{"id":2212,"date":"2007-09-10T09:42:00","date_gmt":"2007-09-10T15:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/09\/poll-gives-denish-a-20-point-lead-over-chavez\/"},"modified":"2007-09-10T09:42:00","modified_gmt":"2007-09-10T15:42:00","slug":"poll-gives-denish-a-20-point-lead-over-chavez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/09\/poll-gives-denish-a-20-point-lead-over-chavez\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll gives Denish a 20-point lead over Ch\u00e1vez"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Lt. Gov. Diane Denish<\/a> has a huge lead in the race to be the Democratic Party\u2019s 2010 gubernatorial nominee, according to a poll released today by the Al<\/a>buquerque Journal<\/a>. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Yes, the primary election is almost three years away, and a lot could and will likely change before then, but the poll is still bad news for Albuquerque Mayor Martin Ch\u00e1vez<\/a>, as is places him 20 points behind Denish. Fifty percent of Democrats surveyed picked Denish to be the nominee, while 30 percent picked Ch\u00e1vez and 20 percent were undecided.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez told the Journal the numbers are \u201cremarkable\u201d because \u201cshe\u2019s been campaigning full time for almost a year and I\u2019m not even a candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish has already declared her candidacy. She said in Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> recently that she has raised $1.5 million. But, though he hasn\u2019t declared himself a candidate, Ch\u00e1vez has set up an exploratory committee and has also been raising money. Both have been traveling the state, and have found reasons to make several trips each to Las Cruces<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> in recent months.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Still, Denish has been more active and raised more money, even though it\u2019s not really accurate to say she has been campaigning full time. Were Ch\u00e1vez to become more active in the race, he would likely gain some ground, but 20 points is a large deficit.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The unknowns<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a simple explanation for Denish\u2019s popularity. She\u2019s the No. 2 to a governor who was re-elected last year with 69 percent of the vote. New Mexicans, and Democrats especially, are happy with the state of affairs in New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, and probably view a Denish administration as a continuation of that.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish is also getting a chance to prove herself right now, since she\u2019s acting governor almost all the time while Bill Richardson<\/a> campaigns for president.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A number of factors, however, could completely change this race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish might become governor before 2010 if Richardson<\/st1:city> leaves to Washington<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, giving her an even greater edge \u2013 or an opportunity to screw up before the election. Even if she doesn\u2019t become governor before 2010, she\u2019s going to be running the show for much of next year\u2019s legislative session, giving voters a chance to see her in action.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1vez might decide against getting in the race, in the end, though most politicos believe he\u2019s in it for the long haul. Ch\u00e1vez also has to decide in the coming months whether to seek another term as mayor in 2009, only to leave the office early into a new term if he\u2019s elected governor. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Other candidates will likely jump in the race. A Hispanic candidate could make Ch\u00e1vez\u2019s road more difficult. An Anglo candidate could take some of Denish\u2019s support. A rural candidate might snag support outside the city\u2019s population center while Denish and Ch\u00e1vez battle for Albuquerque\/Santa Fe votes.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

More poll numbers and analysis<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But a rural candidate might have a hard time, the poll reveals, as Denish\u2019s strongest support comes from the state\u2019s east side.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish has support of 60 percent of Anglos and 40 percent of Hispanics, while Ch\u00e1vez has the support of 41 percent of Hispanics and 19 percent of Anglos. Denish even bested Ch\u00e1vez in Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, where she had 54 percent of support and he had 29 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Brian Sanderoff, whose company Research & Polling Inc.<\/a> conducted the survey, said Ch\u00e1vez has to win Albuquerque<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>, but may be hampered by a number of recent controversies there. Ch\u00e1vez told the Journal he has \u201cone of those jobs where you actually have to do things,\u201d while \u201cthe lieutenant governor has a job that I think she would even concede doesn\u2019t require a lot of heavy lifting. Mayors make real decisions and if a mayor is doing his or her job, somebody is probably getting offended.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish told the newspaper she\u2019s \u201cbeen working to bring people together who disagree on issues. And I think the issues I have been working on \u2013 education, health care, job creation \u2013 appeal to people across the board.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Denish\u2019s campaign immediately sought to capitalize on the new poll, sending an e-mail to supporters stating that \u201cThe race is still a long way away, and we know that we cannot take anything for granted, which is why Diane is working hard every day to make life better for all New Mexicans. \u2026 We know that polls go up and polls go down and Diane certainly will not rest just because of strong poll numbers, which is why we continue to need your help.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The survey of 407 registered Democrats who frequently vote was conducted Tuesday-Thursday and has a margin of error of 5 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has a huge lead in the race to be the Democratic Party\u2019s 2010 gubernatorial nominee, according to a poll released today by the Albuquerque Journal. Yes, the primary election is almost three years away, and a lot could and will likely change before then, but the poll is still bad news […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}