{"id":17801,"date":"2010-05-27T01:42:06","date_gmt":"2010-05-27T07:42:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=17801"},"modified":"2010-05-27T09:08:04","modified_gmt":"2010-05-27T15:08:04","slug":"martinez-leading-weh-and-denish-in-new-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/05\/martinez-leading-weh-and-denish-in-new-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Martinez leading Weh and Denish in new polls"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Susana Martinez<\/p><\/div>\n

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Diane Denish<\/a> played down a poll released Wednesday that showed the frontrunner in the Republican primary, Susana Martinez<\/a>, leading her by six points in a potential general-election contest.<\/p>\n

\u201cSusana Martinez has been airing TV ads for weeks, so we take this with a grain of salt,\u201d Denish\u2019s campaign said of the new poll. \u201cWhen New Mexicans hear from both candidates, the choice will be clear. Diane Denish will be a different kind of governor \u2013 someone who stands up for regular families, while Susana Martinez is a failed prosecutor best-known for plea-bargaining drunk drivers and cutting deals with violent felons.”<\/p>\n

The reality, however, is that this is what many Democrats been worried about for some time. Martinez, who was unknown around most of the state until recently, has successfully used her record as Do\u00f1a Ana County\u2019s district attorney to convince voters she\u2019s tough as nails when it comes to criminals<\/a> and to immigration<\/a>, but she has a soft side<\/a> when it comes to victims. So far, people like what they see.<\/p>\n

Martinez has also managed to shape public opinion of Allen Weh<\/a>, Martinez\u2019s closest opponent in the primary \u2013 at least as it relates to immigration<\/a> \u2013 which has contributed to her surge in the primary race. Two weeks ago, Martinez and Weh were statistically tied<\/a>. But on Wednesday, two independent polls showed her with significant leads over Weh.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve already written about the poll conducted for New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan<\/a> that showed Martinez up by 11 points. Later Wednesday, KOB-TV in Albuquerque unveiled a SurveyUSA poll<\/a> that showed Martinez up by 10 points over Weh.<\/p>\n

That poll found Martinez with the support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters to Weh\u2019s 33 percent. Pete Domenici Jr.<\/a> and Doug Turner<\/a> were each at 8 percent and Janice Arnold-Jones<\/a> was at 3 percent.<\/p>\n

Five percent of the 464 people surveyed said they were undecided in the poll, which was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.<\/p>\n

Martinez is riding high<\/h3>\n

Perhaps even more stunning was Martinez\u2019s 49 percent to 43 percent lead over Denish in a potential general-election contest. That poll, also conducted for KOB-TV, surveyed 1,405 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Martinez led among men. She led among voters in every age group. She led among Republicans and independents, college graduates and non-college graduates. In other words, Martinez is currently riding high.<\/p>\n

Denish led all other GOP candidates in similar polls. You can get more details on the polls here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I say this is what many Democrats have been worried about because the state Democratic Party was more focused on tearing down Martinez than Weh even before it became clear that Martinez was surging and more likely than Weh to become the GOP nominee. Many believe that, unless some scandal tanks Martinez\u2019s campaign, she\u2019s more likely than Weh to keep up with Denish.<\/p>\n

The last two weeks have been great for Martinez, starting with the poll that showed her tied with Weh. That proved that Martinez could keep up in the big leagues.<\/p>\n

Martinez then received the endorsement of Sarah Palin<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The tough-as-nails district attorney didn\u2019t wait for Weh to attack \u2013 she went for the kill, striking hard against the retired military man with a negative ad accusing him of supporting amnesty<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Those three events appear to have sent the Weh campaign into a panic. Weh initially responded by complaining about the negative attacks from Martinez. Then he hit back hard \u2013 but dishonestly \u2013 which led to the GOP party chairman publicly denouncing Weh\u2019s ads<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Martinez picked up the endorsements of the state\u2019s three largest newspapers. While the Weh campaign was flatlining, Martinez was surging.<\/p>\n

The honeymoon will end<\/h3>\n

There\u2019s lots of time before November, however, and if Martinez gets past Tuesday\u2019s primary election the honeymoon will soon end. The Denish campaign was quick to point out that, to date, \u00a0Martinez has been on the air five weeks longer than Denish and outspent Denish by more than $350,000 on TV ads. The spending discrepancy will soon be reversed.<\/p>\n

Martinez has another potential general-election issue. She has presented herself as the more conservative candidate in the primary race, especially with her hard-line stance on immigration. That won\u2019t resonate with many of the moderate voters Martinez will need to win the general election. Many of them may also be turned off by the Palin endorsement.<\/p>\n

Denish led among Hispanics in the Denish\/Martinez poll, 52 percent to 40 percent. Much has been said about the potential for a Hispanic woman to draw Hispanics to the GOP \u2013 and Martinez did better among Hispanics than the other GOP candidates in potential match-ups with Denish \u2013 but this is where Martinez\u2019s stance on immigration could come back to haunt her.<\/p>\n

For now, however, the Martinez campaign remains focused on getting past Weh. It will worry about Denish later.<\/p>\n

Martinez has shown a knack for making shrewd moves that have propelled her from a candidate many called \u201cregional\u201d to the likely GOP nominee. But Denish is formidable. She has $2.7 million on hand, and Martinez will have nothing after Tuesday\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n

Martinez is riding a wave right now that, unless Weh finds a way to stop it, will carry her past Tuesday and into a general-election contest with Denish. Denish would be the frontrunner in such a contest, regardless of what Wednesday\u2019s KOB-TV poll found. Martinez\u2019s journey would only get more difficult after the primary.<\/p>\n

Martinez would likely give Denish a run for her money. But much of the uncertainty among Democrats comes from the fact that a contest between a Democratic Anglo woman and a Republican Hispanic woman would create a dynamic the state has probably never seen. Who knows what would happen.<\/p>\n

The immediate question, however, is whether Martinez can keep the momentum going for a few more days. The next test happens tonight, when the GOP gubernatorial candidates debate live at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV<\/a> in Albuquerque.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Polls show Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez ahead in the primary and leading Democrat Diane Denish by six points in a potential November contest. Martinez is now the likely \u2013 but not certain \u2013 winner of the primary, but the honeymoon with a state that\u2019s just discovering her will soon end. Martinez\u2019s journey would only get more difficult after the primary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,107],"class_list":["post-17801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-roundhouse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17801"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17801\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}