{"id":19197,"date":"2010-07-07T08:10:05","date_gmt":"2010-07-07T14:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=19197"},"modified":"2010-07-08T07:58:36","modified_gmt":"2010-07-08T13:58:36","slug":"don%e2%80%99t-count-teague-out-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/07\/don%e2%80%99t-count-teague-out-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t count Teague out, yet"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Heath Haussamen<\/p><\/div>\n

I\u2019ve written plenty<\/a> about how tough a time U.S. Rep. Harry Teague<\/a>, D-N.M., is going to have winning re-election in November. In fact, in NMPolitics.net’s monthly newsletter that goes out to qualifying donors, I\u2019ve ranked him as the second most endangered incumbent in New Mexico this year, behind state Rep. Karen Giannini, D-Albuquerque.<\/p>\n

The situation got worse for Teague last week when Politico told us about a $2.7 million lawsuit<\/a> he and his companies are facing for failing to repay loans on equipment purchases. \u00a0The most important revelation from the article is that Teague\u2019s companies have lost a lot of money. The candidate who pumped $1.5 million of his own money into his campaign in 2008 may not have the resources to do it again.<\/p>\n

Despite all of that, I don\u2019t count Teague out. He has a realistic shot at winning re-election. It\u2019s my view that the race leans toward Teague\u2019s GOP challenger, former U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce<\/a>, but only slightly.<\/p>\n

Pearce is in a good position, but I\u2019ve heard many say things like \u201cTeague is toast,\u201d and I simply don\u2019t believe it. This is a Republican-leaning district. It\u2019s a Republican-leaning year. The GOP has a tested, well-known and personally wealthy candidate who\u2019s loved by the well-financed libertarian wing of his party. Pearce held the seat longer than Teague, which reduces Teague\u2019s incumbency advantage.<\/p>\n

By many conventional measures, perhaps, Pearce should be in a very comfortable position right now.<\/p>\n

But he\u2019s not. Teague has held on in every poll of the race that has been released publicly. In those polls, Teague led by 1 point<\/a>, trailed by 2 points<\/a> and trailed by 4 points<\/a>. In other words, the race is a statistical tie.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Harry Teague<\/p><\/div>\n

How Teague has held on<\/h3>\n

How is Teague hanging on when he\u2019s angered the right with his vote for cap and trade<\/a> and the left with his vote against health care reform<\/a>? Some thoughts:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Many say Teague has the best constituent services of any member in New Mexico\u2019s congressional delegation. He has set up five offices across the 2nd Congressional district. He has been in New Mexico more often than the others. He has held more town-hall and constituent meetings. I\u2019m not saying the others don\u2019t work hard \u2013 they do \u2013 but Teague has been tireless and intentional about putting together constituent services some say rival those of former U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The next point plays off the last: Some Republicans don\u2019t like Pearce because they didn\u2019t see him do anything for their town or area when he was in Congress, but they believe Teague has helped them. These aren\u2019t ideological voters. They\u2019re Republican voters whose choice is based on what someone has done or will do for them. Teague will win some of their votes.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Teague speaks the language of rural New Mexico. He\u2019s personable and talkative. One-on-one conversations are when he\u2019s at his best. He looks uncomfortable in Washington but very comfortable talking with someone in an informal setting in rural New Mexico.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Las Cruces is becoming a larger player in politics. This district is becoming less Republican-leaning because of the progressive awakening that has taken place in Las Cruces in recent years. Conventional wisdom in the 2nd District is slowly changing.<\/p>\n

Martinez may help Teague<\/h3>\n

I want to suggest one other factor that may help Teague: the GOP\u2019s nomination of Do\u00f1a Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez<\/a> for governor. Many progressives feel that Teague hasn\u2019t given them a reason to vote for him on Nov. 2. Diane Denish<\/a>, the Democrats\u2019 candidate for governor, doesn\u2019t necessarily excite them either.<\/p>\n

But progressives who have a strong dislike for Martinez \u2013 and the hard-line stance she\u2019s taken on immigration \u2013 may be inspired to show up to vote against her, especially since she\u2019s from their hometown. While they\u2019re there, expect some of them to vote for Teague, even if they do it begrudgingly.<\/p>\n

Martinez may also inspire others in Las Cruces to vote in larger numbers than usual, and I don\u2019t expect them to be straight-ticket voters. Martinez hasn\u2019t inspired straight-ticket voting in her time as district attorney. She\u2019s won election four times in a Democratic county as a Republican. Moderate independents and Democrats may vote for her instead of Denish but pick Teague over Pearce.<\/p>\n

There are plenty of reasons the race leans slightly in Pearce\u2019s favor, with the national mood and his ability to self-finance his race being at the top of the list. But don\u2019t count Teague out.<\/p>\n

Haussamen bio<\/a> \u2502\u00a0Commentary archives<\/a> \u2502\u00a0Feed<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. Rep. Harry Teague\u2019s troubles are growing. Last week, we learned about a $2.7 million lawsuit he and his companies are facing. But though his opponent, former U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, has a slight advantage in the November election, I don\u2019t count Teague out. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1192,10],"tags":[108,116],"class_list":["post-19197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentary","category-haussamen-columns","tag-2010-election","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19197\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}