{"id":2617,"date":"2007-12-07T19:50:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-08T01:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/chavezs-future-uncertain-as-he-lines-up-behind-udall\/"},"modified":"2007-12-07T19:50:00","modified_gmt":"2007-12-08T01:50:00","slug":"chavezs-future-uncertain-as-he-lines-up-behind-udall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/chavezs-future-uncertain-as-he-lines-up-behind-udall\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u00e1vez’s future uncertain as he lines up behind Udall"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Excitement and a sense of inevitability characterized the crowd that showed up to hear Tom Udall<\/a> announce his U.S. Senate run in Las Cruces<\/a> last week. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The excitement came from Udall supporters and other Democrats who sensed a real opportunity to pick up a Senate seat held by a Republican for more than three decades. The sense of inevitability came from the few supporters of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Ch\u00e1vez<\/a> who attended the event to gauge reaction.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> was, after all, a place where Ch\u00e1vez expected to do quite well. But Udall\u2019s announcement tour boldly hit Hispanic Democratic strongholds throughout the state, and many Democrats in Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> began to see the writing on the wall when at least 50 people showed up to hear Udall.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s going to win,\u201d one longtime Democrat told me.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cCh\u00e1vez doesn\u2019t stand a chance,\u201d another said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Similar crowds greeted Udall at other stops. The energy behind Udall\u2019s candidacy seemed to confirm polls that repeatedly showed him as much stronger than Ch\u00e1vez against both Republicans seeking their party\u2019s nomination for Senate<\/st1:city>, U.S.<\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place> Reps. Steve Pearce<\/a> and Heather Wilson<\/a>. While Ch\u00e1vez has been fairly even with both Republicans in polls, Udall has been 15-18 points ahead of both.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Because of that, many I spoke with this evening weren\u2019t surprised by the mayor\u2019s announcement that he\u2019s dropping out of the Senate race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Not one to shy away from a fight<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

However, some were surprised by the announcement. Ch\u00e1vez had vowed for weeks to stay in the race despite the poll numbers and heavy pressure from Democrats in Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> to get out of the race and clear the way for Udall. Ch\u00e1vez told me before Udall entered the race that a primary against the congressman was \u201ca challenge I\u2019d not shy away from.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Former Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> City Council Martin Heinrich<\/a>, who is running for Congress, said he was surprised by Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s a very tough guy who doesn\u2019t shy away from a fight, so I am surprised that he did it,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In recent weeks, Ch\u00e1vez had been picking fights with Udall, calling him too liberal to win the race and hitting the congressman hard over his support of proposed budget cuts at the state\u2019s two national laboratories. Udall was facing the same attacks from Pearce and Wilson, leading some to accuse the mayor of carrying water for the GOP.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There wasn\u2019t a hint of the negativity in the statement Ch\u00e1vez released tonight.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is crucial to the future of New Mexico<\/st1:state> and this country that a Democrat become the next U.S.<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> senator,\u201d he said. \u201cA hotly contested primary, as this one certainly could be, would likely dramatically weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

He also pledged his support for Udall\u2019s Senate bid. The Udall campaign could not be reached for comment.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

What\u2019s next for Ch\u00e1vez?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s campaign made its first public mistake shortly after he entered the race in October when it released a list of members of his finance committee that included people who said they never agreed to serve<\/a> on the committee. At that point, many Democrats began wondering whether Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s organization had the strength and experience to compete against tough opponents and survive the constant pressure to drop out of the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s attempts to reach out to the liberal wing of his party fell on deaf ears. Progressives in Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> like Republican councilors better than the mayor.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So what\u2019s next for Ch\u00e1vez?<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cI will work tirelessly to help Democrats get elected throughout our great State of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and our nation,\u201d he said in the statement released this evening. \u201cAs mayor, I have many new, exciting programs that I want to bring to fruition. I want to spend my remaining time in the mayor\u2019s office being the very best mayor possible for all of the citizens of my home town.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s current mayoral term ends in 2009. A campaign law placing term limits on the city\u2019s elected officials has already been tossed out as it relates to council candidates, and Ch\u00e1vez would likely be successful in a challenge of the law if he wanted to reject term limits and seek re-election.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But would he want to do that? A day before news broke of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici\u2019s<\/a> retirement in October, Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> voters soundly defeated all Ch\u00e1vez-backed candidates and referenda in the city election. His power is significantly diminished.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Some will push him to run for the First Congressional District seat being vacated by Wilson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, but I\u2019ve confirmed that Ch\u00e1vez has no plan to do that. He has said all along he isn\u2019t interested in serving two-year terms in the polarized House.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

He could try to rejoin the 2010 gubernatorial race, but Ch\u00e1vez would have to start over. He formed an exploratory committee earlier this year and began raising money for the race, but he had to disband the state committee and return the money when he entered the Senate race. It would be difficult to restart the state campaign from scratch.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In addition, a September Albuquerque Journal<\/a> poll found Ch\u00e1vez facing a 20-point deficit against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish<\/a> in a gubernatorial primary. Perhaps revealing what was to come in the Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> election, Denish even bested Ch\u00e1vez in the city he leads 54-29 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez and his campaign aren\u2019t talking about the mayor\u2019s future plans. Questions went unanswered this evening.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

New dynamic in Senate race<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s decision doesn\u2019t quite clear the Democratic field for Udall, as alternative media publisher and editor Leland Lehrman<\/a> is making a longshot bid for the party\u2019s nomination. But it most likely makes the road ahead very easy for Udall through the June primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Pearce and Wilson will duke it out in what will be the most closely watched primary contest in the state. Udall now has the happy position of raising money and spreading a positive message throughout the primary season while the two Republicans spend their money battling each other. If the GOP primary race turns nasty, it could be even more difficult for the successful but potentially damaged candidate to defeat Udall next November.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Senate Democrats already had their focus on Domenici\u2019s seat, and they\u2019re even more optimistic now about their prospects of taking it from Republicans. With Udall leading Pearce and Wilson in the polls, both Republicans will have to double their efforts if they\u2019re to have a shot at winning in November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Excitement and a sense of inevitability characterized the crowd that showed up to hear Tom Udall announce his U.S. Senate run in Las Cruces last week. The excitement came from Udall supporters and other Democrats who sensed a real opportunity to pick up a Senate seat held by a Republican for more than three decades. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2617"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2617\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2617"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2617"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2617"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}