{"id":2694,"date":"2008-01-04T02:39:00","date_gmt":"2008-01-04T08:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/01\/for-richardson-its-no-longer-about-winning-the-race\/"},"modified":"2008-01-04T02:39:00","modified_gmt":"2008-01-04T08:39:00","slug":"for-richardson-its-no-longer-about-winning-the-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/01\/for-richardson-its-no-longer-about-winning-the-race\/","title":{"rendered":"For Richardson, it’s no longer about winning the race"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>When he finished with the support of 0.02 percent of caucus goers in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> on Thursday, Chris Dodd<\/a> had the sense to withdraw from the presidential race. After his 0.93 percent finish, Joe Biden<\/a> did the same. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the difference between those two and Bill Richardson<\/a>, who finished the night with an embarrassing 2.11-percent finish?<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If his focus remains on winning the race, there\u2019s not much difference. Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> will not win the presidency. It\u2019s over. If winning is his only goal, he should withdraw.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But if his goal is securing another position in Washington<\/st1:state>, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> has lots of incentive to stay in the race, at least a little longer.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

For starters, because he finished fourth in Iowa<\/st1:state> \u2013 albeit a dismal fourth \u2013 Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> gets to participate on Saturday in ABC News\u2019 nationally televised debate along with the three frontrunners. That gives him one more chance to gain national exposure and go head-to-head with the cream of the crop in his party.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In addition, Richardson<\/st1:city> has enough money, sources tell me, to compete in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, so he may as well do it.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Beyond that, Richardson<\/st1:city> has said he\u2019ll stay in the race at least through Feb. 5, when Democrats in several Western states will pick their nominee, but he\u2019s also said if he loses the presidential race he will return to New Mexico<\/st1:state> to serve out his term as governor, not seek another job in Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If Richar<\/st1:city>dson<\/st1:city> really planned to remain governor of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, he would be foolish to stay in the race past Tuesday. He would miss most of the legislative session and lose further control of state government to the Senate, setting the stage for a frustrating final three years as governor.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The fact that Richardson plans to stay in the race though Feb. 5, assuming that statement is to be believed, suggests that Richardson has no intention of returning to New Mexico.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

My prediction on Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s future<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Take my prediction for what it\u2019s worth, but here\u2019s what I see as the most likely scenario:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> does compete in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and finishes, again, in fourth place. He continues on through Feb. 5, with similar results. Meanwhile, the state Senate calls the shots in Santa Fe<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> drops out after Feb. 5, having won New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> but placing fourth or worse in all other states, and returns home to cheering supporters. He immediately jumps into the last week of the legislative session, doesn\u2019t get what he wants, and calls lawmakers back for a special session reminiscent of the 2007 fiasco.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> tries to get one or two r\u00e9sum\u00e9-boosting bills out of the special session \u2013 health-care reform, maybe an ethics bill, and perhaps he\u2019ll shoot for domestic partner benefits again \u2013 then wages a behind-the-scenes campaign for vice president, secretary of state or some other high position in Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. By Feb. 5 we\u2019ll know who wins the party\u2019s nomination, and Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> can offer to lead the candidate\u2019s Hispanic outreach movement or help in some other way.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

He\u2019ll spend the rest of the year on the campaign trail in an attempt to leave New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> a year from now to work in the new Democratic administration. If Richardson<\/st1:city> really planned to stay in New Mexico<\/st1:state>, why would he continue his campaign at a time when it\u2019s critical for him to be in Santa Fe<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, and after a defeat that must have shocked and demoralized his campaign?<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Huckabee wins, but it\u2019s Obama who shines<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Mike Huckabee\u2019s<\/a> resounding Iowa victory, which came because of the support of evangelical Christians, showed that the culture group that elected George Bush in 2000 and 2004 is still fairly united and single-mindedly focused on electing another conservative Christian. The GOP Caucus had record turnout, with evangelicals showing up in huge numbers.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Evangelicals across the nation were responsible for Bush\u2019s victories. If they carried Huckabee in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, there\u2019s good reason to suspect they will carry him to the Republican Party\u2019s nomination.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>But it was Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s Democratic caucus that will be remembered. Barack Obama<\/a> accomplished on Thursday a feat that is nearly impossible in politics: He got young people so excited that they turned out in large enough numbers to make a difference.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That wasn\u2019t the only unique aspect of Obama\u2019s victory. The turnout was even higher for the Democratic Caucus than it was for the GOP. Independents and even Republicans showed up to back Obama. Those who picked him overwhelmingly said they were voting for change. Change, not experience or electability, carried the night, and Obama\u2019s victory reflected the mood of the nation.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The other candidates knew it. When John Edwards<\/a> spoke after finishing second, he talked about change. Huckabee did too. Most obvious was Hillary Clinton\u2019s<\/a> new message. The candidate who has, throughout the campaign, contrasted her experience with Obama\u2019s message of change suddenly focused in a speech following her third-place finish on \u2013 you guessed it \u2013 change.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re not just trying to elect a president. We\u2019re trying to change a country. That is what I\u2019m committed to doing,\u201d she said. \u201c\u2026 I am so ready for the rest of this campaign and I am so ready to lead.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Obama gave the most rousing speech following the caucus.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThis was the moment when we finally beat back the politics of fear and doubt and cynicism, the politics that tear us down instead of building us up,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2026 Years from now, we\u2019ll look back and say this was the moment, this was the place where America<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> remembered what it means to hope.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cHope is the bedrock of this nation, the belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us,\u201d Obama said. \u201c\u2026 That is what we started in Iowa and that is the message that we can now carry to New Hampshire and beyond\u2026 the one that can change this country brick by brick, rock by rock, callous hand by callous hand, that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things, red states and blue states, because we are the United States of America.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

This was Obama\u2019s night to shine. The fact that even the GOP winner adopted Obama\u2019s message of change in his victory speech foreshadowed what\u2019s to come.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The alleged Obama-Richardson deal<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Many will wonder about the reported deal between Obama and Richardson that, if it really existed, helped Obama win Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. Both campaigns denied that there was a deal that had Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> sending support Obama\u2019s way in precincts where his supporters didn\u2019t reach the 15-percent viability threshold. Throughout the night, various news agencies reported that, at some precincts, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> supporters moved en masse to Obama\u2019s camp for the second round after they failed to reach 15 percent in the first round.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But in other precincts, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s supporters split among the three frontrunners. In the end, it\u2019s clear that Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s supporters did give Obama a boost in many precincts, but it\u2019s not clear whether they did it because there was a deal or because the day\u2019s news reports made them believe there was a deal that didn\u2019t really exist.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Speculation is rampant that Obama and Richardson are in cahoots, and the fact that the governor is staying in the race could fan the flames. Already, a blogger for The Politico<\/a> has labeled Richardson an Obama \u201cally.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

On to New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

One more interesting note: Sources who were at Iowa<\/st1:state> precincts and anecdotes from some news articles indicate that Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> was greater than the final numbers suggest. A pre-caucus survey placed Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s support at about 7 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But that\u2019s far short of the 15 percent that was necessary. I\u2019m told that, at many locations, Richardson<\/st1:city> had at least half the caucus goers needed to reach viability but, under the Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> system, that means no support.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Under New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>\u2019s primary system, on the other hand, a vote is a vote. Perhaps Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> will do a little better on Tuesday. But don\u2019t expect much. For the governor, it\u2019s no longer about winning the race.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When he finished with the support of 0.02 percent of caucus goers in Iowa on Thursday, Chris Dodd had the sense to withdraw from the presidential race. After his 0.93 percent finish, Joe Biden did the same. So what\u2019s the difference between those two and Bill Richardson, who finished the night with an embarrassing 2.11-percent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}