{"id":22842,"date":"2010-10-26T15:47:49","date_gmt":"2010-10-26T21:47:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=22842"},"modified":"2010-10-27T08:57:45","modified_gmt":"2010-10-27T14:57:45","slug":"barela-leads-heinrich-by-2-in-internal-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/10\/barela-leads-heinrich-by-2-in-internal-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Barela leads Heinrich by 2 in internal poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_19928\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19928\" title=\"BarelaHeinrich\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/BarelaHeinrich.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"221\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Republican <a href=\"http:\/\/jonbarela.com\/\">Jon Barela<\/a> is leading Democratic incumbent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.martinheinrich.com\">Martin Heinrich<\/a> in the 1st Congressional District race by 2 points, according to an internal poll released today by Barela\u2019s campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Barela leads 49 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 1 percent refusing to state their preference, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/Documents\/1026BarelaPoll.pdf\">the polling memo<\/a> released by the Barela campaign.<\/p>\n<p>The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Sunday and Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019ve said from the beginning that this was going to be one of the most competitive races in the country, and with one week to go, these numbers prove exactly that,\u201d Barela said in a news release.<\/p>\n<p>The Heinrich campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n<p>Barela\u2019s poll is the first of the race released since early October, when Heinrich led in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/10\/journal-poll-heinrich-leading-but-turnout-could-change-things\/\">an independent poll<\/a> by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent.<\/p>\n<p>Barela\u2019s poll comes as Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has moved the 1st District race from being ranked as \u201cleans Democrat\u201d to <a href=\"http:\/\/rothenbergpoliticalreport.com\/ratings\/house\">\u201ctoss-up\/tilt Democrat.\u201d<\/a> Politico recently ranked the race as the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/stories\/1010\/43746.html\">seventh-hottest<\/a> U.S. House contest in the nation.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The race certainly has heated up. With the exception of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/07\/poll-raises-questions-but-it%E2%80%99s-clear-that-cd1-race-is-hot\/\">one rogue poll<\/a> released in July, polls of the race have shown Heinrich leading, but the race has definitely become more competitive in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>According to Barela\u2019s poll:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Republican leads by a wider margin of six points \u2013 52 percent to 46 percent \u2013 among voters who rated their interest in the race as being an 8, 9 or 10 on a scale of 1-10.<\/li>\n<li>Some 75 percent of Republicans surveyed rate their interest as a \u201c10,\u201d while only 59 percent of Democrats rate their interest that high.<\/li>\n<li>Republican gubernatorial candidate <a href=\"http:\/\/www.susanamartinez2010.com\">Susana Martinez<\/a> leads Democrat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dianedenish.com\">Diane Denish<\/a> in the 1st District by 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bottom line about the 1st District race, from the Barela poll memo authored by Public Opinion Strategies\u2019 Nicole McCleskey:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThis very well could be New Mexico\u2019s November surprise. With voter enthusiasm in his corner, Barela looks to have an advantage heading down the home stretch.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Update, 9:55 p.m.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Heinrich campaign released this statement from Manager Alan Packman:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWhile Jon Barela continues to line his pockets with money from big oil and the out of state special interests who want to buy this election, Martin is working day and night on behalf of the people of central New Mexico \u2013 putting their interests ahead of the special interests.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UPDATED: Republican Jon Barela is leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich in the 1st Congressional District race by 2 points, according to an internal poll released today by Barela\u2019s campaign.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,116],"class_list":["post-22842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}