{"id":3039,"date":"2008-03-28T14:38:00","date_gmt":"2008-03-28T20:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/wiviott-gains-on-lujan-in-new-cd3-poll\/"},"modified":"2008-03-28T14:38:00","modified_gmt":"2008-03-28T20:38:00","slug":"wiviott-gains-on-lujan-in-new-cd3-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/wiviott-gains-on-lujan-in-new-cd3-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Wiviott gains on Luj\u00e1n in new CD3 poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>A new poll of likely Democratic voters in the Third Congressional District has Don Wiviott<\/a> gaining ground on Ben R. Luj\u00e1n<\/a>. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll, conducted for Wiviott\u2019s campaign by Lake Research Partners<\/a>, has Luj\u00e1n up seven points, 23 percent to 16 percent. It places Jon Adams<\/a>, Harry Montoya<\/a> and Benny Shendo Jr.<\/a> each at 4 percent, and Rudy Martin<\/a> at 2 percent. Some 48 percent said they are undecided.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That\u2019s much different than the results of a poll conducted at the end of January by the Luj\u00e1n campaign. That poll had Luj\u00e1n with 35 percent of the vote to Montoya\u2019s 9 percent, Wiviott\u2019s 6 percent, 4 percent each for Adams and Shendo, 2 percent for Martin and 3 percent for Derrith Watchman-Moore, who ended up staying out of the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In between the two polls, Wiviott became the first congressional candidate in the state to run television commercials<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThis race is wide open,\u201d Celinda<\/st1:placename> Lake<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place>, president of Lake Research Partners, said in a news release about the new poll. \u201cMomentum is clearly on (Wiviott\u2019s) side. Every day more and more voters are responding positively to his call for change.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Wiviott said he is \u201chumbled by the outpouring of support our campaign continues to generate.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are desperate for change and leaders who can deliver it,\u201d he said. \u201cFor too long, Congress has stood idly as Bush Republicans replace our government with divisive politics and right-wing ideology. New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> needs to elect leaders who will fight tooth and nail to move our country forward and put the interests of the American people first.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

You can read the memo on the Wiviott poll by clicking here<\/a>. The Luj\u00e1n campaign has not provided me with a copy of the memo on its January poll.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But Luj\u00e1n Campaign Manager Carlos Trujillo confirmed the numbers from the January poll today in an interview. He pointed out that the numbers released in the Wiviott polling memo \u201cdon\u2019t add up to 100 percent\u201d and said they \u201cdon\u2019t seem realistic.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe feel really good about where we are,\u201d Trujillo<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Wiviott Campaign spokeswoman Caroline Buerkle said the numbers provided in the Wiviott polling memo add up to 101 percent because of rounding, which is common in polls. She said Luj\u00e1n\u2019s exact percentage was 22.5, Wiviott\u2019s was 16.1, Montoya and Shendo came in at 4.3 percent, Adams was at 3.5 percent, Martin was at 1.6 percent and 47.6 percent were undecided.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Buerkle also said the poll included no pushing. The wording of the question was \u201cAnd if the Democratic primary election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were (their names were randomized here), for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?\u201d She said that question was asked before, not after, a series of questions about issues and other topics.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Wiviott\u2019s poll, which surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters, was conducted from Monday to Thursday. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Luj\u00e1n\u2019s poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research<\/a> from Jan. 27 to 30. It surveyed 504 likely Democratic voters and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Analysis<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It\u2019s no surprise that Wiviott has gained support after flooding television with ads. His name recognition has gone up significantly, and he\u2019s beginning to get his message to voters. Luj\u00e1n will get on television at some point as well, and that will cause his numbers to climb.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But both polls had a very high number of undecided voters. I\u2019ve thought all along that either candidate could win this primary, and the newest poll simply confirms that.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Both polling companies are reputable, though in New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>, Luj\u00e1n\u2019s has a longer client list that includes the governor and lieutenant governor.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Wiviott will continue to outspend Luj\u00e1n in this race. Look for him to close the gap some more as undecided voters pick a candidate. But expect him and Luj\u00e1n to stay fairly close to each other in the polls. The support taken by the other four Democratic candidates may end up deciding this race.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll of likely Democratic voters in the Third Congressional District has Don Wiviott gaining ground on Ben R. Luj\u00e1n. The poll, conducted for Wiviott\u2019s campaign by Lake Research Partners, has Luj\u00e1n up seven points, 23 percent to 16 percent. It places Jon Adams, Harry Montoya and Benny Shendo Jr. each at 4 percent, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3039\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}