{"id":2593,"date":"2007-12-04T09:27:00","date_gmt":"2007-12-04T15:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/guv-climbs-in-n-h-and-national-polls-falls-in-iowa\/"},"modified":"2007-12-04T09:27:00","modified_gmt":"2007-12-04T15:27:00","slug":"guv-climbs-in-n-h-and-national-polls-falls-in-iowa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/12\/guv-climbs-in-n-h-and-national-polls-falls-in-iowa\/","title":{"rendered":"Guv climbs in N.H. and national polls, falls in Iowa"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>After surging in polls in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire for a couple of weeks, Gov. Bill Richardson\u2019s<\/a> support in national polls is climbing, and he continues to climb in polls in the Granite<\/st1:placename> State<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place>. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

However, his support in recent, independent polls in the all-important state of Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> has taken a dip in the last week, threatening any gains he\u2019s making anywhere else.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Last Wednesday, Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s Real Clear Politics Average of recent polls in Iowa<\/a> was 9.8 percent. It was 8.5 percent in recent polls in New Hampshire<\/a>. Today, his average is 8.3 percent in Iowa<\/st1:state> \u2013 down 1.5 percent \u2013 and 10.3 percent in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> \u2013 up 1.8 percent from a week ago.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In national polls<\/a>, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s average today is 4.1 percent, propelling him back on to the list of candidates whose national average Real Clear Politics is tracking for the first time since his national average fell below 3 percent several weeks ago.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But what matters most is Iowa<\/st1:state>, whose Jan. 3 caucus will create momentum going into the Jan. 8 primary in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and all subsequent contests. Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support varies wildly in recent Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> polls. It\u2019s incredibly difficult to obtain accurate poll numbers in a state that holds a caucus instead of a primary.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

His worst showing is in an American Research Group<\/a> poll that places him at 4 percent and in fifth place, behind the three frontrunners and Joe Biden<\/a>, who is at 8 percent. However, most recent Iowa<\/st1:state> polls place Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> at between 9 and 11 percent and solidly in fourth place, and it\u2019s possible the ARG poll is an anomaly.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s campaign sent a letter to supporters on Friday stating that its internal polling had the governor at 15 percent and Hillary Clinton<\/a>, Barack Obama<\/a> and John Edwards<\/a> statistically tied \u201cin the low 20s.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But that\u2019s not in line with what independent polls are showing. The trend in Iowa<\/st1:state> is that Obama has surged in the last couple of weeks to take a 0.3 percent lead over Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> in the average of recent polls. In Iowa<\/st1:state>, he\u2019s at 27.5 percent to Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s 27.2 percent. Edwards\u2019 average of recent polls in Iowa<\/st1:state> is 22.3 percent, and Biden\u2019s average is 4.7 percent \u2013 3.6 percent behind Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That trend has many rethinking the assumption that Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is the frontrunner for the Democratic Party\u2019s nomination. In fact, her own campaign appears to be worried, having launched an attack on Obama in recent days and sending an e-mail to supporters acknowledging the \u201cdead heat\u201d in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In New Hampshire, Richardson remains 5 points behind and within striking distance of Edwards, but both have climbed in recent polls while Clinton\u2019s support has dipped and Obama\u2019s has stagnated. Currently, Clinton<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> leads with an average in recent polls of 34.2 percent to Obama\u2019s 22.5 percent and Edwards\u2019 15.3 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A vice presidential offer?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> remains unlikely to win the nomination, but it\u2019s still too early to count him out. The reality, however, is that placing third or better in either state will be difficult for the governor if the poll numbers hold up. Richardson<\/st1:city> has said he has to place third or better in Iowa<\/st1:state> or New Hampshire<\/st1:state><\/st1:place>, and recently said he will have to think hard about whether he will stay in the race if that doesn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Speculation is again spreading that he might be interested in the vice presidential nomination after a forum in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> this weekend. At the event, Richardson<\/st1:city> asked Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, \u201cDon\u2019t you think governors make good presidents?\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

She quickly responded with, \u201cWell, Bill, I think they also make good vice presidents.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> was left speechless, the New York Daily News<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Was that an offer? Clinton<\/st1:city> has to be getting desperate as she falls to second place in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>. Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s recent surge in Iowa<\/st1:state> coincided with the start of Clinton<\/st1:city>\u2019s dip in the polls, so it\u2019s reasonable to assume at least some of her lost support went to Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> continues to say he isn\u2019t interested in being vice president. Does anyone really believe he wouldn\u2019t at least seriously consider it if offered?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After surging in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire for a couple of weeks, Gov. Bill Richardson\u2019s support in national polls is climbing, and he continues to climb in polls in the Granite State. However, his support in recent, independent polls in the all-important state of Iowa has taken a dip in the last week, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2593\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}