{"id":199688,"date":"2016-10-20T15:20:05","date_gmt":"2016-10-20T21:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=199688"},"modified":"2016-10-21T12:04:39","modified_gmt":"2016-10-21T18:04:39","slug":"are-more-new-mexicans-voting-this-year-or-are-they-just-voting-earlier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2016\/10\/are-more-new-mexicans-voting-this-year-or-are-they-just-voting-earlier\/","title":{"rendered":"Are more New Mexicans voting this year, or are they just voting earlier?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_199488\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-199488\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-771x494.jpg\" alt=\"Early voting\" width=\"771\" height=\"494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-771x494.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-336x215.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-768x493.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-1170x750.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2-780x500.jpg 780w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.19.16-Voting2.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Heath Haussamen \/ NMPolitics.net<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sign in front of the Do\u00f1a Ana County Government Center on\u00a0Motel Boulevard in Las Cruces reminds people to vote. Several counties are opening new polling locations this weekend.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Lots of New Mexicans have already voted in this year&#8217;s general election, but it&#8217;s too soon to know whether that will lead to increased overall turnout, the state&#8217;s top pollster said.<\/p>\n<p>New Mexico&#8217;s\u00a0higher-than-usual early voting numbers, if they continue through Election Day,\u00a0could mean higher turnout this year than during the last presidential election in 2012. But there&#8217;s also been a recent trend toward viewing an election as a season, rather than a day, which has contributed to increased\u00a0early voting.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It could be a sign of early enthusiasm among some voters,&#8221; Brian Sanderoff of Research &amp; Polling, Inc. in Albuquerque, the pollster, said about this year&#8217;s early turnout.\u00a0&#8220;On the other hand, it could just mean less voting on Election Day.&#8221;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>View the data<\/h3>\n<p>For this article, we used\u00a0data on in-person and absentee voting by county, through the close of business on Tuesday, from the Secretary of State&#8217;s Office. View it here:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.18.16-Early-voting.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">In-person voting<\/a>\u00a0(Turnout calculations in this document were done by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rpinc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Research &amp; Polling, Inc.<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/10.18.16-Absentee-voting.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Absentee voting<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Whatever the case, early turnout has been\u00a0strong statewide, numbers released by the Secretary of State&#8217;s Office indicate. The reasons are varied and may depend on the county-level dynamics.<\/p>\n<p>For example, 10 percent of registered voters in Sierra County had already voted in person by Tuesday. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is expected to do well in that\u00a0conservative, rural county.<\/p>\n<p>And 7.1 percent of registered voters had voted in person in Taos County, a liberal\u00a0stronghold Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is expected to\u00a0win.<\/p>\n<p>State legislative contests and the battle for control of the N.M. House of Representatives, which has led to lots of mailers and other paid media in several areas, could also\u00a0be driving interest in some\u00a0counties.<\/p>\n<p>Turnout as of Tuesday was especially high in the southwestern corner of the state and Los Alamos and Taos counties up north,\u00a0the Secretary of State&#8217;s numbers indicate.<\/p>\n<p>But\u00a0even in counties in the greater Albuquerque metro area, where turnout was lagging behind many other areas\u00a0as of Tuesday, clerks said\u00a0they were\u00a0already seeing better turnout than 2012.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We&#8217;ve never had the numbers this high. It&#8217;s just a steady flow,&#8221; said Sandoval County Clerk Eileen Garbagni. In her county 2.7 percent of registered voters had voted in person as of Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>In Bernalillo County, 0.9 percent of registered voters had voted in person\u00a0by Tuesday.\u00a0But when you add in that county&#8217;s high number of returned absentee ballots, 1.7 percent of registered voters had cast ballots. Those were already\u00a0&#8220;very high numbers by historical Bernalillo standards,&#8221; said\u00a0Maggie Toulouse Oliver, that county&#8217;s clerk.<\/p>\n<p>Garbagni and Oliver\u00a0said their counties will open additional early voting sites on Saturday. Both expect turnout to spike then. Currently, the only polling place in Bernalillo County\u00a0is at the clerk&#8217;s office downtown, and Oliver said many\u00a0voters find it inconvenient to drive there.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We are prepping for big turnout this weekend,&#8221;\u00a0Oliver said.<\/p>\n<h3>High turnout in Southwestern New Mexico<\/h3>\n<p>Southwestern New Mexico had the greatest concentration of counties with turnout that, by percentage of registered voters, stood out. In addition to Sierra County&#8217;s 10 percent, in-person turnout in Grant County was 8.5 percent through Tuesday.\u00a0In Luna County it was 6.5 percent, and in Do\u00f1a Ana County <a href=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2016\/10\/lots-of-voters-especially-dems-turning-out-in-dona-ana-county\/\" target=\"_blank\">it was 5.7 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The clerk in Sierra County, Connie Greer, said she isn&#8217;t\u00a0sure how to explain the\u00a0high turnout. Though many voters in that county historically\u00a0vote early, this year&#8217;s turnout is\u00a0unusually strong, she said.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Greer\u00a0noted the county&#8217;s rural and elderly population and said early voting is a chance for people to get out of their homes. &#8220;What they seem to enjoy is there&#8217;s not a lot of waiting time,&#8221; Greer said.<\/p>\n<p>The nonprofit Conservation Voters New Mexico has two political action committees working to turn out voters around the state for\u00a0candidates it has endorsed &#8212; who this year are all Democrats. That group&#8217;s legislative and political director, Ben Shelton, said\u00a0the high concentration of contested legislative seats in the southwestern corner of the state may be helping drive interest in the election.<\/p>\n<p>Southwestern New Mexico\u00a0has &#8220;some of the most involved, plugged in, passionate voters in the state,&#8221; Shelton said. He mentioned people being engaged because of the\u00a0Gila River diversion project, mining and water issues, and the creation of the Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument.<\/p>\n<p>Voters in and around Do\u00f1a Ana County were largely responsible in 2014 for electing Republican legislative candidates and giving the GOP control of the state House\u00a0for the first time in decades. This year, Democrats are trying\u00a0to take the House back.<\/p>\n<p>Shelton said Do\u00f1a Ana County has a &#8220;bench of candidates&#8221; that is &#8220;deeper than in any other area of the state.&#8221; He mentioned Democratic state legislative candidates Nathan Small, Jeff Steinborn and Angelica Rubio, saying, &#8220;they&#8217;re young, they&#8217;re dynamic, they&#8217;re intelligent, and people are excited about them.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Sanderoff said legislative races can help boost turnout. Those candidates are are\u00a0knocking on doors. In high-profile races, voters are also flooded\u00a0with mailers and other paid media.<\/p>\n<p>Do\u00f1a Ana County Chief Deputy Clerk Scott Krahling also expects turnout\u00a0to spike when the county opens six additional voting centers this weekend. The only polling place thus far has been at the Do\u00f1a Ana County Government Center in west Las Cruces.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We have done outreach throughout the county, so I expect early voting to increase once we open locations in communities that don\u2019t have easy access to our office,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Shelton said control of the state House and the winner of the\u00a0secretary of state&#8217;s race may be decided by voters in\u00a0and around Las Cruces.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The whole state could flip on Do\u00f1a Ana County,&#8221; he\u00a0said.<\/p>\n<h3>Turnout favors Democrats thus far<\/h3>\n<p>Statewide, early voting turnout thus far leans toward Democrats. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sos.state.nm.us\/uploads\/FileLinks\/c2426e22e02d478ca940282b232f0647\/STATEWIDE_SEPT_30_16.PDF\" target=\"_blank\">As of Sept. 30<\/a>, 47 percent of registered voters in New Mexico were\u00a0Democrats, 31 percent were\u00a0Republicans, and the remaining 22 percent\u00a0were\u00a0independents or members of other parties.<\/p>\n<p>But as of Tuesday, 58.6 percent of people who had voted in person were Democrats, while 29.8 percent were Republicans and 11.6 percent were independents or members of other parties.<\/p>\n<p>Deb Haaland,\u00a0chairwoman\u00a0of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, said early voting thus far indicates that &#8220;the Democratic message is resonating with voters across the state.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We\u2019ll continue to work everyday to let voters know what\u2019s at stake in this election and get out the vote for our candidates,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p>More Republicans will vote\u00a0as Election Day approaches, predicted W. Tucker Keene, communications director\u00a0for the Republican Party of New Mexico.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Turnout, especially among Republicans, will increase as we get closer to Election Day and early voting locations expand beyond county clerk&#8217;s offices,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Shelton said\u00a0voting against Trump has been &#8220;a very effective motivator&#8221; for some voters &#8220;to get out there early and get it out of the way.&#8221; But, like Keene, Shelton expects that more Republicans will\u00a0turn out as voting progresses.<\/p>\n<p><em>A prior version of this posting incorrectly referred to Haaland as the executive director, not chairwoman, of the Democratic Party of New Mexico.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The short answer is we don&#8217;t know. But thus far early voting turnout has been high statewide, and it has favored Democrats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":199488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[708,226,107],"class_list":["post-199688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-2016-election","tag-presidential-race","tag-roundhouse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}