{"id":1851,"date":"2007-06-13T11:54:00","date_gmt":"2007-06-13T17:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/06\/could-the-stars-align-against-pearce-next-year\/"},"modified":"2007-06-13T11:54:00","modified_gmt":"2007-06-13T17:54:00","slug":"could-the-stars-align-against-pearce-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/06\/could-the-stars-align-against-pearce-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Could the stars align against Pearce next year?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Albuq<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>uerque<\/st1:city><\/st1:place> pollster Brian Sanderoff<\/a> says the stars would have to align for a Democrat to defeat U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce<\/a> next year. The GOP congressman\u2019s recent fundraising letter makes it appear that he thinks there\u2019s a chance that will happen. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The ideal candidate to take on Pearce, Sanderoff told me in April, would be a strong, moderate Democrat from Las Cruces who can regionalize the race and win GOP votes on the district\u2019s west side. In addition, Pearce would have to face a scandal that challenges his credibility, and the national wave that favored Democrats in 2006 would have to continue. Sanderoff predicted the second will happen.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And he said involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee<\/a>, the fundraising arm of House Democrats, is critical.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Pearce knows that. He sent out a fundraising letter in May asking for help to keep the DCCC out of the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cThey have the funds and power to make a real impact in any race they choose and we need to keep them out of the Second District,\u201d Pearce wrote. \u201cThey are guaranteed to target us unless we make the hurdle too tall to climb.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Two Democrats have entered the 2008 race \u2013 the liberal Al Kissling<\/a>, who Pearce defeated last year, and Do\u00f1a Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley<\/a>, a moderate. Another moderate Democrat, state Rep. Joseph Cervantes<\/a> of Las Cruces<\/st1:city><\/st1:place>, is considering running.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In his letter, Pearce attacked McCamley and Kissling as liberals who would \u201cbe a voice for\u201d House Speaker Nancy Pelosi<\/a>, while calling himself a \u201ccommonsense conservative.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Since he has easily defeated stronger opponents in the past, it\u2019s surprising that Pearce is acknowledging his challengers \u2013 and going negative \u2013 when they still have to battle each other in a primary. That could make him appear weak and help his opponents raise money.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In 2002, Pearce defeated state Sen. John Arthur Smith<\/a> by 12 percent. In 2004, he beat Gary King<\/a> by 22 percent, and many began believing the seat would be his as long as he wanted it.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Last year, Pearce faced his weakest opponent yet \u2013 Kissling, a political newcomer who raised about a tenth of what Pearce raised for the race.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But Kissling did better than King \u2013 winning a little more than 40 percent of the vote \u2013 even though King spent more than $1 million on his race and Kissling spent less than $200,000.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Kissling\u2019s surprising showing, which Sanderoff said was due more to the Democratic wave than his own candidacy, has many thinking Pearce might be vulnerable in 2008.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>All three Democrats have met with DCCC officials this year, but, thus far, it appears that only McCamley is raising the kind of money that might draw the group\u2019s attention. Though he won\u2019t release fundraising totals until he files his first report in July, I\u2019ve heard from a number of Democrats and a couple of Republicans who have given McCamley money.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

In March, Kissling still had debt from his 2006 campaign. His operating expenses exceeded contributions during the first quarter of 2007.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Cervantes has the money to jump into the race later and compete. Unless he does that, or Kissling gets more active soon, McCamley will likely face Pearce next year.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

A version of this article was published today in the Albuquerque Tribune<\/a>. I write a column for the newspaper that runs on the second and fourth Wednesdays of each month.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff says the stars would have to align for a Democrat to defeat U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce next year. The GOP congressman\u2019s recent fundraising letter makes it appear that he thinks there\u2019s a chance that will happen. The ideal candidate to take on Pearce, Sanderoff told me in April, would be a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1851"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1851\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}