Wilson<\/st1:city> spokeswoman Whitney Cheshire pointed out that Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> outraised Pearce during both quarters.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are pleased to have the support of thousands of New Mexicans,\u201d Cheshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> said. \u201cCongresswoman Wilson once again out raised Congressman Pearce.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Though Pearce briefly ran a television ad<\/a> in January introducing himself to voters as a way to increase name identification, neither is currently on television. Both campaigns declined to comment on when or if they will air ads before the June 3 primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There are four debates between Pearce and Wilson coming up \u2013 two in Albuquerque<\/st1:city> that will be televised, one in Roswell<\/st1:city> and one in Los Alamos<\/st1:place>. The GOP candidates participated in one other debate<\/a> in Alamogordo<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> in February.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cShe is looking forward to the debates because it gives the voters the best opportunity to see the candidates side-by-side,\u201d Cheshire<\/st1:city> said of Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>. \u201cBoth Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are seasoned debaters, so we expect a lot of interest.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThis will give us a real chance to show a clear distinction between the conservative candidate \u2013 Steve Pearce \u2013 and Heather Wilson, who regularly votes with Tom Udall,\u201d Phillips said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2018We\u2019re going to be prepared\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Udall has been a frequent topic in the primary, mainly as a way for the GOP candidates to contrast themselves with each other. Pearce has pointed out that Wilson and Udall sometimes vote together, while Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> often portrays herself as the sensible moderate in a race that also features two extremists.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Cooper said the Udall campaign is focused on raising money and preparing to run \u201ca very strong campaign.\u201d That will include being ready to quickly respond to attacks from the GOP candidate and outside groups that she expects to insert themselves into the race with television and radio ads.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to be prepared to make sure that Tom\u2019s strong record is not misconstrued,\u201d she said. \u201cThey\u2019re not shy about a nasty race and we want to make sure that people are aware of the congressman\u2019s record.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

She wouldn\u2019t predict who will win the primary or say whether Udall is pulling for one candidate over the other.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cEither of them is formidable, and we\u2019re going to be prepared for a very good race,\u201d Cooper said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While Democrat Tom Udall is vastly outraising the two Republicans in the U.S. Senate race and leading in the polls, one of New Mexico\u2019s top political analysts says it\u2019s too early for him to celebrate. \u201cNovember is a long way off,\u201d said Brian Sanderoff, whose company Research and Polling Inc. is the top polling firm […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3117\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}