{"id":263057,"date":"2017-01-03T12:33:33","date_gmt":"2017-01-03T19:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=263057"},"modified":"2017-01-03T12:36:57","modified_gmt":"2017-01-03T19:36:57","slug":"trump-and-the-climate-his-hot-air-on-warming-is-far-from-the-greatest-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2017\/01\/trump-and-the-climate-his-hot-air-on-warming-is-far-from-the-greatest-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump and the climate: His hot air on warming is far from the greatest threat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>President-elect Donald J. Trump has long pledged to undertake a profound policy shift on climate change from the low-carbon course President Obama made a cornerstone of his eight years in the White House.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_72372\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 336px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/gageskidmore\/5440990018\/in\/photolist-9hNuLJ-9hKrun-9hHqDv-9hLwdw-9hNwso-9hHpJr-9hLx6s-9hLwSC-9hKpTt-9hKraP-9hNwi1-9hKp4g-9hNvWh-HkLZL-2oQiC-9KUYs-9hLxAs-9VjNra-9KD2oX-qu7Gu-9rmBGH-9VT6fh-uooUsi-5RhK99-9hNwCN-9hKpmZ-9hNvfQ-9hKrPH-9hNvzC-9hKoVK-9hKrkx-9u7qjZ-9rd77n-xRyc1-9rknN8-5KnqeT-9rphtQ-9wtCb2-9uayT3-9FTZtY-fNcrqH-vPTJzZ-6Rnrkd-5Dd1xc-bXt9R-4r8psj-vGv8u-uT5y6P-vMTbLN-9DncXb\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-72372 size-medium\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-336x215.jpg\" alt=\"Donald Trump\" width=\"336\" height=\"215\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-336x215.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-768x493.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-771x494.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-1170x750.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald-780x500.jpg 780w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Trump-Donald.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 336px) 100vw, 336px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Gage Skidmore \/ Creative Commons<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">President-elect Donald Trump (<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\/\" target=\"_blank\">photo cc info<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cThis very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop,\u201d Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realdonaldtrump\/status\/418542137899491328?lang=en\" target=\"_blank\">tweeted a year ago<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In recent weeks, Trump doubled down, nominating champions of fossil fuels to several cabinet positions and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eenews.net\/greenwire\/2016\/12\/09\/stories\/1060046976\" target=\"_blank\">peppering his transition team<\/a> with longtime <a href=\"http:\/\/www.exposedbycmd.org\/2016\/12\/04\/revealed-trump-energy-plan\" target=\"_blank\">opponents of environmental regulations<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Both the rhetoric and the actions have provoked despair among many who fear a Trump presidency will tip the planet toward an overheated future, upending recent national and international efforts to stem emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from burning coal, oil and natural gas.<\/p>\n<p>But will a President Trump noticeably affect the globe\u2019s climate in ways that, say, a President Hillary Clinton would not have?<\/p>\n<p>In recent weeks, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/2394b684-bd62-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080\" target=\"_blank\">variety<\/a> of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.luxresearchinc.com\/news-and-events\/press-releases\/read\/trump-presidency-could-mean-34-billion-tons-more-us-carbon\" target=\"_blank\">consultants<\/a> tracking climate and energy policy have used models to help address that question. ProPublica asked Andrew P. Jones at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climateinteractive.org\/about\/staff\/\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Interactive<\/a>, a nonprofit hub for such analysis, to run one such comparison.<\/p>\n<p>The chosen scenario assumes Trump\u2019s actions could result in the United States only achieving half of its pledged reduction through 2030 under the <a href=\"http:\/\/unfccc.int\/paris_agreement\/items\/9485.php\" target=\"_blank\">Paris Agreement on climate change<\/a>, the worldwide but voluntary pact aiming to avoid dangerous global warming that entered into force on Nov. 4.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article comes from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.propublica.org\/article\/trump-and-the-climate-his-hot-air-on-warming-far-from-the-greatest-threat\" target=\"_blank\">ProPublica<\/a>, a Pulitzer Prize-winning newsroom.\u00a0Sign up for their\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.propublica.org\/forms\/newsletter_daily_email\" target=\"_blank\">newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>In this scenario the difference \u2014 call it the Trump effect \u2014 comes to 11 billion tons of additional carbon dioxide emitted between 2016 and 2030. That number is huge \u2014 it\u2019s the equivalent of more than five years\u2019 worth of emissions from all American power plants, for instance.<\/p>\n<p>But it\u2019s almost vanishingly small in global context. Here\u2019s why. Even if all signatories to the Paris pact met their commitments, the global total of CO2 emissions through 2030 would be 580 billion tons, with the United States accounting for 65 billion of those tons. The Trump difference could take American emissions to 76 billion tons, with that 11-billion-ton difference increasing cumulative global emissions by less than 2 percent.<\/p>\n<p>This calculation assumes Trump\u2019s effect is not as damaging as his rhetoric might suggest. Is that realistic? In interviews, more than half a dozen environmental economists and climate policy experts said yes.<\/p>\n<p>They said this less because they see Trump moderating his stances and more because many of the targets set by Obama, and built on in Clinton campaign pledges, were based on shifts in energy use that are largely being driven by market forces or longstanding environmental laws that are relatively immune to the influence of any particular occupant of the White House.<\/p>\n<p>These include polluting industries moving overseas, increasing industrial energy efficiency, a sustained shift away from coal to abundant, cleaner natural gas and wind, and a host of climate-friendly policies pursued by individual cities or states.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>For instance, while Wyoming is among the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eenews.net\/interactive\/clean_power_plan#planning_status_chart\" target=\"_blank\">27 states fighting President Obama\u2019s Clean Power Plan<\/a> in court, the coal-rich state looks set to meet the emissions benchmarks in those power-plant rules, largely because of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eenews.net\/eenewspm\/2016\/12\/08\/stories\/1060046908\" target=\"_blank\">a giant wind farm<\/a> poised to be built in, yes, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wyohistory.org\/encyclopedia\/carbon-county-wyoming\" target=\"_blank\">Carbon County<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.saratogasun.com\/story\/2016\/12\/14\/news\/transmission-line-approved\/5991.htm\" target=\"_blank\">newly approved transmission lines<\/a> to send electricity to states in the power-hungry Southwest.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s notable that while Trump\u2019s choice for secretary of energy, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, is a climate change contrarian, he\u2019s credited by clean-energy champions with overseeing an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2016\/12\/13\/recap-rick-perrys-texas-energy-legacy\/\" target=\"_blank\">enormous expansion of wind<\/a> energy in his state. \u201cTexas is a huge wind state, the biggest by far, and Rick Perry put in these transmission lines and made it wind friendly and that\u2019s why they have such cheap electricity and no problems with reliability \u2014 none,\u201d said <a href=\"http:\/\/energyinnovation.org\/team-member\/hal-harvey\/\" target=\"_blank\">Hal Harvey<\/a>, a longtime climate and energy analyst who has advised past Clinton and Bush administrations and run a clean-energy foundation.<\/p>\n<p>For many, this all hardly justifies a sigh of relief.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, many environmentalists reject the idea that any encouraging trends toward better energy choices are happening on their own. Many coal-fired power plants, they note, were stopped from being built only by lawsuits and political pressure brought by activist opponents, said <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kieransuckling\/status\/796434021332856832\" target=\"_blank\">Kier\u00e1n Suckling<\/a>, the founder of the Center for Biological Diversity, which uses the courts to limit harm to public lands and ecosystems.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIndustry and Republicans certainly don\u2019t believe in a secular trend. Instead they have poured enormous resources into trying to amend or repeal old laws, pass new industry-friendly laws, strike down and influence Obama\u2019s policies, and prevent activists from enforcing laws and policies,\u201d Suckling said.<\/p>\n<p>With Republicans controlling the White House and Congress, environmental groups are, in effect, \u201clawyering up,\u201d vowing to counter any \u201cdrill baby drill\u201d efforts with a \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/thetwo-way\/2016\/11\/29\/503742840\/environmentalists-gird-for-battle-with-a-trump-administration\" target=\"_blank\">sue baby sue<\/a>\u201d response.<\/p>\n<p>In the end, as global carbon-dioxide tallies reflect, such courtroom sparring, while important, is unlikely to have a game-changing impact on climate trajectories.<\/p>\n<p>Much the same thing can be said of the lasting impact of American presidents. For nearly three decades, White House occupants have pledged to move the needle on climate change one way or the other, without terribly dramatic results.<\/p>\n<p>In the scorching summer of 1988, when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/Revkin\/warmingrevkin1988discover\" target=\"_blank\">global warming first hit headlines<\/a> in a significant way, presidential candidate George H.W. Bush <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1989\/05\/09\/opinion\/the-white-house-and-the-greenhouse.html\" target=\"_blank\">used a Michigan speech to pledge meaningful action<\/a> curbing heat-trapping greenhouse gases, saying, \u201cThose who think we are powerless to do anything about the greenhouse effect forget about the White House effect.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Despite a host of actions since that summer, including President George H.W. Bush signing the foundational climate treaty in Rio in 1992, you\u2019d be hard-pressed to find evidence of such an effect in emission rates.<\/p>\n<p>Globally, the \u201cgreat acceleration\u201d in emissions (that\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.igbp.net\/news\/pressreleases\/pressreleases\/planetarydashboardshowsgreataccelerationinhumanactivitysince1950.5.950c2fa1495db7081eb42.html\" target=\"_blank\">a scientific description<\/a>) has largely tracked the growth in human numbers and resource appetites \u2014 particularly a seemingly insatiable appetite for energy, more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/publications\/freepublications\/publication\/KeyWorldEnergyTrends.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">80 percent of which<\/a> still comes from fossil fuels despite sustained efforts to spread efficiency and renewable choices.<\/p>\n<p>William Nordhaus, a Yale economist long focused on climate change policy, calls the global situation a high-stakes \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/cowles.yale.edu\/climate-casino-risk-uncertainty-and-economics-warming-world\" target=\"_blank\">climate casino<\/a>.\u201d He just <a href=\"http:\/\/cowles.yale.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/pub\/d20\/d2057.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">published a working paper<\/a>\u00a0concluding that all policies so far have amounted to \u201cminimal\u201d steps that have had equally minimal effects.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly three decades after that \u201cWhite House effect\u201d pledge, after eight years of sustained efforts by President Obama, including building <a href=\"http:\/\/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com\/2014\/11\/11\/in-joint-steps-on-emissions-china-and-u-s-set-aside-you-first-approach-on-global-warming\/\" target=\"_blank\">a critical 2014 partnership with China<\/a>, Nordhaus finds \u201cthere has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In the end, the main value of the climate calculations spurred by Trump\u2019s election could be in refocusing attention on the true scope of the challenge, which some researchers have described as \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11077-012-9151-0\" target=\"_blank\">super wicked<\/a>\u201d given how hard it has been, using conventional political, legal or diplomatic tools, to balance human energy needs and the climate system\u2019s limits.<\/p>\n<p>The Paris Agreement itself was far more <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2015\/12\/13\/opinion\/sunday\/the-climate-path-ahead.html\" target=\"_blank\">a diplomatic achievement than a climatic one<\/a>. Its 2030 pledges leave unresolved how to <a href=\"http:\/\/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com\/2016\/10\/17\/todays-climate-progress-and-tomorrows-climate-challenges\/\" target=\"_blank\">cut emissions of carbon dioxide essentially to zero<\/a> in the second half of the century in a world heading toward 9 billion or more people seeking decent lives.<\/p>\n<p>That plunge in emissions is necessary because unlike most other pollutants, carbon dioxide from fuel burning stays in circulation for centuries, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/10\/30\/business\/worldbusiness\/30energy.html\" target=\"_blank\">building in the atmosphere<\/a> like unpaid credit-card debt.<\/p>\n<p>The real risk for climate change in a Trump presidency, according to close to a dozen experts interviewed for this story, lies less in impacts on specific policies like Obama\u2019s Clean Power Plan and more in the realm of shifts in America\u2019s position in international affairs.<\/p>\n<p>Even if he doesn\u2019t formally pull out of the climate treaty process, Trump could, for example, cancel payments pledged by the United States to a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.greenclimate.fund\/projects\/portfolio\" target=\"_blank\">Green Climate Fund<\/a> set up in 2010 to help the poorest developing countries build resilience to climate hazards and develop clean-energy systems.<\/p>\n<p>President Obama has already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bna.com\/us-makes-500-n57982068259\/\" target=\"_blank\">paid in $500 million<\/a> of the $3 billion commitment, with another $200 million potentially paid before he leaves office next month. Environmentalists last week <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2016\/dec\/21\/petition-calls-for-barack-obama-to-fulfil-green-climate-fund-pledge\" target=\"_blank\">pressed in an open letter<\/a> for the full amount to be paid before Trump takes office.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the U.S. walks from its commitment, I would think it would be difficult\u00a0for the other OECD countries to sustain donations, and if those donations are not sustained,\u00a0developing countries will focus on growth as opposed to low carbon growth,\u201d said Henry Lee, a Harvard scholar working in and studying climate policy for decades.<\/p>\n<p>But in international affairs, Trump and his proposed secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, the Exxon chairman, will confront a world of intertwined interests in which climate change has moved from being an inconvenient environmental side issue in the early 1990s to a keystone focal point now, said Andrew Light, a <a href=\"http:\/\/ippp.gmu.edu\/andrew-light\" target=\"_blank\">George Mason University professor<\/a>\u00a0focused on climate policy.<\/p>\n<p>Light, who served on Obama administration negotiating teams in the run-up to the Paris accord, said such intertwined interests will be thrust upon the Trump administration starting this spring and summer in venues like the annual Group of 7 and Group of 20 meetings of the globe\u2019s most powerful countries.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThose groups have committed to action using very strong climate and energy language,\u201d he said. \u201cThe way we got so many leaders to come to Paris and make this happen and ended up getting an even more ambitious agreement than we expected was by breaking climate diplomacy out of its silo \u2014 and making it sort of a peer issue to questions like trade and security. In this world you can\u2019t just walk away from all this stuff.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Given how Trump appears to be relishing his position as a wild card and a self-described master of the deal, it\u2019s still impossible to say what will unfold starting January 20.<\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/notes\/2016\/12\/this-is-what-the-resistance-sounds-like\/510899\/\" target=\"_blank\">a blistering speech<\/a> to thousands of earth scientists in San Francisco earlier this month, California Gov. Jerry Brown vowed to fight Trump in the near term using that state\u2019s influence on everything from automobile standards to the national laboratories, which are managed by the University of California system.<\/p>\n<p>But he also accurately <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/kWSgncpqWtE?t=11m55s\" target=\"_blank\">described the climate challenge<\/a> for what it is: \u201cThis is not a battle of one day or one election. This is a long-term slog into the future.\u201d<script src=\"http:\/\/pixel.propublica.org\/pixel.js\" async=\"\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump, who has called climate change a hoax, has frightened many with his embrace of fossil fuels. What\u2019s truly scary, scientists and others say, is how much larger the problem is than one American president.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":72372,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[284,147,116],"class_list":["post-263057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=263057"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/263057\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=263057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=263057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=263057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}