{"id":2816,"date":"2008-02-02T16:34:00","date_gmt":"2008-02-02T22:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/02\/obama-leads-clinton-in-new-n-m-poll\/"},"modified":"2008-02-02T16:34:00","modified_gmt":"2008-02-02T22:34:00","slug":"obama-leads-clinton-in-new-n-m-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/02\/obama-leads-clinton-in-new-n-m-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama leads Clinton in new N.M. poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>A new poll of New Mexico Democrats \u2013 the first conducted since Bill Richardson<\/a> left the presidential race \u2013 has Barack Obama<\/a> leading Hillary Clinton<\/a> by six points. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

However, that\u2019s within the margin of error of 7 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

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The statewide survey of 207 New Mexico Democrats who are likely to vote, conducted Jan. 22-31, had Obama up 48 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided.<\/p>\n

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<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems like a great poll, but we know that we are underdogs in this state and we\u2019re going to scrap and fight for change,\u201d said Obama spokesman Trevor Fitzgibbon. \u201cThat\u2019s why we have canvassers out in 17 communities and cities pushing for change right now, because we are underdogs.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>The Clinton<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> campaign could not immediately be reached for comment.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll is significant in advance of Tuesday\u2019s Democratic Party caucus because it\u2019s the first survey to indicate the dynamics of the race without Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> in it.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll was conducted by students in the Political Research Skills government course at New Mexico<\/st1:placename> State<\/st1:placetype> University<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place>. Professor Jose Z. Garcia, a well-known political analyst, supervised the polling and personally interviewed Spanish speakers \u2013 calling them back after they were reached by students who could not interview them \u2013 to ensure they were included in the poll.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The Demographics of those surveyed are fairly close to the state\u2019s demographics, Garcia said, so he is confident in the poll. However, a number of factors could lead to different results when Democrats vote on Tuesday, he said. Polling has become more difficult over the years, in part because of the increased use of cell phones, and polls in New Hampshire<\/st1:state> and South Carolina<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> have been wrong in part because of unusually high voter turnout.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point I would go with the poll and say that\u2019s the likely outcome, unless there is a significant difference in turnout,\u201d Garcia said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll found Clinton<\/st1:city> slightly stronger among Hispanics \u2013 48 percent to Obama\u2019s 46 percent \u2013 and Obama stronger among non-Hispanics \u2013 49 percent to Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s 38 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll did not account for the fact that others will appear on the ballot on Tuesday \u2013 including Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> \u2013 even though they have dropped out of the race. Those surveyed were only given the choice between Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, Obama and undecided.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Other results<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The survey was part of a larger poll of 409 New Mexicans that also asked about the GOP presidential primary, the U.S. Senate race and the popularity of the governor and president. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The survey of 142 Republicans found John McCain<\/a> with the support of 44 percent and a huge lead in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. His closest challenger was Mitt Romney<\/a>, who had the support of 20 percent those surveyed. That survey has a margin of error of 8 percent.<\/p>\n

\n

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New Mexico Republicans aren\u2019t holding their presidential primary until June.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll found Democrat Tom Udall<\/a> with a 53 percent to 31 percent lead over Republican Steve Pearce<\/a> in a potential general-election contest and a 58 percent to 30 percent lead over Republican Heather Wilson<\/a> in a potential general-election contest.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

President George W. Bush<\/a> has a 31-percent approval rating in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, according to the survey, while 59 percent disapprove and 9 percent have no opinion. Asked to rate Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s performance on a scale of 1-5, with five being the highest, 50 percent gave him a four or five, while 24 percent gave him a one or two.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The questions about the Senate race and president have a margin of error of 5 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

You can see the entire poll by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Update, Feb. 3, 9 p.m.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Kristin Lee, the Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> campaign spokeswoman, said across the nation the polls are \u201call over the place\u201d and the campaign isn\u2019t focusing on polls. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cHere\u2019s what we know: We have a tremendous amount of support in the state. We have a great organization. And we have the only candidate who supports universal health care, a candidate with the best solutions for how to fix the economy and a candidate with the experience to end the war in Iraq,\u201d Lee said. \u201cThere is so much excitement for Hillary Clinton here, and we\u2019re expecting to do very well on Tuesday.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new poll of New Mexico Democrats \u2013 the first conducted since Bill Richardson left the presidential race \u2013 has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by six points. However, that\u2019s within the margin of error of 7 percent. The statewide survey of 207 New Mexico Democrats who are likely to vote, conducted Jan. 22-31, had […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2816"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2816\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}