{"id":20655,"date":"2010-08-18T23:46:37","date_gmt":"2010-08-19T05:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=20655"},"modified":"2010-08-19T13:21:04","modified_gmt":"2010-08-19T19:21:04","slug":"poll-shows-key-state-house-district-leaning-gop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/08\/poll-shows-key-state-house-district-leaning-gop\/","title":{"rendered":"Poll shows key state House district leaning GOP"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Republican state House candidate Nate Gentry<\/p><\/div>\n

A new poll of likely voters in state\u00a0House District 30<\/a> shows that an area of Albuquerque that went to George Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 is leaning back to the right this year.<\/p>\n

The poll, conducted for the campaign of Republican state House candidate Nate Gentry<\/a>, shows Gentry leading Democratic incumbent Karen Giannini<\/a> by nine points, 44 percent to 35 percent, with 20 percent of voters undecided. And in the gubernatorial race, it shows Republican Susana Martinez<\/a> leading Democrat Diane Denish<\/a> by 17 points, 55 percent to 38 percent.<\/p>\n

The poll is important because House District 30 is a historically right-leaning district that went to Obama in 2008 \u2013 a year in which Democrats also took control of every seat in the state\u2019s congressional delegation. The poll adds to the evidence of a shift back to the right in the Albuquerque area that was also seen in a recent survey<\/a> of the 1st Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich<\/a> and Republican challenger Jon Barela<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The House District 30 telephone survey of 250 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, according to the polling memo<\/a>. It has a relatively high margin of error of 6.2 percentage points, but there\u2019s still a clear trend to the right among those surveyed.<\/p>\n

In fact, 69 percent of those surveyed said the Democratic-controlled state is \u201cheaded off on the wrong track,\u201d while 22 percent think the state is heading in the right direction, the polling memo states. Some 57 percent said they view Martinez favorably, while 26 percent view her unfavorably. Denish, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 47 percent.<\/p>\n

More voters in the district are registered Democrat than Republican \u2013 43 percent Democrat to 38 percent Republican \u2013 but that\u2019s further to the right than the overall state registration numbers, which are 50 percent Democrat and 32 percent Republican.<\/p>\n

Bush won the district with 54 percent of the vote in 2004. Obama won it in 2008 with 55 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n

\u2018Very encouraging for the Gentry campaign\u2019<\/h3>\n
\"\"<\/a>

Karen Giannini<\/p><\/div>\n

Many, including me, attribute Giannini\u2019s upset of then-Republican State Rep. Justine Fox-Young in 2008 to the Obama wave that swept the Albuquerque area. In the NMPolitics.net monthly newsletter that goes to qualifying donors<\/a>, I\u2019ve ranked Giannini as the most endangered incumbent in the state this election cycle. The new poll backs that ranking up.<\/p>\n

Gentry\u2019s name recognition in the district is already almost as high as Giannini\u2019s \u2013 33 percent for Gentry to 35 percent for Giannini. And while most voters have no strong opinion of either candidate, Gentry\u2019s favorable\/unfavorable numbers are better \u2013 16 percent favorable and 1 percent unfavorable to Giannini\u2019s 12 percent favorable and 6 percent unfavorable.<\/p>\n

\u201cGentry has already achieved a level playing field in name ID, a critical variable in state house races,\u201d the polling memo states. \u201c\u2026 An early lead for a challenger in this political environment is very encouraging for the Gentry campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Gentry campaign provided the wording of the two ballot questions in the poll:<\/p>\n