{"id":2655,"date":"2007-12-19T08:26:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-19T14:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/polisci-petri-dish\/"},"modified":"2009-08-22T14:10:32","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T20:10:32","slug":"polisci-petri-dish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/polisci-petri-dish\/","title":{"rendered":"PoliSci Petri dish"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Carter Bundy<\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

We\u2019re about two weeks away from finding out the answer to a classic political question: Which force is stronger, negativity or likeability? The GOP race in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> is setting up nicely to answer that very question.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I like Ike<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Two widely-held beliefs of presidential politics are about to be tested. Often, they\u2019re not in conflict. This year, though, only one will be proven right. The first axiom is that people vote for the candidate they like the most. Heck, Dwight Eisenhower even used it as a campaign slogan.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There has to be something to that, because if you don\u2019t give credence to that theory, the implication is that just under half of America<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> actually thought W was better qualified\/smarter\/had more potential to lead than Al Gore. Let\u2019s give the American electorate the benefit of the doubt and chalk W up to likeability.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I\u2019m not a Republican, so don\u2019t take this as gospel, but to me, it seems Mike Huckabee<\/a> is, by a large margin, the most likeable GOP candidate. He\u2019s funny, self-deprecating, charming, seems genuinely humble\u2026 a good guy.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That image is confirmed, at least for most GOP caucus and primary voters, in his new ad simply wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and eschewing any political talk, even positive political talk.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

As an aside, how crazy is the attack on Huckabee for the \u201cfloating cross\u201d bookshelf? They claim he was trying to send a subliminal message that he\u2019s a Christian. Ummm\u2026 doesn\u2019t he actually say in the ad that the most important thing about the season is the birth of Jesus Christ?<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Huck handled it beautifully by saying, \u201cYeah, and if you listen to the ad backwards, it says \u2018Paul is dead.\u2019\u201d I don\u2019t have a DVR that plays audio in reverse, but of course he\u2019s being facetious. Clever\/cute pop reference and disarming good-natured humor. Likeable.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So in one corner, we have likeability. Can\u2019t miss. Doesn\u2019t miss. Sure-fire winner. Roosevelt<\/st1:place>. Eisenhower. Kennedy. Reagan. Clinton<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>. Even W (until everyone figured out that he\u2019s really in way over his head).<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

You\u2019ve got to fight<\/span><\/p>\n

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Except\u2026 in this corner we have another heavyweight truism: If you don\u2019t hit back hard when you\u2019re attacked, you\u2019re done. The Kerry campaign proved that in spades when it miscalculated the extent of damage from the Swiftboat campaign.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The actual Swiftee TV buy was only about $200,000 in three states, and apparently Kerry thought that he\u2019d be better off not drawing attention to the bogus charges by responding to them. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Instead, the cable and Internet perma-cycles turned the Kerry-bashers\u2019 largely un-refuted allegations into the story of the campaign. Kerry\u2019s reluctance to hit back was seen as weakness rather than staying above the fray. Negative campaigning works when the target doesn\u2019t hit back, or so it seems.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The matchup<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

This year, Mitt Romney<\/a> has taken to accusing Huck of being a meth-promoting, criminal-freeing governor. I wasn\u2019t in Arkansas and don\u2019t really have the time to review all 1,100+ pardons and commutations Huck allegedly handed out, so I\u2019m not in a position to pass judgment on the truth of the allegations.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Guess what: There aren\u2019t a lot of Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> caucus-goers who have that time or interest either. So the charges are out there, un-refuted.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That\u2019s sets a perfect stage for at least one data point to be developed in the political campaign world in the question of whether likeability trumps negative campaigning. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So far, it seems that Huck is banking on his likeability and positive approach to weather the negative storm. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If negative campaigning is ever going to be ineffective, you\u2019d think it\u2019s during holiday season, especially when the victim is simultaneously saying \u201cMerry Christmas.\u201d Yes, the ads often run back-to-back.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Thanks to the Iowa GOP putting the caucus on Jan. 3 (Dems followed suit to avoid double-voting and other issues), Mitt\u2019s ads are daringly being aired right in the middle of the Christmas season. So are Huck\u2019s warm, fuzzy ads.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Does Huckabee hit back? Maybe after Christmas. Maybe in targeted mailings. Or maybe he tries to ride the likeability maxim all the way through Jan. 3, setting up as close to a perfect political experiment as you can have.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t look now, but Club for Growth<\/a>, the uber-conservative anti-government group that tries to eliminate moderate Republicans, is also running negative ads on Huck\u2019s tax record. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Is likeability enough to make GOP voters ignore allegations that Huckabee\u2019s a terrible taxer and criminal coddler? If the charges remain un-refuted, GOP voters would have to really want to give the Huck the benefit of the doubt. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

What could make GOP caucus voters like someone that much? Maybe that floating cross was intentionally in there as an extra layer of Teflon after all. Anyone have a DVR that will play audio backwards? <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

My random guess (as if I know the inner workings of the GOP voter\u2019s mind): Huck rides it out in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> with positive messaging. He\u2019s bound to do some media talking-point-type stuff defending himself, and even work explanations into a few speeches or at least into his Q and A, but the general messaging will stay positive. And with the credibility he\u2019s built in other areas (read: religion), I\u2019m betting it works for him in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa, and Happy New Year from Iowa<\/st1:State><\/st1:place>! Oh, and Happy Festivus. If my calculations are right, that should spare me any negative comments, at least from Seinfeld devotees.<\/p>\n

\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Bundy is the political and legislative director for AFSCME<\/a> in New Mexico<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>. The opinions in his column are personal and do not necessarily reflect any official AFSCME position. You can learn more about him by clicking here<\/a>. Contact him at carterbundy@yahoo.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Carter Bundy We\u2019re about two weeks away from finding out the answer to a classic political question: Which force is stronger, negativity or likeability? The GOP race in Iowa is setting up nicely to answer that very question. I like Ike Two widely-held beliefs of presidential politics are about to be tested. Often, they\u2019re […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bundy-columns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2655"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2655\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}