![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/06\/Martinez-Denish1.jpg\" "\\"Martinez,")
<\/a>Susana Martinez (left, courtesy photo) and Diane Denish (photo by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n
Martinez leads Denish<\/h3>\n
For a Republican in a state largely controlled by Democrats, Martinez is in a good place. With just over nine weeks until Election Day, a weekend Albuquerque Journal poll<\/a> had her leading Democrat Diane Denish<\/a> by 6 percentage points.<\/p>\n Martinez\u2019s lead of 45 percent to 39 percent in the Journal poll came at the same time that a Rasmussen Reports poll<\/a> found Martinez leading by 5 points \u2013 48 percent to 43 percent \u2013 with 3 percent undecided.<\/p>\n The difference in the Journal poll is that 16 percent of those surveyed remained undecided. The poll of 942 likely voters was conducted between Aug. 23 and 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.<\/p>\n Denish put the spotlight on those 16 percent in a fundraising e-mail.<\/p>\n \u201cThese voters will determine who our next Governor will be and we have 65 days to get them on our side,\u201d her e-mail states. She added that the Journal pollster, Brian Sanderoff, \u201cgot it right\u201d when he told the Journal the race is still \u201cup in the air.\u201d<\/p>\n Martinez also acknowledged in her own fundraising e-mail that the race is far from over.<\/p>\n \u201cRecent polls confirm my vision and message of bold change is resonating with voters all across New Mexico\u2026 but we are still a long way out from Election Day,\u201d her fundraising e-mail stated.<\/p>\n Many had expected Martinez\u2019s lead to be larger, perhaps 8-10 points, so while her lead is impressive and will be difficult for Denish to overcome, it\u2019s not as daunting as some Democrats feared.<\/p>\n Still, Martinez\u2019s lead is solid. The Journal poll found that she\u2019s snagging the support of one in five Democrats, including one in five Hispanic Democrats; has locked up the GOP vote; and is leading among independents \u2013 though 29 percent of those not registered as Republicans or Democrats remain undecided. Martinez leads among men, Anglos and voters over 50.<\/p>\n \u201cPolitically, it\u2019s a very good place to be,\u201d Sanderoff said of Martinez. He added that Denish needs to reverse the \u201cslippage of crossover Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n Denish is fighting against a conservative state and national mood and a successful attempt to tie her to Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a>, who had a dismal approval rating in the Journal poll of 33 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n Still, Sanderoff said, there\u2019s \u201cnothing in the poll that says this is all over.\u201d And the polls of the congressional races, which both lean in the opposite direction, may help reveal why.<\/p>\n Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich (courtesy photos)<\/p><\/div>\n In the portion of the larger Journal poll conducted in the 1st Congressional District, the likely voters surveyed gave Heinrich a 47 percent to 41 percent lead<\/a> over Republican Jon Barela<\/a>, with 12 percent of voters undecided. The Journal said the 1st District poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.<\/p>\n \u201cThe good news for Heinrich is that he\u2019s ahead,\u201d the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying. \u201cThe bad news is that he is the incumbent, and Jon Barela is just now getting himself known.\u201d<\/p>\n Sanderoff said some \u201cmight have expected a larger lead for the incumbent.\u201d But other polls have already confirmed a tight race. In fact, last month a poll showed Barela leading by 6 points<\/a>.<\/p>\n Heinrich had a strong lead among independents \u2013 45 percent to Barela\u2019s 31 percent \u2013 which is a key statistic that\u2019s huge for Heinrich. But Barela should not be discouraged, Sanderoff was quoted by the Journal as saying.<\/p>\n \u201cHe is down 6 points at a time when he is just beginning the awareness-and-persuasion part of his campaign,\u201d Sanderoff said. \u201cIt\u2019s a not a bad place to be in, given the mood of the nation and the fact that it\u2019s still August.\u201d<\/p>\n Heinrich led Barela among Hispanics 54 percent to 33 percent. Sanderoff said getting a third of those voters \u2013 often Democrats \u2013 is \u201cpretty good\u201d for Barela.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cNeedless to say, Martin Heinrich cannot take this race for granted,\u201d the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying.<\/p>\n Steve Pearce, left, and Harry Teague (Photos by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n The biggest surprise from the Journal polls is Teague\u2019s narrow lead over Republican Steve Pearce<\/a>. In a poll with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, Teague led 45 percent to 42 percent<\/a>. This is anyone\u2019s race, but many expected that Pearce, not Teague, would have the slight advantage.<\/p>\n Thirteen percent of those surveyed remain undecided, the Journal poll found. And independents were almost evenly split between Teague and Pearce. The latter is huge for Teague, given the national mood that leans to the right, Sanderoff was quoted as saying.<\/p>\n \u201cIn so many districts across the nation, independents are skewing Republican, and here we see that they are splitting pretty evenly among Teague and Pearce,\u201d the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying. \u201cIt\u2019s fair to say independents will be critical to the outcome of the election. They can be the deciding factor in a close race.\u201d<\/p>\n Teague\u2019s campaign was quick to tout the poll results.<\/p>\n \u201cThis poll shows that Harry Teague has proven to be the kind of representative people in southern New Mexico want,\u201d Campaign Manager Dominic Gabello said. \u201c\u2026 We are encouraged by these poll numbers, but Harry is taking nothing for granted.\u00a0This is still a tough race and Harry is going to keep doing what he\u2019s been doing, working hard for the people and communities he represents.\u201d<\/p>\n Sanderoff was quoted by the Journal as saying that Teague \u201csurprised the world two years ago when he won in a Republican district,\u201d and \u201cNow we see that he is still hanging in there against a former incumbent in a conservative year in a conservative district.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBasically, we have an incumbent running against a former incumbent \u2014 both of them are well-known \u2014 and the fact that Teague has an ever-so slight lead is encouraging for him,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n I would have guessed before these polls that Martinez was leading by 8-10 points, Heinrich was leading by 3-5 points and Pearce was leading by 3-5 points. But Sanderoff\u2019s polls for the Journal are considered the best among independent polls of New Mexico political races, and his new surveys appear to reveal that the shift to the right isn\u2019t quite as strong in New Mexico \u2013 at least for the moment \u2013 as I and some others thought.<\/p>\n That\u2019s good news for Democrats.<\/p>\n Martinez\u2019s support among Democrats \u2013 and particularly Hispanic Democrats \u2013 is the main reason she\u2019s leading, but the support of those crossover voters may be soft. Heinrich\u2019s lead is tenuous because Barela is just becoming known, and Heinrich could lose it if he doesn\u2019t define Barela before Barela defines himself. Teague\u2019s lead could be due in part to how hard he\u2019s worked \u2013 he\u2019s been a tireless holder of town-hall and constituent meetings \u2013 and might also be due to the fact that Pearce is just as well known as him and might also be hurt by the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the nation.<\/p>\n The polls reveal a clear lead for Martinez \u2013 for now \u2013 as well as a lead for Heinrich that could evaporate as Barela becomes better known and a toss-up in the 2nd District that leans surprisingly and ever-so-slightly in Teague\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n Anything could happen in the next nine weeks. All three races are up for grabs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" New polls of the governor\u2019s race and the 1st and 2nd congressional district contests suggest that the mood in New Mexico isn\u2019t as bad for Democrats as many, including me, previously thought. The bottom line: All three races are still up in the air.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,107,116],"class_list":["post-21016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-roundhouse","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21016\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Martinez is in \u2018a very good place to be\u2019<\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/07\/BarelaHeinrich.jpg\" "\\"BarelaHeinrich\\"")
<\/a>Heinrich leads Barela<\/h3>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/10\/Teague-Pearce-300x207.jpg\" "\\"Teague")
<\/a>Teague leads Pearce<\/h3>\n
What it means<\/h3>\n