{"id":2047,"date":"2007-08-01T11:04:00","date_gmt":"2007-08-01T17:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/08\/guv-at-obamas-heels-in-iowa-edwards-up-in-n-h-poll\/"},"modified":"2007-08-01T11:04:00","modified_gmt":"2007-08-01T17:04:00","slug":"guv-at-obamas-heels-in-iowa-edwards-up-in-n-h-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/08\/guv-at-obamas-heels-in-iowa-edwards-up-in-n-h-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Guv at Obama’s heels in Iowa; Edwards up in N.H. poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a> is within two points of Barack Obama<\/a> in the newest independent poll of likely Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> Democratic caucus goers. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The news is huge for a candidate who recently moved ahead of John Edwards<\/a> and into third place in New Hampshire<\/st1:state> in one poll and, for several weeks, has been gaining ground on the third-place Obama in polls in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It also comes as Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s campaign began airing another clever television advertisement in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But the news isn\u2019t all good for Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> supporters. Another new poll shows Edwards ahead of Richardson<\/st1:city> in New Hampshire<\/st1:state> and Richardson<\/st1:city>\u2019s support at a dismal 2 percent in South Carolina<\/st1:state> and New York<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The new American Research Group poll<\/a> of Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, released today, has Hillary Clinton<\/a> in the lead with 30 percent of the vote, Edwards in second with 21 percent, Obama in third with 15 percent and Richardson in fourth with 13 percent. No other candidate had more than 3 percent, and 15 percent were undecided.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll, conducted Thursday-Monday, surveyed 600 likely Democratic caucus goers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A couple of other interesting facts: Clinton and Edwards both fell between the group\u2019s June survey and this newest poll \u2013 Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> by 2 percent and Edwards by 8 percent. Obama gained 2 percent and Richardson<\/st1:city> gained 8 percent, so the governor is currently experiencing the most positive movement in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A problem for both Obama and Richardson, however, is revealed when the support of registered Democrats is separated from that of independents who said they are likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. It\u2019s not uncommon for independents to register as Democrats or Republicans before elections so they can participate in primaries and caucuses.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Among Democrats, who represented 79 percent of those surveyed, Clinton<\/st1:city>\u2019s support was 33 percent, Edwards\u2019 was 24 percent, Obama\u2019s was 13 percent and Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s was 10 percent. Among independents, who made up 21 percent of those surveyed, Richardson<\/st1:city> has the most support \u2013 25 percent \u2013 while Obama had 21 percent, Clinton<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> had 18 percent and Edwards had 8 percent.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But people who are already Democrats are more likely to vote in the caucuses than those who are independent but say they\u2019ll participate.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Regardless, the Richardson<\/st1:city> campaign sent out a news release today touting the new poll and one released last week that has Richardson<\/st1:city> in third place in Arizona<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and about which I have already written<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cOur campaign continues to gain support. Gov. Richardson is working tirelessly to advance his plan to get all of our troops out of Iraq<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>, leaving no residual forces,\u201d Campaign Manager Dave Contarino said. \u201cHe has the strongest energy plan of any candidate in the race. And he has the experience to turn plans into realities. Americans are responding.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> releases another clever TV ad<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been writing for months<\/a> about the clever television ads Richardson\u2019s campaign has released \u2013 self-deprecating when the goal is to make Richardson seem approachable and highlight his experience, somber when talking about Iraq and care for soldiers. Now he has a new ad airing in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> about his energy plan, and it\u2019s equally well-done.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m Bill Richardson, and on clean energy, a 30-second TV ad isn\u2019t enough time,\u201d Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> says at the beginning of the ad. \u201cBut my Web site can show you why the Sierra club called my plan \u2018much more aggressive.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

He briefly highlights his plan to lower demand for oil by 50 percent in 12 years, raise mileage standards to 50 mpg and reduce greenhouse gases by 80 percent by 2040.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cI approved this message because it won\u2019t be easy, but we\u2019ve relied on foreign oil and paid too much for gas long enough,\u201d Richardson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> concludes.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The ad begins with Richardson<\/st1:city> standing on a hillside, but that video quickly fades into a larger view of Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s campaign Web site, and as he runs through the three points from his energy plan, the screen shifts to a portion of his Web site that highlights each point.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The ad concludes by providing Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s campaign Web address, richardsonforpresident.com<\/a>. You can watch the ad at the end of this posting and learn more about it by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It\u2019s short, but grabs attention and immediately draws interested, potential voters to Richardson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>\u2019s Web site. It\u2019s presented in a way that\u2019s technologically savvy and interesting. Score another point for Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s marketing team.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cAs Iowans learn about Governor Richardson\u2019s plans for clean energy and his record as governor of New Mexico<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> and secretary of energy, we are confident we will continue our steady, upward climb,\u201d Contarino said. \u201cThe latest polls show our campaign continuing to gain support in Iowa<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> and across the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Some bad news for Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Now for the reality check. Richardson<\/st1:city> moved ahead of Edwards in New Hampshire<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> in a poll conducted in mid-July<\/a>. But the newest American Research Group poll<\/a> of likely Democratic primary voters in that state has Edwards with twice the support of Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In the new poll, Clinton and Obama are tied with 31 percent, Edwards is at 14 percent and Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> is at 7 percent. From the group\u2019s June poll, Clinton<\/st1:city>\u2019s support is down 3 percent, Obama\u2019s is up 6 percent, Edwards\u2019 is up 3 percent and Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s is up 1 percent. The poll was conducted the same dates and has the same margin of error as the Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> poll.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The poll that had Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city> ahead of Edwards last month was conducted by a university for a local news outlet, and such polls are generally considered more accurate than the American Research Group polls. This is the first poll to show Edwards climbing in New Hampshire<\/st1:state><\/st1:place> in quite awhile, and I\u2019m not going to believe it\u2019s actually happening until there\u2019s a trend.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Richardson<\/st1:city> continues to focus on Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:state>, so it\u2019s no surprise that new polls in South Carolina<\/a> and New York<\/a> find that he\u2019s insignificant in those states.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The bottom line<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Obama should be worried. Finishing fourth in Iowa<\/st1:place><\/st1:state>, the first contest in the nation, is difficult to overcome. He\u2019s going to have a hard time catching Edwards and Clinton, but it\u2019s critical that he stay ahead of Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The new polls should also have Edwards worried. He\u2019s lost 8 percent in Iowa<\/st1:state> and, though he\u2019s gained a little ground in the newest New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> poll, it only gives him a bit of breathing room. If he can\u2019t regain the lead in Iowa<\/st1:state>, finishing third or fourth in New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> is going to be difficult to overcome.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Overall, Clinton<\/st1:city> remains in the best position, but Richardson<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> has the most upward momentum of any candidate in the race. Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:state> have a way of catapulting candidates to victory and, at his current pace, Richardson<\/st1:city> could be solidly in third place in both Iowa<\/st1:state> and New Hampshire<\/st1:place><\/st1:state> within a few weeks. Only Clinton<\/st1:city>, at this point, has the luxury of ignoring Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>\u2019s newest TV ad:<\/p>\n

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Gov. Bill Richardson is within two points of Barack Obama in the newest independent poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers. The news is huge for a candidate who recently moved ahead of John Edwards and into third place in New Hampshire in one poll and, for several weeks, has been gaining ground on the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}