{"id":2950,"date":"2008-03-06T08:31:00","date_gmt":"2008-03-06T14:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/first-quarter-recap\/"},"modified":"2009-08-22T14:10:05","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T20:10:05","slug":"first-quarter-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/03\/first-quarter-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"First quarter recap"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>By Carter Bundy<\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

This January 3rd, Virginia Tech\u2019s football team was favored against Kansas<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> in the Orange Bowl. The Hokies folded, though, proving that picking winners before the game ends is not the same as playing the game.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The even bigger story that night was the record number of Iowans who skipped the Hokie implosion to kick off this year\u2019s presidential primary season.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

With Hillary Clinton<\/a> dominating Super Tuesday II, the primary game is far from over. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There seems to be a widespread, and very understandable, feeling that the superdelegates shouldn\u2019t overturn the will of the voters. Those who want to stop the game early look at the elected delegate totals and figure Hillary has a nearly impossible task if she\u2019s to win \u201cthe will\u201d of the voters.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Numbers, numbers, numbers<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Problem is, according to Chuck Todd on NPR, Hillary\u2019s already winning the popular vote (by 30,000) if you count Florida<\/st1:state> and Michigan<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Michigan<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s a skewed result because Barack Obama<\/a> and some others took themselves off the ballot, and Michigan Dems themselves scheduled it outside of the DNC window.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But Florida<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> not only had all the candidates on the ballot, only Obama advertised on TV there. Plus, it was the GOP Legislature and governor who scheduled the early primary, so Dems in Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> have a strong case to have their votes counted.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Even without Florida<\/st1:state>, if Hillary wins Pennsylvania<\/st1:state> with a big margin, there\u2019s a decent chance she leads the popular vote going into Denver<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If Hillary wins the popular vote, it kills Barack\u2019s argument that superdelegates are unfair. The truth is the entire delegate allocation process is unfair and undemocratic. Obama will come across as a tremendous hypocrite if he argues that superdelegates should only vote for the elected delegate winner if the elected delegate winner himself is not the popular vote winner.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Other questions abound: What if one candidate wins if superdelegates go with their state delegation but the other wins if superdelegates go with the national popular and\/or elected delegate winner? The math is going to be crazy.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Red-state Dems<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the electability argument, there\u2019s one piece of information that doesn\u2019t show up on John King\u2019s map (which is incredibly cool): an analysis of who the Dems are in each state. Much has been made about Obama\u2019s success in red states.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019d wager dollars to donuts that those Dems are far from typical red-state voters, but journalists keep reporting Barack\u2019s red-state success as a sign that he can win them in the general. Maybe, but it\u2019s a hard argument without knowing more about the composition of Dem primary voters.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Test time<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The primary campaign will go forward for at least another two months. Bad for the Dems, right? Not necessarily. First, Hillary and Barack get the spotlight through at least April 22, and probably through August. That means Dem issues dominate, and as long as they aren\u2019t vicious to each other, that\u2019s a plus.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The grueling calendar is also a good test for the presidency. There\u2019s the physical stamina test. Both Hillary and Barack have shown they\u2019re able to work 15-20 hour days for weeks on end, while not completely breaking down.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There\u2019s the test of how candidates handle adversity. For example, Obama had the bad luck of having two negative stories break at the same time \u2013 the start of a legal case against his long-time friend and major donor Tony Rezko and Goolsbee-gate.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Goolsbee-gate was the disclosure (covered up at first by the campaign) that one of his top economic advisors, Austan Goolsbee, had been telling the Canadian government that Obama\u2019s anti-NAFTA talk in Ohio was just political posturing.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Obama handled his first foray into negative press badly, digging at a reporter personally and losing his signature cool, calm, deflecting demeanor.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The good news for Obama is after being tested by negative media, he should grow from it.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Both Dems are being tested in ways that Senator McCain<\/a> hasn\u2019t been since W<\/a> ferociously attacked him with the most disgusting of race-baiting in South Carolina<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> in 2000 (with South Carolina Republicans eagerly accommodating the Bush campaign\u2019s racism).<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Third, there\u2019s the test of how good an operation each candidate can muster. One of the most underrated challenges of being president is filling thousands of political appointments and overseeing the running of dozens of cabinet and lower-level agencies.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

With Hillary\u2019s exposure to a competent executive branch in the 90s, she doesn\u2019t face questions about that issue. Barack, on the other hand, simply by virtue of his youth and relative inexperience, will face Republican questions about his ability to pull together an administration.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

This year\u2019s drawn-out primary season has given him an opportunity to address that question, and on this test, he has done very well. Obama has put together a solid field and media program across the country, and is getting high marks for organizational prowess while picking up substantive experience.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Two months down, eight to go<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Iowa<\/st1:state> was 61 days before Ohio<\/st1:state> and Texas<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>. Pennsylvania<\/st1:state> is 49 days after Ohio<\/st1:state> and Texas<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>. You think the last two months were an eternity, wait until you have the same intensity, with more dollars, but only in one state. Yikes!<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So sit back, fill the fridge with beer and the pantry with chips, and enjoy the second quarter. By June we should have an idea of whether there will be a popular vote\/elected delegate split, and then we\u2019ll kick off the third quarter.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Bundy is the political and legislative director for AFSCME<\/a> in New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>. The opinions in his column are personal and do not necessarily reflect any official AFSCME position. You can learn more about him by clicking here<\/a>. Contact him at carterbundy@yahoo.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Carter Bundy This January 3rd, Virginia Tech\u2019s football team was favored against Kansas in the Orange Bowl. The Hokies folded, though, proving that picking winners before the game ends is not the same as playing the game. The even bigger story that night was the record number of Iowans who skipped the Hokie implosion […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bundy-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2950\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}