{"id":3023,"date":"2008-03-25T19:15:00","date_gmt":"2008-03-26T01:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/poll-gives-mccamley-a-commanding-lead-over-teague\/"},"modified":"2008-03-25T19:15:00","modified_gmt":"2008-03-26T01:15:00","slug":"poll-gives-mccamley-a-commanding-lead-over-teague","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/poll-gives-mccamley-a-commanding-lead-over-teague\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll gives McCamley a ‘commanding’ lead over Teague"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Bill McCamley<\/a> has a nearly two-to-one lead over Harry Teague<\/a> in the Second Congressional District Democratic primary, according to a poll released by McCamley\u2019s campaign this evening. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research<\/a>, has McCamley ahead by 21 points, 43 percent to 22 percent. With 70 days until the June 3 primary, that is a \u201ccommanding\u201d lead for McCamley, the company\u2019s poll memo states.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A large percentage of those surveyed \u2013 35 percent \u2013 were undecided. The survey of 403 likely Democratic voters was conducted between March 17 and 19 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent. You can read the company\u2019s memo on the poll by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u201cThere are still many voters who are undecided in this district, but there is no doubt that McCamley begins the contest in the driver\u2019s seat and is in a strong position to win the primary election in June,\u201d the memo states.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

McCamley led Teague in the poll in every demographic group and among men and women, and he was ahead across most of the district. He led Teague by more than 50 points in Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> \u2013 McCamley\u2019s home county \u2013 and was tied with Teague in the eastern part of the district. Teague is from Lea<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I requested the exact language of the question that was asked, since the lack of disclosure of questions sometimes raises questions about polls. Here\u2019s the language the McCamley campaign said was used:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIf the primary election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were Bill McCamley, Harry Teague and Al Kissling<\/a>, for whom would you vote \u2013 Bill McCamley, Harry Teague or Al Kissling?\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If respondents picked Kissling, they were then asked this question:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cAnd let me ask you again about the Democratic primary election for U.S. Congress in June. If the primary election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were Bill McCamley and Harry Teague, for whom would you vote \u2013 Bill McCamley or Harry Teague?\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Kissling dropped out of the race earlier today. The McCamley campaign didn\u2019t release the results from the question that included Kissling in the poll.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

\n

This is the first poll of the CD2 Democratic primary contest to be released publicly, and it adds to the recent string of good news for the McCamley campaign. He won the Democratic Party preprimary nominating convention on March 15 with 49 percent of the vote to Teague\u2019s 36 percent. And because Kissling, like McCamley, is from Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, Kissling\u2019s departure from the race is almost certain to benefit McCamley over Teague.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

The poll was conducted for the McCamley campaign by a respected company that\u2019s also used by Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a> and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Where things stand<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve said all along I expect this to be a close primary contest, and I still believe that. As of Dec. 31, Teague had $362,735 on hand but also carried a $200,000 debt from a personal loan to his campaign. McCamley had $212,401 on hand and no debt. The next fundraising quarter ends Monday, and reports will become public two weeks later.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

According to his own poll, McCamley currently has a big lead, and Teague is going to have to outspend him significantly to catch up. But, as I\u2019ve said before, I expect Teague to outspend McCamley two to one in the primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

McCamley\u2019s campaign is better organized, as evidenced by his strong preprimary win. But he entered the race several months before Teague, and Teague has the potential to make up some ground in the organizational category as well.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

There are a lot of undecided voters in this race. I expect Teague to gain some ground on McCamley before June 3 as both candidates work to draw undecideds into their camps. But, assuming the poll is accurate, McCamley has a strong lead, and Teague has his work cut out for him.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

The bottom line: McCamley can now make a credible argument that he\u2019s the frontrunner in the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve disclosed in the past, I\u2019m friends with McCamley. Click here<\/a> to read about that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bill McCamley has a nearly two-to-one lead over Harry Teague in the Second Congressional District Democratic primary, according to a poll released by McCamley\u2019s campaign this evening. The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, has McCamley ahead by 21 points, 43 percent to 22 percent. With 70 days until the June 3 primary, that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}