{"id":2676,"date":"2008-01-02T15:59:00","date_gmt":"2008-01-02T21:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/01\/as-he-falls-in-polls-guv-says-he-will-shock-the-world\/"},"modified":"2008-01-02T15:59:00","modified_gmt":"2008-01-02T21:59:00","slug":"as-he-falls-in-polls-guv-says-he-will-shock-the-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2008\/01\/as-he-falls-in-polls-guv-says-he-will-shock-the-world\/","title":{"rendered":"As he falls in polls, guv says he will ‘shock the world’"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>As Bill Richardson\u2019s<\/a> support in polls in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:state> continues to drop, the governor says he will \u201cshock the world\u201d when Democrats in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> caucus on Thursday. At the same time, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> also appears to be backing away from previous statements that he has to finish third or better there to have a shot at the nomination. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> has said throughout the campaign that he had to place third or better in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:state>, hoping that would propel him to victory in Nevada<\/st1:state> and strong showings on Feb. 5 in states like New Mexico<\/st1:state>, Arizona<\/st1:state> and California<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But about a week ago he began downplaying Iowa<\/st1:state>, mentioning only New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> when saying he had to finish third or better. Then, in an article published today in the Albuquerque Journal<\/a>, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> didn\u2019t mention either state.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m in this race at least until Feb. 5, to see how I do in my own (Western) region,\u201d the Journal quoted him as telling a crowd in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Why the shift? Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, and in national polls, continues to fall. Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in Iowa<\/a> today is 5 percent \u2013 down from 7.2 percent on Dec. 19 \u2013 and his average of recent polls in New Hampshire<\/a> is 4.8 percent \u2013 down from 7 percent on Dec. 19. His average of recent national polls<\/a> has fallen to 2 percent from his 2.9 percent average on Dec. 19.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Joe Biden<\/a> has climbed to an average of 3 percent in recent national polls, 4.5 percent in recent Iowa<\/st1:state> polls and 2.5 percent in recent New Hampshire<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> polls.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

Campaign claim doesn\u2019t match polls<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Polls \u2013 particularly under the archaic Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> caucus system \u2013 can be wrong. Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s campaign manager, Dave Contarino, put out a memo titled \u201cIowa Momentum<\/a>\u201d that claims the campaign has \u201cconfirmed\u201d 18,000 caucus supporters and expects to reach 22,000 by Thursday evening, which would give the governor the support of nearly 20 percent of caucus goers. In addition, he claims Richardson<\/st1:city> is the \u201cconfirmed\u201d second choice of nearly 25 percent of Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> Democratic caucus goers, which is important under the system because, if a candidate\u2019s support doesn\u2019t reach 15 percent at a precinct, his or her supporters have to move to their second choice.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Considering that Hillary Clinton<\/a>, John Edwards<\/a> and Barack Obama<\/a> are all polling at between 26 and 29 percent in Iowa, Contarino\u2019s claim is a nearly outrageous one that isn\u2019t supported by a single independent poll. In addition, you can bet that, if internal polling backed it up, the campaign would have released it. Recent independent polls have placed Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> at anywhere between 2 and 12 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s own backtracking on the importance of finishing third in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> suggests that even he doesn\u2019t believe he has anywhere near the level of support claimed by Contarino.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Still, Richardson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> continues to put a positive spin on the situation, telling CNN<\/a> that he\u2019s going to \u201cshock the world\u201d on Thursday. He has an army of hundreds of volunteers from New Mexico<\/st1:state> in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> to implore Democrats to pick him, which could give him a boost. He will probably do better in the state\u2019s rural areas than in urban areas, which, as explained by Carter Bundy<\/a>, is also a plus.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And the governor has flooded the airwaves in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> with television ads, nearly keeping pace with the frontrunners. He has to be spending all his money to do it, hoping for a big fundraising boost if he can pull off a miracle in either state.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> has received one other boost in recent days: He was endorsed by the Conway Daily Sun<\/a> in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, which called him the only heavyweight in the race. The paper, which is the only to endorse him in either state, has a circulation of about 16,000.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cA handful of years as senator\u2026 simply does not stack up to Richardson\u2019s powerful r\u00e9sum\u00e9 as a former congressman, energy secretary, U.N. ambassador, and now, governor of New Mexico,\u201d the endorsement stated.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The most likely scenario<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But that hasn\u2019t stopped Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> from sliding further behind the three frontrunners in the polls, and several articles have noted that the crowds showing up to hear Biden speak are growing. The senator spoke before 500 people on Tuesday \u2013 a number that rivals that of the Republican frontrunners \u2013 while Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> appeared before a crowd of about 70.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Still, enough Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> caucus goers remain undecided \u2013 which could mean they don\u2019t like the three frontrunners \u2013 that a second-tier candidate like Richardson or Biden could shock the world on Thursday. The most likely scenario, however, is that Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is going to finish fourth or even fifth behind Biden. The governor\u2019s new focus on staying in the race until Feb. 5 regardless of where he finishes in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> suggests he knows it.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Check back throughout the day and evening on Thursday, as I\u2019ll have complete coverage of the Iowa Caucus. Expect results sometime after 7 p.m.<\/st1:placename> Mountain<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place> Standard Time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Bill Richardson\u2019s support in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire continues to drop, the governor says he will \u201cshock the world\u201d when Democrats in Iowa caucus on Thursday. At the same time, Richardson also appears to be backing away from previous statements that he has to finish third or better there to have a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}