{"id":2441,"date":"2007-10-29T13:49:00","date_gmt":"2007-10-29T19:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/10\/polls-indicate-that-guvs-presidential-bid-is-in-trouble\/"},"modified":"2007-10-29T13:49:00","modified_gmt":"2007-10-29T19:49:00","slug":"polls-indicate-that-guvs-presidential-bid-is-in-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/10\/polls-indicate-that-guvs-presidential-bid-is-in-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls indicate that guv’s presidential bid is in trouble"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>With no more than 66 days until the first presidential nominating contest, Gov. Bill Richardson\u2019s<\/a> presidential campaign appears to be in trouble, at least if poll numbers are any indication. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In recent weeks, Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support in polls in the critical states of Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and in national surveys has dropped. The dip has coincided with major advertising blitzes by frontrunners Hillary Clinton<\/a> and Barack Obama<\/a>, but also with a rise in the polls by some other second-tier Democratic candidates.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

At this point, Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s frequently cited status as the leader of the second tier of Democratic presidential candidates isn\u2019t certain.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Consider these facts:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 On Oct. 1, Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s Real Clear Politics average<\/a> of recent polls in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> was 10.8 percent. It has fallen in four weeks to 7.8 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 On Sept. 27, Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s Real Clear Politics average<\/a> of recent polls in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> was 9 percent. Today it\u2019s 7.4 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 After Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s surge in the polls in the late spring and early summer, Real Clear Politics added him to the list of candidates whose status the site tracks in recent national polls<\/a>, recognizing his solid fourth-place status. His average climbed above 4 percent some weeks, but generally stayed at around 4 percent. Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s average fell below 3 percent last week, and Real Clear Politics quit including him in its national poll tracking.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

More bad news<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

You want more? There is more:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 A new University of Iowa poll<\/a> of likely caucus goers in that state, released today, has Clinton at 28.9 percent, Obama at 26.6 percent, John Edwards<\/a> at 20 percent and Richardson at 7.2 percent. For Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, it\u2019s a climb of about four points since the university\u2019s August poll. It\u2019s a climb of about seven points for Obama. Edwards fell six points, and Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> fell 2.2 points.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Perhaps most significant for Richardson is the fact that Joe Biden<\/a>, who registered at less than 1 percent in the group\u2019s August poll, came in at 5.3 percent in the poll released today. The 1.9-percent difference between Biden and Richardson is well within the 5.5-percent margin of error in the survey of 306 likely Democratic caucus goers.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Biden was recently added to the list of candidates Real Clear Politics is tracking in Iowa<\/st1:state>, and his average in recent polls today is 5 percent \u2013 only 2.4 percent behind Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 The newest Rasmussen Reports poll<\/a> of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, released Saturday, has Clinton at 38 percent, Obama at 22 percent, Edwards at 14 percent and Richardson at 7 percent. The most significant development in the poll is that Dennis Kucinich<\/a> is tied with Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> at 7 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The last Rasmussen Reports poll in New Hampshire<\/st1:state>, released Sept. 18, had Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> at 11 percent, so he\u2019s fallen four points. Kucinich wasn\u2019t even named in the group\u2019s release<\/a> about its September poll. Edwards\u2019 support hasn\u2019t climbed since the September poll. Obama\u2019s has climbed five points, and Clinton<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>\u2019s has climbed two points.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u2022 Here\u2019s a rundown of the most recent national polls: Rasmussen Reports<\/a> has Richardson at less than 3 percent, FOX News<\/a> has him at 2 percent, a Los Angeles Times\/Bloomberg poll<\/a> has him at 2 percent, and CBS News<\/a> and USA Today<\/a> didn\u2019t even include him in recent polls.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Still more<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There\u2019s another situation that has yet to play out that could be bad for the Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> campaign. Iowa Democrats have finally set the date<\/a> of their caucuses for Jan. 3. That\u2019s 66 days from today. But New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> hasn\u2019t set the date for its primary. It could be Jan. 8. It could be in December.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A December primary in New Hampshire<\/st1:state> would be bad news for Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>. Though that state has been his secondary focus, he has put all his hopes on placing third or better in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and spent the bulk of his money there. If he\u2019s creamed in New Hampshire<\/st1:state> first, his efforts in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> may not matter when caucuses are held there.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

What\u2019s next?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> surged in the polls until about June 30. Then his poll numbers in Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> stagnated until roughly the end of September, when the current drop began. Meanwhile, other candidates are climbing in the polls.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t the ideal time to have to shake up a campaign, but it appears Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> needs something major to happen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With no more than 66 days until the first presidential nominating contest, Gov. Bill Richardson\u2019s presidential campaign appears to be in trouble, at least if poll numbers are any indication. In recent weeks, Richardson\u2019s support in polls in the critical states of Iowa and New Hampshire and in national surveys has dropped. The dip has […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2441\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}