{"id":16178,"date":"2010-04-19T08:35:31","date_gmt":"2010-04-19T14:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=16178"},"modified":"2010-04-19T08:37:01","modified_gmt":"2010-04-19T14:37:01","slug":"analyst-says-pearce-favored-in-cd2-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/04\/analyst-says-pearce-favored-in-cd2-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst says Pearce favored in CD2 race"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

Steve Pearce (Photo by Heath Haussamen)<\/p><\/div>\n

Stuart Rothenberg also says CD1 race should \u2018go down to the wire\u2019<\/h4>\n

Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has moved the 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague<\/a> and Republican Steve Pearce<\/a> from \u201ctoss-up\u201d to \u201clean Republican,\u201d and he thinks the 1st District race is going to be hot as well.<\/p>\n

Late last week, Rothenberg wrote on his Rothenberg Political Report<\/a> that \u201cSubstantial Republican gains (in the U.S. House) are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s when he moved the 2nd District race slightly in Pearce\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are thrilled to see that the momentum of the Pearce campaign is apparent to people across the country,\u201d Pearce Campaign Manager Alicia Collins said in a news release.<\/p>\n

Rothenberg added to his discussion of the Teague\/Pearce race today in an article<\/a> for Congressional Quarterly.<\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans seem almost certain to win back at least one of the state\u2019s congressional districts, the 2nd,\u201d he wrote. \u201c\u2026 Democrats don\u2019t put up much resistance when Teague\u2019s name appears on\u00a0\u201cmost vulnerable\u201d lists,<\/a> a clear indication that party strategists understand he has a very difficult path to re-election.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018A fighting chance\u2019 in CD1<\/h3>\n

<\/p>\n

Rothenberg also writes in the CQ article that Republicans have at least \u201ca fighting chance to take back the 1st district.\u201d Republican Jon Barela<\/a> is challenging U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich<\/a>, D-N.M.<\/p>\n

\u201cA year ago, I wouldn\u2019t have given you a nickel for GOP chances against Heinrich,\u201d Rothenberg wrote. \u201c\u2026 Heinrich still has to be regarded as the favorite in his bid for re-election, but the change in the national mood and an unusually appealing GOP challenger make this definitely a race to watch.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTwo years ago, when I interviewed Heinrich during one of his trips to Washington, D.C., I knew that he was the real deal,\u201d Rothenberg wrote. \u201cI got the same feeling after meeting Barela. These are two very good candidates in what has proved to be a very competitive congressional district.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rothenberg wrote that he\u2019s reclassifying the race from \u201cDemocrat favored\u201d to \u201cLeans Democrat\u201d \u2013 a more competitive category \u2013 and, \u201cas long as Barela raises enough money to be competitive and the current national mood is unchanged, I\u2019d expect the race in New Mexico\u2019s 1st district to go down to the wire.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has moved the 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce from \u201ctoss-up\u201d to \u201clean Republican,\u201d and he thinks the 1st District race is going to be hot as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,116],"class_list":["post-16178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}